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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2601
Issue Time: 2025 Oct 25 0557 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5118
Issue Time: 2025 Oct 25 0548 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Oct 25 0548 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Oct 25 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 24 October follow.
Solar flux 134 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 25 October was 2.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 23 Oct 006
Estimated Ap 24 Oct 010
Predicted Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 010-008-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Active                25/20/30
Minor storm           05/01/10
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 25 Oct - 27 Oct
             Oct 25    Oct 26    Oct 27
00-03UT        2.67      2.00      2.00
03-06UT        2.67      1.67      2.00
06-09UT        2.33      1.67      2.67
09-12UT        2.33      2.00      3.67
12-15UT        2.33      2.00      2.67
15-18UT        2.33      2.33      2.67
18-21UT        2.00      2.67      2.67
21-00UT        2.33      2.33      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 25-Oct 27 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 25-Oct 27 2025

             Oct 25       Oct 26       Oct 27
00-03UT       2.67         2.00         2.00
03-06UT       3.67         1.67         2.00
06-09UT       2.67         1.67         2.67
09-12UT       2.33         2.00         3.67
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         2.67
15-18UT       2.33         2.33         2.67
18-21UT       2.00         2.67         2.67
21-00UT       2.33         2.33         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2025

              Oct 25  Oct 26  Oct 27
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2025

              Oct 25        Oct 26        Oct 27
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts persists over 25-27 Oct.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels, with few C-class flares and six
numbered active regions on the visible solar disk, all with simple
magnetic complexity (alpha or beta). Only Regions 4262 (S14W26,
Dai/beta) and 4266 (N15E23, Dao/beta) showed growth during the period.
The spotless Region 4256 (S16, L=158) produced the largest flare of the
period, a C3.0/Sf peaking at 24/0257 UTC, and also a disappearing solar
filament at 24/1840 UTC (observed by Air Force SOON optical station and
SUVI 304A imagery).

Other solar activity included two filament eruptions: the first around
24/1200 UTC(centered near S15E43) and the later around 24/1550 UTC
(centered near S05E18). The first filament might be associated with a
narrow CME observed on STEREO/COR2 coronagraph imagery beginning at
24/1238 UTC. Analysis and modeling are ongoing for this CME event. No
other Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain low, with a slight chance for
isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over 25-27 Oct.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to moderate
levels during the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over the next 3 days (25-27 Oct). The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is likely to remain near background levels over 25-27
Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a negative polarity CH
HSS. Total magnetic field strength oscillated between 5-8 nT. The Bz
component briefly reached as far south as -7 nT. Solar wind increased
from near 500 km/s to around 600 km/s at 24/2100 UTC. Phi angle was
primarily oriented in the negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to continue under negative polarity CH
HSS influences over the 25-26 Oct. Further enhancements are likely on 27
Oct due to anticipated influence of a CME that left the Sun on 23 Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels during the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels
over 25-26 Oct (due to the influence of the CH HSS). Active levels are
likely on 27 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of the CME that left the
Sun on 23 Oct.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Oct 20     150          12          4
2025 Oct 21     152          10          3
2025 Oct 22     150           8          3
2025 Oct 23     145           5          2
2025 Oct 24     150          10          3
2025 Oct 25     150          10          3
2025 Oct 26     150           5          2
2025 Oct 27     150           5          2
2025 Oct 28     145          25          5
2025 Oct 29     145          35          6
2025 Oct 30     145          25          5
2025 Oct 31     140          15          4
2025 Nov 01     140           8          3
2025 Nov 02     140           5          2
2025 Nov 03     135           5          2
2025 Nov 04     140           5          2
2025 Nov 05     145           5          2
2025 Nov 06     135           8          3
2025 Nov 07     130          12          4
2025 Nov 08     135          20          5
2025 Nov 09     140          18          5
2025 Nov 10     145          10          3
2025 Nov 11     155          10          3
2025 Nov 12     160           5          2
2025 Nov 13     160           5          2
2025 Nov 14     155           5          2
2025 Nov 15     150          18          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey