Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3699
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 13 1333 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2026 Jun 13 1332 UTC
Station: GOES-19

Comment:

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5364
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 13 0127 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jun 13 0126 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jun 13 2359 UTC
Warning Conditions: Onset

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 June follow.
Solar flux 128 and estimated planetary A-index 16.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 13 June was 2.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 11 Jun 018
Estimated Ap 12 Jun 021
Predicted Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 036-022-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Active                05/35/40
Minor storm           35/40/10
Moderate storm        50/10/01
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 13 Jun - 15 Jun
             Jun 13    Jun 14    Jun 15
00-03UT        4.67      4.67      3.00
03-06UT        3.33      4.00      2.33
06-09UT        5.67      3.33      3.67
09-12UT        3.00      3.33      2.67
12-15UT        4.67      2.67      2.67
15-18UT        5.00      2.67      2.00
18-21UT        4.33      3.67      2.33
21-00UT        4.33      4.00      2.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 13-Jun 15 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 13-Jun 15 2026

             Jun 13       Jun 14       Jun 15
00-03UT       3.00         4.67 (G1)    2.67
03-06UT       3.00         3.67         3.00
06-09UT       2.67         2.67         3.67
09-12UT       2.67         2.67         3.00
12-15UT       2.67         1.67         2.67
15-18UT       3.67         1.67         1.67
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         1.67
21-00UT       5.67 (G2)    2.67         2.00

Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are
likely on 13 Jun, with periods of G1 storming likely on 14 Jun, due to
negative polarity CH HSS and CME influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 13-Jun 15 2026

              Jun 13  Jun 14  Jun 15
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 13-Jun 15 2026

              Jun 13        Jun 14        Jun 15
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 13-15 Jun.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels this period. Regions 4464 (S13W37,
Dao/beta) and 4465 (N08E11, Hax/alpha) exhibited signs of decay, while
Region 4463 (N17W34, Hsx/alpha) remained unchanged.

A CME associated with a filament eruption near N02E40 at around 12/1600
UTC, and first visible off the NE in LASCO C2 imagery at 12/1650 UTC,
has been analyzed to have an Earth-directed component with a likely
arrival on 16 Jun.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 15 Jun, with
a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 13-15 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to continue at background levels through 15 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected continued negative polarity CH HSS
influences, combined with likely CME influences after 13/0945 UTC. Total
magnetic field strength reached a peak of 8 nT, while the Bz component
varied between +/-5 nT throughout the period. Solar wind speeds
increased from ~540 km/s to a peak of ~626 km/s after 13/0945 UTC. Phi
angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over 13-15 Jun
due to continued -CH HSS influences (13-15 Jun), and the passage of CMEs
(from 09 and 11 Jun) over 13-14 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under -CH
HSS and CME influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm
levels on 13 Jun due to -CH HSS influences and the passage of CMEs that
left the Sun on 09 Jun and 11 Jun. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are
likely on 14 Jun, with periods of active conditions likely on 15 Jun, as
-CH HSS and CME influences wane.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 08     135          50          7
2026 Jun 09     132          32          6
2026 Jun 10     130          12          3
2026 Jun 11     130          15          3
2026 Jun 12     128          10          3
2026 Jun 13     128           6          2
2026 Jun 14     120           6          2
2026 Jun 15     118           8          3
2026 Jun 16     120           8          3
2026 Jun 17     122           5          2
2026 Jun 18     122           5          2
2026 Jun 19     125           5          2
2026 Jun 20     125           5          2
2026 Jun 21     128           8          3
2026 Jun 22     130           8          3
2026 Jun 23     132          10          4
2026 Jun 24     134          15          4
2026 Jun 25     134          15          4
2026 Jun 26     132          15          4
2026 Jun 27     130          10          3
2026 Jun 28     132           8          3
2026 Jun 29     130           6          2
2026 Jun 30     128           8          3
2026 Jul 01     125           5          2
2026 Jul 02     130           5          2
2026 Jul 03     128          12          3
2026 Jul 04     125           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.