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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 302
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 27 0215 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 27 0138 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Dec 27 0150 UTC
End Time: 2025 Dec 27 0159 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.1
Location: S09E73
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1460
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 27 0204 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 27 0147 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 788 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 896
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 27 0156 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 27 0144 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Dec 27 0144 UTC
End Time: 2025 Dec 27 0146 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 190 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 166 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 506
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 27 0150 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Dec 27 0148 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3585
Issue Time: 2025 Dec 26 0512 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3584
Begin Time: 2025 Dec 21 1425 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 8651 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 26 December follow.
Solar flux 166 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 27 December was 1.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 25 Dec 011
Estimated Ap 26 Dec 008
Predicted Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 005-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 27 Dec - 29 Dec
             Dec 27    Dec 28    Dec 29
00-03UT        1.67      1.67      1.67
03-06UT        1.67      1.33      1.33
06-09UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
09-12UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
12-15UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
15-18UT        1.33      1.67      1.33
18-21UT        1.67      1.33      1.67
21-00UT        1.33      1.67      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 27-Dec 29 2025 is 1.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 27-Dec 29 2025

             Dec 27       Dec 28       Dec 29
00-03UT       1.67         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       1.67         1.33         1.33
06-09UT       1.33         1.33         1.33
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       1.33         1.67         1.33
18-21UT       1.67         1.33         1.67
21-00UT       1.33         1.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 27-Dec 29 2025

              Dec 27  Dec 28  Dec 29
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 27-Dec 29 2025

              Dec 27        Dec 28        Dec 29
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 27-29 Dec.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. New Region 4323 (S12E61, Axx/alpha) produced a
majority of this periods activity. The largest flare was a C6.9
observed at 26/0914 UTC from Region 4323. Region 4317 (N11W06, Eai/beta)
produced a C2.2/Sf at 26/0815 UTC. Slight decay was observed in the
trailing spots of Region 4317.

Region 4321 (S10W36, Dki/beta-delta) continued to show growth and
consolidation into a large compact region with its leading polarity
almost north of its trailing polarity. The region formed a delta
configuration at the boundary of its leading and following spots. New
Region 4324 (N28E75, Dso/beta) was numbered. The rest of the numbered
regions were either stable or in decay.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
over 27-29 Dec.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 8,194 pfu observed at 26/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
27-28 Dec and return to normal to moderate levels on 29 Dec. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
through 29 Dec.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were in decline as CH HSS effects diminished.
Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 550 km/s to about 500
km/s. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT while the Bz component was between
+/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 27-29
Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are expected on 27-29 Dec as CH HSS effects decay.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 22     130          28          5
2025 Dec 23     135          22          5
2025 Dec 24     140          20          4
2025 Dec 25     145          15          4
2025 Dec 26     150          10          3
2025 Dec 27     155           5          2
2025 Dec 28     155           5          2
2025 Dec 29     160           8          3
2025 Dec 30     170          30          6
2025 Dec 31     170          25          5
2026 Jan 01     165          10          4
2026 Jan 02     160          10          4
2026 Jan 03     160           8          3
2026 Jan 04     160           5          2
2026 Jan 05     160           5          2
2026 Jan 06     160           5          2
2026 Jan 07     140           5          2
2026 Jan 08     130           5          2
2026 Jan 09     125          15          4
2026 Jan 10     120          10          4
2026 Jan 11     120           5          2
2026 Jan 12     120          10          4
2026 Jan 13     120          15          4
2026 Jan 14     115          15          4
2026 Jan 15     120           5          2
2026 Jan 16     120           5          2
2026 Jan 17     125          20          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey