Presets:
close
Ovation: South
North
Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1035
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 02 2112 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Apr 03:  None (Below G1)   Apr 04:  G1 (Minor)   Apr 05:  G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4898
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 02 2059 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4897
Valid From: 2025 Apr 02 0123 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Apr 03 1000 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMPX1
Serial Number: 122
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 02 1824 UTC

SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2025 Mar 31 1105 UTC
Maximum Time: 2025 Apr 01 0425 UTC
End Time: 2025 Apr 02 0910 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 147 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 600
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 02 1102 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 599
Valid From: 2025 Mar 31 1057 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Apr 02 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4897
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 02 0851 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4896
Valid From: 2025 Apr 02 0123 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Apr 02 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2006
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 02 0851 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2005
Valid From: 2025 Apr 02 0233 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Apr 02 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2005
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 02 0234 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2025 Apr 02 0233 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Apr 02 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4896
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 02 0234 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4895
Valid From: 2025 Apr 02 0123 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Apr 02 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 02 April follow.
Solar flux 180 and estimated planetary A-index 22.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 03 April was 3.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 01 Apr 005
Estimated Ap 02 Apr 021
Predicted Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 012-018-020

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Active                20/35/35
Minor storm           10/35/35
Moderate storm        01/15/15
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 03 Apr - 05 Apr
             Apr 03    Apr 04    Apr 05
00-03UT        3.67      1.00      5.00
03-06UT        3.33      1.00      4.00
06-09UT        3.00      2.33      3.67
09-12UT        2.33      3.67      3.33
12-15UT        2.00      3.33      2.33
15-18UT        1.33      3.33      2.33
18-21UT        2.00      3.67      2.67
21-00UT        2.33      5.00      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 03-Apr 05 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 03-Apr 05 2025

             Apr 03       Apr 04       Apr 05
00-03UT       3.67         1.00         5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       3.33         1.00         4.00
06-09UT       3.00         2.33         3.67
09-12UT       2.33         3.67         3.33
12-15UT       2.00         3.33         2.33
15-18UT       1.33         3.33         2.33
18-21UT       2.00         3.67         2.67
21-00UT       2.33         5.00 (G1)    2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 04-05 Apr due to
anticipated recurrent coronal hole activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 03-Apr 05 2025

              Apr 03  Apr 04  Apr 05
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 03-05 Apr, primarily due to the flare potential from Region
4048.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 03-Apr 05 2025

              Apr 03        Apr 04        Apr 05
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely over 03-05
Apr, primarily due to the flare potential from Region 4048.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C8.0/1f at
02/1053 UTC from Region 4048 (S16E27, Fkc/beta-gamma). Region 4048
continued to exhibit separation and slight decay in its intermediate
spots. Consolidation was occurring within its leading spots. The region
also appeared to lose its delta magnetic configuration. Slight growth
was observed in Regions 4044 (N20W30, Dao/beta) and 4049 (S30E01,
Dso/beta). New Region 4050 (N27W02, Bxo/beta) was numbered. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) on 03-05 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 31/1105 UTC, reached
a peak flux of 147 pfu at 01/0425 UTC, ended at 02/0910 UTC. Levels
continued to be elevated near 3 pfu, but subsiding.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 03-04 Apr. A chance for high levels is likely on 05
Apr due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event on 03-05 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be weakly enhanced under transient
effects. Total field ranged from 6-11 nT with the Bz component between
+6/-9 nT. Solar wind speed averaged around 450 km/s. Phi angle was
positive.

.Forecast...
Weak transient activity will likely continue through early on 03 Apr.
Another enhancement is expected early to midday on 04 Apr due to the
arrival of a CIR preceding a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. HSS
influence is expected to persist through 05 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CME
influence.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels are expected through early on 03 Apr due to
residual CME influence. On 04-05 Apr, CIR/CH HSS is expected to cause
unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Mar 31     170           5          2
2025 Apr 01     175           5          2
2025 Apr 02     175           5          2
2025 Apr 03     175          10          3
2025 Apr 04     180          20          5
2025 Apr 05     180          35          6
2025 Apr 06     180          10          3
2025 Apr 07     185          12          3
2025 Apr 08     185          30          5
2025 Apr 09     180          35          6
2025 Apr 10     175          25          5
2025 Apr 11     175          18          4
2025 Apr 12     175          10          3
2025 Apr 13     175          15          4
2025 Apr 14     170          12          3
2025 Apr 15     170           8          3
2025 Apr 16     175           5          2
2025 Apr 17     175          10          3
2025 Apr 18     175          12          3
2025 Apr 19     170           8          3
2025 Apr 20     170          10          3
2025 Apr 21     165          15          4
2025 Apr 22     165          15          4
2025 Apr 23     170          15          4
2025 Apr 24     170          15          4
2025 Apr 25     165          10          3
2025 Apr 26     165           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey