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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1482
Issue Time: 2026 May 02 1111 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 02 1051 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 641 km/s

Comment: Likely associated with C-class flare acitivity originating from AR 4420 on the west limb.
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1481
Issue Time: 2026 May 01 1550 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 May 01 1535 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 593 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 01 May follow.
Solar flux 145 and estimated planetary A-index 14.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 02 May was 2.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 30 Apr 015
Estimated Ap 01 May 015
Predicted Ap 02 May-04 May 010-012-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
Active                20/35/20
Minor storm           05/20/05
Moderate storm        01/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 02 May - 04 May
             May 02    May 03    May 04
00-03UT        2.33      2.67      2.67
03-06UT        2.33      3.00      3.00
06-09UT        3.00      4.00      2.67
09-12UT        2.67      2.67      2.67
12-15UT        2.00      2.33      1.67
15-18UT        2.00      1.67      1.67
18-21UT        1.67      1.67      0.67
21-00UT        2.67      2.67      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 02-May 04 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 02-May 04 2026

             May 02       May 03       May 04
00-03UT       2.67         2.67         2.67
03-06UT       1.33         3.00         3.00
06-09UT       1.00         4.00         2.67
09-12UT       2.00         2.67         2.67
12-15UT       2.33         2.33         1.67
15-18UT       2.67         1.67         1.67
18-21UT       3.00         1.67         0.67
21-00UT       3.00         2.67         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 02-May 04 2026

              May 02  May 03  May 04
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 02-May 04 2026

              May 02        May 03        May 04
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to
M-class flare events will persist through 04 May primarily due to the
current flare potential being presented by Regions 4424, 4425, 4428,
4429 and 4431.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 4420 (N16W90, Cao/beta) produced an
impulsive C7.4/Sf flare at 01/1529 UTC, with associated Type-II radio
sweep (est. 593 km/s), as it approached the west limb. Additionally,
this region was then also responsible for a C4.0 flare that peaked at
02/1104 UTC and was accompanied by another Type-II radio sweep (est. 641
km/s). Growth was observed in Regions 4424 (N17W56, Eai/beta), 4428
(S23W33, Dai/beta-gamma), 4429 (S04E13, Dsi/beta), and newly-numbered
4431 (S16E46, Dsi/beta). Regions 4430 (N17W38, Cro/beta) and 4432
(N12E61, Axx/alpha) were relatively quiet.

Further analysis of a CME that was first seen in C2 coronagraph imagery
at approximately 01/1528 UTC determined the event to be a miss well
behind Earths orbit. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 02-04 May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 02-04 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 04 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained consistent with ongoing negative polarity
CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 6 nT, and the
Bz component briefly reached -5 nT. Solar wind speeds generally averaged
near 450 km/s with lulls between approximately 405-420 km/s.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced under negative
polarity CH HSS influences over 02-04 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels this period
in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled on 02 and 04
May, with active conditions likely on 03 May, due to continued negative
polarity CH HSS influences.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Apr 27     155          12          4
2026 Apr 28     150           7          2
2026 Apr 29     150          10          3
2026 Apr 30     152          14          4
2026 May 01     152           8          3
2026 May 02     148           5          2
2026 May 03     142           8          3
2026 May 04     140           8          3
2026 May 05     140           5          2
2026 May 06     135           5          2
2026 May 07     135          20          5
2026 May 08     135          15          4
2026 May 09     120           8          3
2026 May 10     110           5          2
2026 May 11     115           5          2
2026 May 12     115           5          2
2026 May 13     120           5          2
2026 May 14     120           5          2
2026 May 15     118          25          5
2026 May 16     130          20          5
2026 May 17     135          20          4
2026 May 18     135          15          4
2026 May 19     135           5          2
2026 May 20     140           5          2
2026 May 21     140           8          3
2026 May 22     145          10          3
2026 May 23     145          12          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey