Aurora Forecast

Chart
Reports
Options
More...

Alerts
Geo Mag
3 Day
Discussion
27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3674
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 13 1101 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3673
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 03 0920 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1610 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 13 April follow.
Solar flux 99 and estimated planetary A-index 3.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 14 April was 0.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 12 Apr 008
Estimated Ap 13 Apr 005
Predicted Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 006-012-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Active                25/35/25
Minor storm           05/25/05
Moderate storm        01/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 14 Apr - 16 Apr
             Apr 14    Apr 15    Apr 16
00-03UT        1.67      2.67      1.67
03-06UT        2.67      3.00      2.67
06-09UT        1.67      4.00      2.67
09-12UT        1.67      2.67      2.33
12-15UT        1.00      2.67      1.67
15-18UT        0.67      1.67      1.67
18-21UT        1.67      1.67      1.67
21-00UT        2.00      2.00      2.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 14-Apr 16 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 14-Apr 16 2026

             Apr 14       Apr 15       Apr 16
00-03UT       1.67         2.67         1.67
03-06UT       2.67         3.00         2.67
06-09UT       1.67         4.00         2.67
09-12UT       1.67         2.67         2.33
12-15UT       1.00         2.67         1.67
15-18UT       0.67         1.67         1.67
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       2.00         2.00         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 14-Apr 16 2026

              Apr 14  Apr 15  Apr 16
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 14-Apr 16 2026

              Apr 14        Apr 15        Apr 16
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 14-16 Apr.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Plage region 4414 (N15, L=025)
produced a C1.2 flare at 13/1137 UTC, the largest of the period. Regions
4415 (S18E05, Hsx/alpha) and 4416 (N19W24, Dsi/beta) exhibited decay
while remaining relatively quiet. Region 4418 (S11E07, Cro/beta)
underwent minor evolution as it gained additional spots and developed
rudimentary penumbra. Region 4419 (N13E71, Cso/beta) was observed on
the eastern limb and numbered. The CME observed in GOES CCOR-1
coronagraph imagery beginning at approximately 13/1900 UTC was
determined to have originated from beyond the southwestern limb and is
thus not Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over through 16 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux
of 1,650 pfu at 13/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels
through 16 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels through 16 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning positive polarity coronal hole
influences. Total magnetic field averaged near 5 nT and the Bz component
was near neutral or northward. Solar wind speeds underwent a gradual
decrease from near 500 km/s to near 400 km/s by the end of the period.
Phi was in a positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mildly enhanced through 16
Apr due to tenuous CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
14 Apr. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 15 Apr, with a chance
(25%) for isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, under
positive polarity CH HSS effects. Isolated unsettled levels are then
expected to continue into 16 Apr.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Apr 13      95           8          3
2026 Apr 14      90           8          3
2026 Apr 15     100          12          3
2026 Apr 16     105           8          3
2026 Apr 17     110           5          2
2026 Apr 18     110          15          3
2026 Apr 19     110          20          4
2026 Apr 20     120          12          4
2026 Apr 21     130          10          3
2026 Apr 22     140           8          3
2026 Apr 23     145           5          2
2026 Apr 24     145           8          3
2026 Apr 25     140          12          4
2026 Apr 26     140          10          3
2026 Apr 27     140           5          2
2026 Apr 28     140           5          2
2026 Apr 29     135          20          5
2026 Apr 30     130          18          5
2026 May 01     125          12          4
2026 May 02     125          10          3
2026 May 03     115           8          3
2026 May 04     108           8          3
2026 May 05     105           5          2
2026 May 06     100           5          2
2026 May 07      95          20          4
2026 May 08      90          15          3
2026 May 09      90           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.