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Ovation: South
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Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1843
Issue Time: 2025 Sep 02 0106 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 652
Issue Time: 2025 Sep 01 2241 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 288
Issue Time: 2025 Sep 01 2122 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2025 Sep 01 2101 UTC
Deviation: 58 nT
Station: CNB
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 600
Issue Time: 2025 Sep 01 2108 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2025 Sep 01 2107 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Sep 02 1459 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2586
Issue Time: 2025 Sep 01 2108 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1842
Issue Time: 2025 Sep 01 2108 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2090
Issue Time: 2025 Sep 01 2044 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2025 Sep 01 2041 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Sep 02 2059 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Comment: Minor geomagnetic storming due to arrival of the 30 Aug CME is expected to commence and persist through the majority of 02 Sep.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5067
Issue Time: 2025 Sep 01 2041 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Sep 01 2040 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Sep 02 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 244
Issue Time: 2025 Sep 01 2039 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2025 Sep 01 2045 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Sep 01 2145 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2025 Sep 01 2030 UTC
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 610
Issue Time: 2025 Sep 01 0934 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2025 Sep 01 0930 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Sep 01 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 01 September follow.
Solar flux 202 and estimated planetary A-index 16.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 02 September was 5.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 31 Aug 008
Estimated Ap 01 Sep 020
Predicted Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 055-012-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Active                05/35/25
Minor storm           15/25/05
Moderate storm        25/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  55/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 02 Sep - 04 Sep
             Sep 02    Sep 03    Sep 04
00-03UT        5.67      4.00      2.67
03-06UT        5.67      3.67      2.33
06-09UT        6.67      2.67      2.00
09-12UT        5.67      2.33      1.67
12-15UT        4.67      2.00      1.67
15-18UT        4.67      1.67      2.00
18-21UT        4.00      1.67      2.00
21-00UT        3.67      2.33      2.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 02-Sep 04 2025 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 02-Sep 04 2025

             Sep 02       Sep 03       Sep 04
00-03UT       6.00 (G2)    4.00         2.67
03-06UT       6.67 (G3)    3.67         2.33
06-09UT       5.00 (G1)    2.67         2.00
09-12UT       5.00 (G1)    2.33         1.67
12-15UT       5.67 (G2)    2.00         1.67
15-18UT       5.00 (G1)    1.67         2.00
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    1.67         2.00
21-00UT       3.67         2.33         2.33

Rationale: On 02 Sep, periods of G3 (Strong) storming are likely, with a
chance for G4 (Severe) storm periods, as CME effects persist. By 03 Sep,
the solar wind environment should decrease to quiet to active levels as
CME influences diminish.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 02-Sep 04 2025

              Sep 02  Sep 03  Sep 04
S1 or greater   60%     10%     10%

Rationale: S1 conditions are likely on 02 Sep, with a slight chance for
S1 levels on 03-04 Sep.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 02-Sep 04 2025

              Sep 02        Sep 03        Sep 04
R1-R2           60%           60%           55%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           15%

Rationale: M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a
slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater), through 04
Sep.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decreased to low levels, with only C-flare activity
observed. Region 4197 (S18W38, Ehi/beta-gamma) produced C4.9 and C3.9
flares at 01/0325 UTC and 01/1922 UTC, respectively, as it increased
slightly in length while undergoing minor decay in its intermediate
area. Region 4199 (N04W22, Cai/beta) gained additional spots, but
remained relatively quiet. Region 4207 (N30E52, Eao/beta) rotated into
better viewing conditions revealing trailing spots, but remained
relatively quiet as well. New spots were noted near N18W25, but went
unnumbered due to a lack of activity and history. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance
for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater), through 04 Sep primarily
due to the flare potential exhibited from AR 4197.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually increased to peak flux of
6.47 pfu at 01/1010 UTC likely due to shock front influences ahead of
the 30 Aug CME.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 02 and 04 Sep with a chance for high levels on 03 Sep
due to CME influences. There remains a chance for the 10 MeV proton flux
to reach the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold early to midday
on 02 Sep with any secondary shock enhancement. Probabilities decrease
to just a slight chance on 03-04 Sep with a large event from AR 4197
being the most likely threat.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions were nominal overall with some weak negative
polarity CH HSS influences until approximately 01/2025 UTC and the
arrival of what was likely the the 30 Aug CME. Total field increased to
peaks ranging from 20-26 nT. The Bz component was mostly oriented
northward with brief deflections southward of -6 to -7 nT. Solar wind
speeds abruptly increased to roughly 600-675 km/s. Phi was predominantly
oriented in the negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Strong enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected to
continue through 02 Sep due to CME influences before beginning a waning
trend on 03 Sep that continues into 04 Sep.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels
late in the period with a deviation of 58 nT reported at the Canberra
magnetometer site.

.Forecast...
G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming periods are likely primarily during the
first half of 02 Aug with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) periods expected
thereafter. Unsettled to Active conditions are then expected on 03 Sep
as CME effects begin to wane with primarily quiet conditions, with
isolated unsettled periods, then prevailing on 04 Sep.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Sep 01     215          20          6
2025 Sep 02     210          55          7
2025 Sep 03     200          10          4
2025 Sep 04     195           5          2
2025 Sep 05     185           5          2
2025 Sep 06     175           8          3
2025 Sep 07     160          12          4
2025 Sep 08     140          12          4
2025 Sep 09     130          12          4
2025 Sep 10     125          10          4
2025 Sep 11     125           5          2
2025 Sep 12     120           5          2
2025 Sep 13     120           5          2
2025 Sep 14     120           5          2
2025 Sep 15     120          20          5
2025 Sep 16     125          15          4
2025 Sep 17     125           8          3
2025 Sep 18     130          10          4
2025 Sep 19     140           8          3
2025 Sep 20     150           8          3
2025 Sep 21     175           8          3
2025 Sep 22     180           8          3
2025 Sep 23     180           8          3
2025 Sep 24     180           5          2
2025 Sep 25     180           5          2
2025 Sep 26     180           5          2
2025 Sep 27     170           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey