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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2609
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 23 1801 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5156
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 23 1708 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Nov 23 1708 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Nov 23 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1077
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 23 1650 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Nov 24:  None (Below G1)   Nov 25:  G1 (Minor)   Nov 26:  G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 22 November follow.
Solar flux 119 and estimated planetary A-index 6.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 23 November was 3.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 21 Nov 008
Estimated Ap 22 Nov 005
Predicted Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 005-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 23 Nov - 25 Nov
             Nov 23    Nov 24    Nov 25
00-03UT        1.67      1.67      1.67
03-06UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
06-09UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
09-12UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
12-15UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
15-18UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
18-21UT        1.67      1.67      1.67
21-00UT        1.67      1.67      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 23-Nov 25 2025 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 23-Nov 25 2025

             Nov 23       Nov 24       Nov 25
00-03UT       3.00         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       1.67         1.33         1.33
06-09UT       1.67         1.33         1.00
09-12UT       2.33         1.33         1.00
12-15UT       2.00         1.00         1.33
15-18UT       0.67         1.33         1.33
18-21UT       1.00         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       0.33         1.67         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 23-Nov 25 2025

              Nov 23  Nov 24  Nov 25
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 23-Nov 25 2025

              Nov 23        Nov 24        Nov 25
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 23-25 Nov.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 4291 (S13E60, Eai/beta),
the most complex region on the disk, produced an impulsive C6.3 flare at
22/1900 UTC, the stongest of the period. The remaining numbered active
regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed
CMEs were noted in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels on 23-25 Nov, with
a slight chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) mainly due to
the flare potential of Region 4291.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux in expected to remain at
background levels through 25 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near background levels. Total magnetic field
strength was between 1-9 nT. The Bz component reached as far south as -8
nT at 23/1117 UTC. Phi angle suggested the passage of a solar sector
boundary crossing around 23/0610 UTC, with the phi angle transitioning
from a negative solar sector to positive.

.Forecast...
Mostly nominal conditions are likely for 23-25 Nov.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 23-25 Nov as
nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Nov 17     125          22          5
2025 Nov 18     120          12          4
2025 Nov 19     115          10          3
2025 Nov 20     115           8          3
2025 Nov 21     110          12          4
2025 Nov 22     110           8          3
2025 Nov 23     105           5          2
2025 Nov 24     110          15          4
2025 Nov 25     110          18          5
2025 Nov 26     110          25          5
2025 Nov 27     120          20          5
2025 Nov 28     130          10          3
2025 Nov 29     130          12          4
2025 Nov 30     135          15          4
2025 Dec 01     140           8          3
2025 Dec 02     145          18          5
2025 Dec 03     150          25          5
2025 Dec 04     150          20          5
2025 Dec 05     150          12          4
2025 Dec 06     150          10          3
2025 Dec 07     145           8          3
2025 Dec 08     140           5          2
2025 Dec 09     140           5          2
2025 Dec 10     130           5          2
2025 Dec 11     120           5          2
2025 Dec 12     115           5          2
2025 Dec 13     115          25          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey