Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5209
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 08 0555 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5208
Valid From: 2026 Jan 08 0120 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 08 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2166
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 08 0143 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jan 08 0140 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jan 08 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2621
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 08 0139 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5208
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 08 0123 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jan 08 0120 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jan 08 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3596
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 07 1522 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3595
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 06 1540 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1326 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 07 January follow.
Solar flux 135 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 08 January was 3.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 06 Jan 004
Estimated Ap 07 Jan 005
Predicted Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 008-024-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Active                20/35/35
Minor storm           10/35/25
Moderate storm        01/20/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 08 Jan - 10 Jan
             Jan 08    Jan 09    Jan 10
00-03UT        2.33      2.00      3.67
03-06UT        1.67      3.33      4.00
06-09UT        2.00      5.00      3.33
09-12UT        2.33      4.67      3.00
12-15UT        2.33      4.00      2.33
15-18UT        2.33      3.00      2.00
18-21UT        2.33      3.00      2.33
21-00UT        2.33      3.67      2.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 08-Jan 10 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 08-Jan 10 2026

             Jan 08       Jan 09       Jan 10
00-03UT       3.67         2.00         3.67
03-06UT       2.67         3.33         4.00
06-09UT       2.33         5.00 (G1)    3.33
09-12UT       2.33         4.67 (G1)    3.00
12-15UT       2.33         4.00         2.33
15-18UT       2.67         3.00         2.00
18-21UT       2.33         3.00         2.33
21-00UT       3.00         3.67         2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are anticipated on
09 Jan due to a coronal high speed stream interacting with a potential
glancing blow from a CME that left the Sun on 06 Jan.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 08-Jan 10 2026

              Jan 08  Jan 09  Jan 10
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storm 08-10 Jan.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 08-Jan 10 2026

              Jan 08        Jan 09        Jan 10
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, on 08-10 Jan.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. The largest flare was a C7.4/Sf
at 07/0612 UTC from Region 4334 (S16E07, Cai/beta-gamma). Slight growth
and separation was observed in this region. Growth and increased
magnetic complexity was observed in Region 4336 (S10E41,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta). New Region 4337 (N25W35, Cro/beta) was
numbered.

Multiple faint CMEs were observed off the SE limb
originating from Region 4334; however modelling appeared to show no
Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance (45%) for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance (10%) for isolated
X-class flares (R3-Strong) over 08-10 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
1,260 pfu observed at 07/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels through 08 Jan followed by a decrease to moderate levels on
09-10 Jan with the arrival of a CH HSS. There is a slight chance (10%)
for a greater than 10 MeV proton event through 10 Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters became mildly enhanced after 07/1247 UTC, with the
total magnetic field (Bt) ending the reporting period at 10 nT and the
Bz (north-south) component deflecting strongly southward after 07/1650
UTC, ending the reporting period at -9 nT. Solar wind speed
remained nominal between 311-370 km/s. Phi angle was in a negative
(towards the Sun) sector.

.Forecast...
Mildly enhanced conditions are expected on 08 Jan. A further enhancement
is expected early on 09 Jan with the arrival of a CIR/CH HSS and
possible influences from the 06 Jan CME. Solar wind speeds in excess of
600 km/s is likely based on recurrent values. HSS influence is expected
to persist through 10 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 08 Jan, due
to the potential arrival of CIR/CH HSS influences late in the UTC day,
possibly compounded with influence from a CME that left the Sun on 06
Jan. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are expected early on 09
Jan as the disturbance continues to pass, with unsettled to active
levels likely on 10 Jan as we fully enter the CH HSS.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jan 05     155          10          3
2026 Jan 06     150           5          2
2026 Jan 07     145           5          2
2026 Jan 08     140           5          2
2026 Jan 09     135           8          3
2026 Jan 10     135           8          3
2026 Jan 11     130           5          2
2026 Jan 12     135          10          3
2026 Jan 13     135          15          5
2026 Jan 14     140          15          5
2026 Jan 15     145           5          2
2026 Jan 16     145           5          2
2026 Jan 17     145          20          5
2026 Jan 18     140          20          5
2026 Jan 19     145          18          5
2026 Jan 20     150          18          5
2026 Jan 21     155           8          3
2026 Jan 22     160           8          3
2026 Jan 23     165           6          2
2026 Jan 24     170           6          2
2026 Jan 25     175           6          2
2026 Jan 26     175           6          2
2026 Jan 27     170           8          3
2026 Jan 28     165          12          4
2026 Jan 29     160          20          5
2026 Jan 30     155          10          3
2026 Jan 31     160           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.