Presets:


close
Ovation: South
North
Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 707
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 1041 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 24 0840 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1479
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 0928 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 24 0815 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1293 km/s

Comment: Reissued with adjusted shock speed.
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1478
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 0927 UTC

CANCEL ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Cancel Serial Number: 1477
Original Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 0857 UTC

Comment: Reissuing with corrected shock speed.
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1477
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 0857 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 24 0815 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1869 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 908
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 0838 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 24 0809 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Apr 24 0811 UTC
End Time: 2026 Apr 24 0815 UTC
Duration: 6 minutes
Peak Flux: 570 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 128 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 216
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 0826 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 24 0801 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Apr 24 0813 UTC
End Time: 2026 Apr 24 0818 UTC
X-ray Class: X2.5
Optical Class: 2b
Location: N20W90
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 524
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 0812 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Apr 24 0812 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3684
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 0505 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3683
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 19 1920 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3446 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 215
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 0131 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 24 0051 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Apr 24 0107 UTC
End Time: 2026 Apr 24 0113 UTC
X-ray Class: X2.4
Location: N17W71
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Comment: Accompanied by a tenflare with a castelli-U signature. No radio observations currently available.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 907
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 0129 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 24 0103 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Apr 24 0104 UTC
End Time: 2026 Apr 24 0109 UTC
Duration: 6 minutes
Peak Flux: 570 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 128 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 523
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 24 0108 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2026 Apr 24 0105 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 906
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 23 1723 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 23 1703 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Apr 23 1705 UTC
End Time: 2026 Apr 23 1707 UTC
Duration: 4 minutes
Peak Flux: 220 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 116 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 905
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 23 1452 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 23 1355 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Apr 23 1356 UTC
End Time: 2026 Apr 23 1357 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 170 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 116 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 23 April follow.
Solar flux 128 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 24 April was 2.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong.
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 22 Apr 005
Estimated Ap 23 Apr 010
Predicted Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 008-012-022

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Active                25/40/30
Minor storm           05/10/45
Moderate storm        01/01/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 24 Apr - 26 Apr
             Apr 24    Apr 25    Apr 26
00-03UT        2.33      3.00      3.67
03-06UT        2.67      2.67      3.33
06-09UT        2.67      2.33      3.00
09-12UT        1.67      2.00      2.33
12-15UT        1.33      2.00      3.67
15-18UT        2.00      2.33      4.67
18-21UT        2.00      3.33      4.33
21-00UT        2.33      3.67      3.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 24-Apr 26 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 24-Apr 26 2026

             Apr 24       Apr 25       Apr 26
00-03UT       2.33         3.00         3.67
03-06UT       2.67         2.67         3.33
06-09UT       2.67         2.33         3.00
09-12UT       1.67         2.00         2.33
12-15UT       1.33         2.00         3.67
15-18UT       2.00         2.33         4.67 (G1)
18-21UT       2.00         3.33         4.33
21-00UT       2.33         3.67         3.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 26 Apr due to
anticipated influence from a CME that left the Sun on 23 Apr.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 24-Apr 26 2026

              Apr 24  Apr 25  Apr 26
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms over 24-26 Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 23 2026 1708 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 24-Apr 26 2026

              Apr 24        Apr 25        Apr 26
R1-R2           55%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts remain likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 24-26 Apr.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels with five M-class flares (R1-Minor)
observed during the reporting period. The largest event was an M4.9
flare at 23/1708 UTC from Region 4419 (N15W63, Eso/beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk.
Region 4419 underwent significant evolution, including flux emergence in
the leading spots, flux consolidation in the intermediary regions, and
the development of a delta configuration in the leader alongside a
mixed-polarity gamma configuration. Region 4420 (N16E25,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) also exhibited growth and consolidation,
particularly within the trailing and intermediate spots, with increased
shearing noted in intermediate areas. The remaining regions on the disk
were in decay.

Notable eruptive activity was observed throughout the period, with
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with each of the M-class
flares. A CME was observed to the NW following an M1.6 flare from Region
4419 at 23/0435 UTC and was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 0500
UTC, while a CME to the NE was associated with an M1.2/1F flare from
Region 4420 at 23/0508 UTC (first visible at 0512 UTC). These events
were accompanied by Type II (1033 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions.
Modeling indicates the NW CME will pass ahead of Earth, while the NE CME
is expected to result in a glancing impact on 26 Apr.

Subsequent flaring from Region 4419 that are associated with observed
eruptions include: an M4.3/Sn flare from Region 4419 at 23/0853 UTC
produced a NW CME (first seen at 0912 UTC) associated with Type II
emissions (722 km/s) and 10cm radio bursts, an M1.7/Sf flare from Region
4419 at 23/1400 UTC launched a NE CME (first seen at 1424 UTC), and an
M4.9 event at 23/1708 UTC produced an additional NE CME (first seen in
GOES-19 CCOR1 at 1815 UTC). While analysis of the eruption associated
with the M4.9 flare is ongoing, none of these are anticipated to impact
Earth.

Finally, a diffuse eruption was observed in STEREO COR2 imagery at 1223
UTC and LASCO C2 at 1224 UTC. The source remains uncertain, with
possibilities including a SE filament eruption or NE coronal dimming.
Analysis of this event, as well as the potential for interaction between
the multiple preceding CMEs, is ongoing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels over through 26 Apr,
with a chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater) flares primarily driven
by the ongoing complexity of Regions 4419 and 4420. The likelihood for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio blackouts is anticipated to
increase beginning 24 Apr as a large sunspot region, currently
identified in Solar Orbiter imagery beyond the east limb, rotates onto
the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak of 4,020 pfu at 23/0010 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels through 26 Apr, primarily influenced by a weak positive
polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Transient flux
suppressions are possible on 26 Apr from the anticipated glancing
influence of the CME associated with the M1.2/1F flare from Region 4420.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels, though there is a slight chance (10%) for levels to exceed S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm thresholds due to the flare potential of
Region 4419 as it rotates toward the western limb.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS influences. Total magnetic
field (Bt) averaged ~5 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) variable
between +/- 5 nT. The wind speed had a very gradual downward trend,
beginning the reporting period with an average of 525 km/s and ending
with an average range of ~450 km/s. While phi was predominantly
negative (towards the Sun), it frequently fluctuated between the
positive and negative sectors.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to experience mild enhancements
beginning 24 Apr due to the onset of a +CH HSS. Further enhancements are
anticipated on 26 Apr associated with the arrival of the glancing
influence from the CME originating from the M1.2/1F flare from Region
4420.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on
24-25 Apr, with isolated active periods possible as the +CH HSS
influences persist. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming conditions
are possible on 26 Apr in response to the arrival of the glancing CME
impact.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Apr 20     105          18          4
2026 Apr 21     110          15          4
2026 Apr 22     120           8          3
2026 Apr 23     125           5          2
2026 Apr 24     120           8          3
2026 Apr 25     115           8          3
2026 Apr 26     120           5          2
2026 Apr 27     125           5          2
2026 Apr 28     125           5          2
2026 Apr 29     125          20          5
2026 Apr 30     125          18          5
2026 May 01     125          12          4
2026 May 02     125          10          4
2026 May 03     115           8          3
2026 May 04     108           8          3
2026 May 05     105           5          2
2026 May 06     100           5          2
2026 May 07      95          20          5
2026 May 08      90          15          4
2026 May 09      90           8          3
2026 May 10      95           5          2
2026 May 11     100           5          2
2026 May 12     105           5          2
2026 May 13     110           5          2
2026 May 14     110           5          2
2026 May 15     105          25          5
2026 May 16     105          20          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey