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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3593
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 03 1348 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3592
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 21 1425 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4197 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 03 January follow.
Solar flux 165 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 04 January was 0.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 02 Jan 024
Estimated Ap 03 Jan 022
Predicted Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 018-012-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           35/15/10
Moderate storm        15/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 04 Jan - 06 Jan
             Jan 04    Jan 05    Jan 06
00-03UT        3.67      3.00      2.00
03-06UT        3.33      2.00      1.67
06-09UT        2.00      2.00      2.33
09-12UT        3.00      2.67      2.00
12-15UT        3.00      2.67      2.00
15-18UT        2.00      2.67      2.00
18-21UT        4.67      2.67      2.33
21-00UT        3.67      3.00      3.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 04-Jan 06 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 04-Jan 06 2026

             Jan 04       Jan 05       Jan 06
00-03UT       3.33         3.00         2.00
03-06UT       3.33         2.00         1.67
06-09UT       2.00         2.00         2.33
09-12UT       3.00         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       3.00         2.67         2.00
15-18UT       2.00         2.67         2.00
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         2.33
21-00UT       3.67         3.00         3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 04 Jan due to the
anticipated effects of passing CME that left the Sun on 02 Jan.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 04-Jan 06 2026

              Jan 04  Jan 05  Jan 06
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms over 04-06 Jan due to the eruptive potential of
multiple regions on the visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 04-Jan 06 2026

              Jan 04        Jan 05        Jan 06
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 04-06 Jan due to the flare
potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels due to C-class flares from Regions
4324 (N24W28, Dai/beta) and 4325 (S08W38, Eko/beta-gamma). The largest
of these flares was an impulsive C8.3 at 03/1729 UTC from Region 4325.
Both of these regions continued to exhibit decay, each losing
intermediate and trailer spots during the period. Region 4323 (S17W28,
Dai/beta) was the only region to show signs of development, increasing
in size, spot count and magnetic complexity. New Region 4335 (S22E02,
Hsx/alpha) was numbered. No Earth-direct CMEs were observed at available
coronagraph imagery during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain low with a chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for isolated X-class
flares (R3-Strong) over 04-06 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
1,940 pfu at 03/1625 UTC before decreasing to moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
04-06 Jan. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux crossing the threshold of 10 pfu (S1-Minor) through 06 Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained enhanced throughout the day, indicative
of negative polarity CH HSS influence and interaction with CMEs that
left the Sun between 28-31 Dec. Solar Wind speeds briefly reached
near 600 km/s early in the period before gradually returning to around
500 km/s by the end of the period. The total magnetic field strength
(Bt) ranged from 3-7 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 7
nT. The phi angle remained mostly in the negative sector, suggesting
that the Earth is under the influence of the negative CH HSS.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be increasingly disturbed on 04
Jan due to a combination of the ongoing influences of the negative CH
HSS and the arrival of the CMEs that left the Sun on 02 Jan. Solar wind
parameters are expected to slowly return to more ambient conditions on
05-06 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels during
the period, reflecting the influence of the negative polarity CH HSS
and, potentially, the early disturbances caused by the periphery of CMEs
that left the Sun between 28-31 Dec.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels,
with G1 (Minor) storming likely on 04 Jan due to the combination of
the ongoing HSS activity and influence of a CME that left the Sun on 02
Jan. On 05-06 Jan, geomagnetic activity levels are expected to decrease
to quiet to unsettled levels as CME/CH HSS effects diminish.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 29     185           5          2
2025 Dec 30     175           5          2
2025 Dec 31     170           8          3
2026 Jan 01     165          15          4
2026 Jan 02     160          18          4
2026 Jan 03     160          15          4
2026 Jan 04     155          12          4
2026 Jan 05     150           5          2
2026 Jan 06     155           5          2
2026 Jan 07     140           5          2
2026 Jan 08     130           5          2
2026 Jan 09     125          15          4
2026 Jan 10     120          10          4
2026 Jan 11     120           5          2
2026 Jan 12     120          10          4
2026 Jan 13     120          15          4
2026 Jan 14     115          15          4
2026 Jan 15     120           5          2
2026 Jan 16     120           5          2
2026 Jan 17     125          20          5
2026 Jan 18     135          20          5
2026 Jan 19     145          18          4
2026 Jan 20     155          18          4
2026 Jan 21     165           8          3
2026 Jan 22     165           8          3
2026 Jan 23     175           5          2
2026 Jan 24     175           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey