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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2618
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 0523 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5202
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 0508 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jan 02 0508 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jan 02 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1462
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 0322 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 01 0256 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 314 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5201
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 01 1444 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jan 01 1444 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jan 01 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5200
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 01 0843 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5199
Valid From: 2026 Jan 01 0430 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 01 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 01 January follow.
Solar flux 169 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 02 January was 4.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 31 Dec 007
Estimated Ap 01 Jan 020
Predicted Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 016-042-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Active                35/10/35
Minor storm           35/35/20
Moderate storm        20/35/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/20/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 02 Jan - 04 Jan
             Jan 02    Jan 03    Jan 04
00-03UT        3.67      5.00      3.67
03-06UT        3.00      6.00      3.33
06-09UT        2.67      6.00      2.00
09-12UT        2.67      4.67      3.00
12-15UT        2.33      4.00      3.00
15-18UT        2.00      3.00      2.00
18-21UT        2.33      3.00      3.33
21-00UT        4.67      4.33      3.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 02-Jan 04 2026 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 02-Jan 04 2026

             Jan 02       Jan 03       Jan 04
00-03UT       3.67         5.00 (G1)    3.67
03-06UT       3.00         6.00 (G2)    3.33
06-09UT       2.67         6.00 (G2)    2.00
09-12UT       2.67         4.67 (G1)    3.00
12-15UT       2.33         4.00         3.00
15-18UT       2.00         3.00         2.00
18-21UT       2.33         3.00         3.33
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    4.33         3.33

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely over
02-03 Jan due to anticipated influence from multiple CMEs that left the
Sun over 28-30 Dec.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 02-Jan 04 2026

              Jan 02  Jan 03  Jan 04
S1 or greater   20%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms over 02-04 Jan due to multiple complex regions on the
solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 02-Jan 04 2026

              Jan 02        Jan 03        Jan 04
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely over 02-04,
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), primarily due to flare potential
from Regions 4325 and 4324.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to numerous C-class flares. The
largest flare of the period was a C9.6/Sf at 01/0225 UTC from Region
4325 (S08W10, Eki/beta-gamma). Moderate growth and consolidation
occurred in this region causing it to largely lose its delta
configuration. Region 4324 (N24W02, Dai/beta-gamma) produced a C6.2
flare at 01/1759 UTC. An associated CME signature was observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 01/1912 UTC. Analysis and modeling of
the event is ongoing. Slight growth was observed in the trailing spots
of Region 4324. Departing Region 4317 (N11W90, Hsx/alpha) produced a few
low levels C-class flares. All other spot groups were either stable or
in mild decay.

A filament erupted off the SE quadrant starting at 01/0506 UTC,
triggering a sympathetic C2.0 flare from Region 4331 (S25E24, Axx/alpha)
at 01/0537 UTC. An associated CME became visible is coronagraph imagery
at 01/0548 UTC. Initial analysis indicates a potential Earth-impact late
on 02 Jan to early on 03 Jan.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares likely (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on
02-04 Jan. M-class activity is most possible from Regions 4324 and 4325.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
1,918 pfu at 01/1530 UTC before decreasing once more to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal
to moderate levels on 02 Jan. Due to CME activity, a return to high
levels is likely by 03-04 Jan. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event on 02-04 Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a solar sector boundary
crossing followed by a possible connection to a negative polarity CH
HSS. The total magnetic field (Bt) ranged from 2-10 nT while the Bz
(north-south) component ranged between +/-8 nT. After a short
interval of acceleration early in the reporting period, the solar wind
speed averaged 480 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative (towards
the Sun).

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed over 02-04 Jan due to
a combination of CH HSS and CME activity. There is the potential for
glancing influences early on 02 Jan from CMEs that left the Sun on 28-30
Dec and again late on 02 Jan into 03 Jan from the aforementioned CME
associated with the M7.1 flare.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to G1 (Minor)
storming levels on 02 Jan due to the combination of HSS activity and
potential glancing blows from the 28-30 Dec CMEs. By late on 02 Jan to
early on 03 Jan, the arrival of the 31 Dec CME is expected to cause
unsettled to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 29     185           5          2
2025 Dec 30     175           5          2
2025 Dec 31     170           8          3
2026 Jan 01     165          15          4
2026 Jan 02     160          18          4
2026 Jan 03     160          15          4
2026 Jan 04     155          12          4
2026 Jan 05     150           5          2
2026 Jan 06     155           5          2
2026 Jan 07     140           5          2
2026 Jan 08     130           5          2
2026 Jan 09     125          15          4
2026 Jan 10     120          10          4
2026 Jan 11     120           5          2
2026 Jan 12     120          10          4
2026 Jan 13     120          15          4
2026 Jan 14     115          15          4
2026 Jan 15     120           5          2
2026 Jan 16     120           5          2
2026 Jan 17     125          20          5
2026 Jan 18     135          20          5
2026 Jan 19     145          18          4
2026 Jan 20     155          18          4
2026 Jan 21     165           8          3
2026 Jan 22     165           8          3
2026 Jan 23     175           5          2
2026 Jan 24     175           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey