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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4597
Issue Time: 2024 Apr 27 1416 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Apr 27 1415 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Apr 28 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4596
Issue Time: 2024 Apr 26 2300 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4595
Valid From: 2024 Apr 26 0500 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Apr 27 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 27 April follow.
Solar flux ??? and estimated planetary A-index 14.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 27 April was 3.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 25 Apr 003
Estimated Ap 26 Apr 018
Predicted Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 018-015-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           25/20/10
Moderate storm        10/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 27 Apr - 29 Apr
             Apr 27    Apr 28    Apr 29
00-03UT        3.67      3.67      2.67
03-06UT        3.00      3.33      2.00
06-09UT        3.00      3.33      2.33
09-12UT        3.00      3.00      2.67
12-15UT        3.00      3.00      2.33
15-18UT        3.33      3.33      2.33
18-21UT        3.33      2.00      2.33
21-00UT        3.67      2.00      2.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 27-Apr 29 2024

             Apr 27       Apr 28       Apr 29
00-03UT       3.00         3.67         2.67
03-06UT       3.00         3.33         2.00
06-09UT       2.00         3.33         2.33
09-12UT       1.33         3.67         2.67
12-15UT       3.67         3.00         2.33
15-18UT       3.00         2.67         2.33
18-21UT       3.67         2.00         2.33
21-00UT       3.67         2.00         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024

              Apr 27  Apr 28  Apr 29
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024

              Apr 27        Apr 28        Apr 29
R1-R2           40%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for isolated R1-R1 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 27-29 Apr.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity declined to low levels this period with only C-class
flare activity observed. Region 3654 (S08W16, Ehi/beta-gamma) remained
the largest region on the disk and exhibited moderate development in the
intermediate and trailer spots. Region 3657 (S15W25, Bxo/beta) reemerged
with a few rudimentary spots and new Region 3660 (N10E71, Axx/alpha) was
numbered. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 27-29 Apr with a
chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over 27-29 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels over 27-29 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was enhanced due to likely CME activity early
in the period, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 17 nT and the Bz
component was sustained southward through the first half of the period,
with a peak deflection of -11 nT observed. During the latter half of the
period, the Bz component rotated northward with only brief southward
deflections observed. Solar wind speeds were steady between 300-350 km/s
until 27/0230 UTC, when speed values slowly increased to a period high
of around 550 km/s. The phi angle transitioned from negative to positive
at 26/1502 UTC.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 27-29 Apr due to CH HSS
influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs
that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels this
period.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels on 27-28 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Apr, due to the
anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient
influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A
chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 27-28 Apr should these
features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Apr 22     215          10          4
2024 Apr 23     215          15          4
2024 Apr 24     200          10          4
2024 Apr 25     190          12          3
2024 Apr 26     170          15          4
2024 Apr 27     170          15          4
2024 Apr 28     165          12          3
2024 Apr 29     160           8          3
2024 Apr 30     155           7          2
2024 May 01     155          10          3
2024 May 02     160          10          3
2024 May 03     160          10          3
2024 May 04     160           5          2
2024 May 05     160           8          3
2024 May 06     160           8          3
2024 May 07     165           8          3
2024 May 08     170           5          2
2024 May 09     180           5          2
2024 May 10     185           5          2
2024 May 11     190           5          2
2024 May 12     195           5          2
2024 May 13     200           5          2
2024 May 14     210           5          2
2024 May 15     215           5          2
2024 May 16     215           5          2
2024 May 17     212           5          2
2024 May 18     212           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey