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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3561
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 20 1046 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3560
Begin Time: 2025 Nov 19 1310 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1438 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 696
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 20 0059 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Nov 20 0023 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1444
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 19 2235 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Nov 19 2215 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 695 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3560
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 19 1341 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 19 1310 UTC
Station: GOES19
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 19 November follow.
Solar flux 123 and estimated planetary A-index 3.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 20 November was 1.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 18 Nov 005
Estimated Ap 19 Nov 003
Predicted Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 012-015-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Active                35/35/20
Minor storm           25/25/10
Moderate storm        05/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 20 Nov - 22 Nov
             Nov 20    Nov 21    Nov 22
00-03UT        1.67      4.00      3.33
03-06UT        1.33      3.67      2.67
06-09UT        1.33      3.00      2.33
09-12UT        1.33      3.00      1.67
12-15UT        3.33      2.33      1.33
15-18UT        3.00      2.33      1.33
18-21UT        3.33      2.67      1.33
21-00UT        4.00      2.67      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 20-Nov 22 2025

             Nov 20       Nov 21       Nov 22
00-03UT       1.67         4.00         3.33
03-06UT       1.33         3.67         2.67
06-09UT       1.33         3.00         2.33
09-12UT       1.33         3.00         1.67
12-15UT       3.33         2.33         1.33
15-18UT       3.00         2.33         1.33
18-21UT       3.33         2.67         1.33
21-00UT       4.00         2.67         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025

              Nov 20  Nov 21  Nov 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025

              Nov 20        Nov 21        Nov 22
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 19-21 Nov.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C9.9 at
19/0953 UTC from a Region just beyond the NE limb near N17. Region 4284
(S07W44, Dai/beta) grew slightly in the early part of the period, but
was in decay after 19/0900 UTC. New Region 4287 (N02E65, Hsx/alpha) was
numbered. A Type II radio sweep (est 695 km/s) was observed at 19/2215
UTC, likely associated with a B9.0 flare at 19/2215 UTC from just beyond
the East limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with slight chance for
moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over 19-21 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,438 pfu at 19/1350 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on
20 Nov before decreasing to moderate levels on 21 Nov following CH HSS
onset. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels through 22 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged
from 346-421 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-8 nT while the Bz component
was between +8/-2 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
By mid to late on 20 Nov, a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to
become geoeffective causing a minor enhancement in the solar wind. HSS
activity is expected to continue into 21 Nov and wane through 22 Nov.
Solar wind speeds in the 450-550 km/s range is likely based on recurrent
values.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels are expected beginning mid to late on 20 Nov
and continuing through 21 Nov with CH HSS onset. Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on 22 Nov as HSS conditions diminish.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Nov 17     125          22          5
2025 Nov 18     120          12          4
2025 Nov 19     115          10          3
2025 Nov 20     115           8          3
2025 Nov 21     110          12          4
2025 Nov 22     110           8          3
2025 Nov 23     105           5          2
2025 Nov 24     110          15          4
2025 Nov 25     110          18          5
2025 Nov 26     110          25          5
2025 Nov 27     120          20          5
2025 Nov 28     130          10          3
2025 Nov 29     130          12          4
2025 Nov 30     135          15          4
2025 Dec 01     140           8          3
2025 Dec 02     145          18          5
2025 Dec 03     150          25          5
2025 Dec 04     150          20          5
2025 Dec 05     150          12          4
2025 Dec 06     150          10          3
2025 Dec 07     145           8          3
2025 Dec 08     140           5          2
2025 Dec 09     140           5          2
2025 Dec 10     130           5          2
2025 Dec 11     120           5          2
2025 Dec 12     115           5          2
2025 Dec 13     115          25          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey