Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3569
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 02 0501 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3568
Begin Time: 2025 Nov 25 1450 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 8521 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 262
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 01 2119 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Dec 02: None (Below G1) Dec 03: G2 (Moderate) Dec 04: G2 (Moderate)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Comment: There is a chance geomagnetic storming could reach G3 (Moderate) levels late 03 Dec, into early 04 Dec.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Solar-terrestrial indices for 01 December follow.
Solar flux 196 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 02 December was 1.67.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 30 Nov 016
Estimated Ap 01 Dec 012
Predicted Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 005-024-035
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Active 15/40/25
Minor storm 01/30/35
Moderate storm 01/10/20
Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 02 Dec - 04 Dec
Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04
00-03UT 1.33 3.00 4.67
03-06UT 1.33 3.67 4.67
06-09UT 1.67 1.67 5.67
09-12UT 1.33 3.00 4.33
12-15UT 1.33 3.00 3.67
15-18UT 1.33 3.33 3.67
18-21UT 1.67 4.33 4.00
21-00UT 1.67 5.67 4.33
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 02-Dec 04 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 02-Dec 04 2025
Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04
00-03UT 1.33 3.00 4.67 (G1)
03-06UT 1.33 3.67 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 1.67 1.67 5.67 (G2)
09-12UT 1.33 3.00 4.33
12-15UT 1.33 3.00 3.67
15-18UT 1.33 3.33 3.67
18-21UT 1.67 4.33 4.00
21-00UT 1.67 5.67 (G2) 4.33
Rationale: G2 (Moderate) levels are likely on 03-04 Dec due to a
combination of activity from a CIR/CH HSS and the arrival of a glancing
blow from the 01 Dec CME.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 02-Dec 04 2025
Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04
S1 or greater 25% 20% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on
02 Dec, decreasing to a slight chance on 03-04 Dec due to the recent
X1.9 flare from Region 4299.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 01 2025 0249 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 02-Dec 04 2025
Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04
R1-R2 80% 70% 70%
R3 or greater 30% 30% 25%
Rationale: Flare probabilities have increased to 70-80% chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) and 30% chance R3 (Strong). This is based on the
complexity and assuming persistent activity of Regions 4294 and 4299,
respectively.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Flare activity reached high levels due to an X1.9 at 01/0249 UTC from
Region 4299 (N22E68, Dai/beta-gamma). Significant field line movement
and shock wave can be seen in GOES SUVI 195 Angstroms. Dimming can be
seen on over much of the northeast quadrant of the disk, indicating
significant loss of material. The associated CME can be seen in Lasco C2
coronagraph imagery starting at 01/0248 UTC. It had both a Type IV and
Type II radio sweep with reported velocities around 1,000 km/s, and a
Tenflare that reached 410 pfu.
Region 4299 continues to come into better view as it moves from the east
limb but its magnetic field is still too distorted by foreshortening to
be accurate. Its current classification of Dai is less complex than when
it was last seen as Region 4274 (N24, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) - but this
is to be expected given its age and the amount of CME activity it was
likely responsible for while on the far-side.
The other notable area is the large complex in the southeast which
contains three regions. The leading spot is fairly simple, Region 4298
(S16E32, Hsx/alpha) and has been stable and quiet. Behind that however,
is the biggest baddest group on the disk - Region 4294 (S15E43,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) but despite its size and complexity it has only
produced C-class flares throughout the period. There is some flux
emergence within its intermediate area but minimal shearing is occurring
making it more stable. Behind that, is Region 4296 (S14E62,
Eki/beta-gamma) whose structure is coming into better view, and has been
upgraded in its classification, but it too has been fairly quiet with
only C-class flares.
.Forecast...
Flare probabilities have increased to 70-80% chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) and 30% chance R3 (Strong). This is based on the
complexity and assuming persistent activity of Regions 4294 and 4299,
respectively.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continues at high levels due to the
geoeffective positioning of the now exiting, south pole coronal hole
(CH) high speed stream (HSS). The peak flux was 8,520 pfu observed at
01/1335 UTC.
Modelling of the aforementioned X1.9 confirmed there is about a 30%
chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor)
radiation storming levels in the next 24 hours (roughly). These higher
percentages is based on flare magnitude, previous activity (S3 levels
from this Region on 12 Nov) as well as radio signatures. Since the event
occurred near the east limb it will take time for protons to reach Earth
as we are not in a favorable position for fast arrival.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electrons will continue at high levels, slowly
trending down through 04 Dec. It is unlikely that the next CH HSS,
emanating from the CH near the central meridian will be as potent.
There remains a 30% chance for S1 (Minor) radiation storming levels from
the greater than 10 MeV protons 02 Dec with decreasing chances into 04
Dec. Chances will increase if there continues to be significant flare
activity from Region 4299.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning influences from the positive
polarity CH HSS mentioned earlier. The interplanetary magnetic field
(Bt) remained around 5 nT with the north-south (Bz) component between
+/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds have decreased from 550 km/s towards 415
km/s. The phi angle has remained in the positive (away from the Sun)
orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters will trend towards nominal conditions 02 Dec
before becoming elevated again. Three things will impact the solar wind
03-04 Dec; 1) sector boundary crossing from positive to negative 2)
co-rotating interacting region (CIR) ahead of the CH HSS associated with
the negative CH near the central meridian 3) and a glancing blow from a
powerful CME associated with the X1.9 discussed earlier. All three will
create turbulence, compression, and overall enhancements within the
solar wind 03-04 Dec.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field had one synoptic period between 00-03 UTC of active
conditions and has been quiet to unsettled since.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field will remain at unsettled levels 02 Dec and into 03
Dec. As discussed in the Solar wind forecast section, three space
weather phenomena will be occurring between 03-04 Dec. The CIR will
likely be strong enough on its own to bring G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic
storming levels but the uncertainty of CME arrival time decreases
confidence in magnitude. If they arrive at the same time, G3 (Moderate)
storming levels are likely with conditions waning towards active to G1
levels thereafter. If they are reasonably spaced apart in time, G2
(Moderate) conditions will persist for longer, throughout 04 Dec. G2
Watches have been issued for 03 and 04 Dec.
-Bri
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 01 190 8 3
2025 Dec 02 190 5 2
2025 Dec 03 190 15 4
2025 Dec 04 190 25 5
2025 Dec 05 190 30 5
2025 Dec 06 190 12 4
2025 Dec 07 190 10 3
2025 Dec 08 190 8 3
2025 Dec 09 190 5 2
2025 Dec 10 185 5 2
2025 Dec 11 180 5 2
2025 Dec 12 180 8 3
2025 Dec 13 175 18 5
2025 Dec 14 175 12 4
2025 Dec 15 180 8 3
2025 Dec 16 180 5 2
2025 Dec 17 180 8 3
2025 Dec 18 180 10 3
2025 Dec 19 180 8 3
2025 Dec 20 175 8 3
2025 Dec 21 175 15 4
2025 Dec 22 175 20 5
2025 Dec 23 180 20 5
2025 Dec 24 190 25 5
2025 Dec 25 195 20 5
2025 Dec 26 195 20 5
2025 Dec 27 195 15 4
v4.16b
v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
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v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
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Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
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> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
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