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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5205
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 1944 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5204
Valid From: 2026 Jan 02 1435 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 03 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1935
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 1930 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2165
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 1921 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jan 02 1920 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jan 03 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5204
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 1920 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5203
Valid From: 2026 Jan 02 1435 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Jan 03 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2619
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 1910 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1085
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 1701 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 02:  G1 (Minor)   Jan 03:  G2 (Moderate)   Jan 04:  G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5203
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 1435 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jan 02 1435 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jan 02 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3592
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 1221 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3591
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 21 1425 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1919 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2618
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 0523 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5202
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 0508 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Jan 02 0508 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Jan 02 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1462
Issue Time: 2026 Jan 02 0322 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Jan 01 0256 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 314 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 01 January follow.
Solar flux 169 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 02 January was 3.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 31 Dec 007
Estimated Ap 01 Jan 020
Predicted Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 016-042-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Active                35/10/35
Minor storm           35/35/20
Moderate storm        20/35/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/20/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 02 Jan - 04 Jan
             Jan 02    Jan 03    Jan 04
00-03UT        3.67      5.00      3.67
03-06UT        3.00      6.00      3.33
06-09UT        2.67      6.00      2.00
09-12UT        2.67      4.67      3.00
12-15UT        2.33      4.00      3.00
15-18UT        2.00      3.00      2.00
18-21UT        2.33      3.00      3.33
21-00UT        4.67      4.33      3.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 02-Jan 04 2026 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 02-Jan 04 2026

             Jan 02       Jan 03       Jan 04
00-03UT       3.00         5.00 (G1)    3.67
03-06UT       4.00         6.00 (G2)    3.33
06-09UT       3.33         6.00 (G2)    2.00
09-12UT       2.33         4.67 (G1)    3.00
12-15UT       2.00         4.00         3.00
15-18UT       2.00         3.00         2.00
18-21UT       2.33         3.00         3.33
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    4.33         3.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storming levels are likely on 02 Jan due to the
combination of HSS activity and potential glancing blows from the 28-30
Dec CMEs. By late on 02 Jan to early on 03 Jan, the arrival of the 31
Dec CME is expected to cause likely G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming.
Additional geomagnetic storming is anticipated on 04 Jan with the
possible impact of the 02 Jan CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 02-Jan 04 2026

              Jan 02  Jan 03  Jan 04
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event today through 04 Jan.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 02-Jan 04 2026

              Jan 02        Jan 03        Jan 04
R1-R2           55%           50%           45%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) events on 02 Jan. Levels are likely to
decrease to a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout activity
and a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event on 03-04 Jan as
most regions on the visible disk continue to decay.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to numerous low- to mid-level
C-class flares. The largest flare of the period was a C6.5 at 02/0017
UTC from newly numbered Region 4333 (S11E10, Cso/beta). This region
developed quickly and was responsible for several other C-class flares
as well. Region 4317 (N11, L=016) produced a couple of smaller C-flares
as it rotated around the west limb. Regions 4324 (N24W09,
Dai/beta-delta) and 4325 (S08W17, Eki/beta-gamma) both continued to
exhibit weak decay, but added a couple of C-class flares as well.

Region 4324 produced a C6.2 flare at 01/1759 UTC. An associated CME
signature was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 01/1912
UTC. Initial analysis and modeling of the event indicated a possible
Earth-directed component with a likely arrival at Earth near midday on
04 Jan. Additional modeling will be accomplished to determine magnitude
and degree of impact. All other spot groups were either stable or in
decay.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class flares (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) likely, and a slight chance for X-class flares
(R3-Strong), on 02 Jan. Levels are likely to decrease to a chance for
M-class activity and a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare on
03-04 Jan as most regions on the visible disk continue to decay.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
1,918 pfu at 01/1530 UTC before decreasing once more to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to high
levels 03-04 Jan. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event today through 04 Jan.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of likely negative polarity CH
HSS influence. The total magnetic field (Bt) ranged from 2-10 nT while
the Bz component ranged between +/-8 nT. Solar wind speed was between
450-550 km/s for most of the period before increasing to peak near 640
km/s the latter part of the period. Phi angle was predominantly negative
(towards the Sun).

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed over 02-04 Jan due to
a combination of CH HSS and CME activity. There is the potential for
glancing influences late on 02 Jan into 03 Jan from CMEs that left the
Sun on 28-30 Dec. Additional enhancements are possible again on 04 Jan
with the possible indirect impact of the CME that left the Sun on 02
Jan.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to G1 (Minor)
storming levels on 02 Jan due to the combination of HSS activity and
potential glancing blows from the 28-30 Dec CMEs. By late on 02 Jan to
early on 03 Jan, the arrival of the 31 Dec CME is expected to cause
unsettled to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming. Additional geomagnetic
storming is anticipated on 04 Jan with the possible impact of the 02 Jan
CME.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 29     185           5          2
2025 Dec 30     175           5          2
2025 Dec 31     170           8          3
2026 Jan 01     165          15          4
2026 Jan 02     160          18          4
2026 Jan 03     160          15          4
2026 Jan 04     155          12          4
2026 Jan 05     150           5          2
2026 Jan 06     155           5          2
2026 Jan 07     140           5          2
2026 Jan 08     130           5          2
2026 Jan 09     125          15          4
2026 Jan 10     120          10          4
2026 Jan 11     120           5          2
2026 Jan 12     120          10          4
2026 Jan 13     120          15          4
2026 Jan 14     115          15          4
2026 Jan 15     120           5          2
2026 Jan 16     120           5          2
2026 Jan 17     125          20          5
2026 Jan 18     135          20          5
2026 Jan 19     145          18          4
2026 Jan 20     155          18          4
2026 Jan 21     165           8          3
2026 Jan 22     165           8          3
2026 Jan 23     175           5          2
2026 Jan 24     175           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey