Aurora Forecast

Chart
Reports
Options
More...

Alerts
Geo Mag
3 Day
Discussion
27 Day

Alerts:
none

Solar-terrestrial indices for 27 April follow.
Solar flux 142 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 28 April was 0.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 26 Apr 014
Estimated Ap 27 Apr 007
Predicted Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 005-012-014

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Active                15/40/40
Minor storm           01/20/20
Moderate storm        01/10/10
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 28 Apr - 30 Apr
             Apr 28    Apr 29    Apr 30
00-03UT        1.67      2.00      4.00
03-06UT        1.33      2.33      3.33
06-09UT        1.33      1.67      2.67
09-12UT        1.33      1.33      3.00
12-15UT        1.67      2.00      2.33
15-18UT        1.33      3.00      2.33
18-21UT        1.33      3.33      2.00
21-00UT        1.67      4.00      3.00

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 28-Apr 30 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 28-Apr 30 2026

             Apr 28       Apr 29       Apr 30
00-03UT       1.67         2.00         4.00
03-06UT       1.33         2.33         3.33
06-09UT       1.33         1.67         2.67
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         3.00
12-15UT       1.67         2.00         2.33
15-18UT       1.33         3.00         2.33
18-21UT       1.33         3.33         2.00
21-00UT       1.67         4.00         3.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 28-Apr 30 2026

              Apr 28  Apr 29  Apr 30
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
could reach S1 (Minor) levels, but is mainly expected to remain at
background levels 28-30 Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 27 2026 0645 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 28-Apr 30 2026

              Apr 28        Apr 29        Apr 30
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: There is a high likelihood for R1/R2 (Minor/Moderate) radio
blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong or greater) events through
30 Apr, due primarily to the complexity of regions 4420 and 4425.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1.0/Sf flare at 27/0645
UTC from Region 4425 (N05E36, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Both Regions 4420
(N16W29, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) and 4425 produced the majority of the
C-class flares. Slight decay was observed in the intermediate spots of
Region 4420 while maintaining a weak delta magnetic configuration.
Moderate growth and consolidation occurred in Region 4425. Slight growth
was observed in Region 4424 (N16E06, Dso/beta).

The M6.0 flare yesterday at 26/2257 UTC had apparent ejecta observed in
SUVI 304 imagery at 26/2326 UTC. A possibly associated CME was observed
off the NW in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 27/0636 UTC. Modelling indicated
no Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a high likelihood
to reach moderate levels (R1/R2, Minor/Moderate), and a chance for
X-class (R3/Strong or greater) events through 30 Apr, due primarily to
the complexity of Regions 4420 and 4425.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low
to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is anticipated to reach moderate to
high levels on 30 Apr due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could reach S1 (Minor) levels on
28-30 Apr due to the flare potential of Regions 4420 and 4425.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels with solar wind speed
ranging from 405-488 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT while the Bz
component was between +5/-3 nT. Phi angle was variable.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels
through midday on 29 Apr. An increase in activity is expected by mid to
late on 29 Apr with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. HSS
conditions are expected to persist through 30 Apr. Solar wind speeds in
the 450-550 km/s range are likely.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 28 Apr. An
increase to unsettled to active levels is expected on 29-30 Apr with the
onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Apr 27     155          12          4
2026 Apr 28     150           7          2
2026 Apr 29     150          10          3
2026 Apr 30     152          14          4
2026 May 01     152           8          3
2026 May 02     148           5          2
2026 May 03     142           8          3
2026 May 04     140           8          3
2026 May 05     140           5          2
2026 May 06     135           5          2
2026 May 07     135          20          5
2026 May 08     135          15          4
2026 May 09     120           8          3
2026 May 10     110           5          2
2026 May 11     115           5          2
2026 May 12     115           5          2
2026 May 13     120           5          2
2026 May 14     120           5          2
2026 May 15     118          25          5
2026 May 16     130          20          5
2026 May 17     135          20          4
2026 May 18     135          15          4
2026 May 19     135           5          2
2026 May 20     140           5          2
2026 May 21     140           8          3
2026 May 22     145          10          3
2026 May 23     145          12          4

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.