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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 900
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 08 1402 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 08 1350 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Feb 08 1350 UTC
End Time: 2026 Feb 08 1353 UTC
Duration: 3 minutes
Peak Flux: 440 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 169 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3622
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 08 1157 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3621
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 07 1340 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2062 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 08 February follow.
Solar flux 167 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 09 February was 1.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 07 Feb 015
Estimated Ap 08 Feb 012
Predicted Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 015-008-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Active                35/20/10
Minor storm           20/05/05
Moderate storm        05/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 09 Feb - 11 Feb
             Feb 09    Feb 10    Feb 11
00-03UT        3.67      2.67      1.67
03-06UT        2.67      2.67      1.67
06-09UT        2.67      2.67      1.67
09-12UT        2.67      1.67      1.00
12-15UT        2.67      1.67      1.33
15-18UT        3.00      0.67      1.33
18-21UT        3.00      1.67      1.00
21-00UT        3.67      2.00      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 09-Feb 11 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 09-Feb 11 2026

             Feb 09       Feb 10       Feb 11
00-03UT       3.67         2.67         1.67
03-06UT       2.67         2.67         1.67
06-09UT       2.67         2.67         1.67
09-12UT       2.67         1.67         1.00
12-15UT       2.67         1.67         1.33
15-18UT       3.00         0.67         1.33
18-21UT       3.00         1.67         1.00
21-00UT       3.67         2.00         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 09-Feb 11 2026

              Feb 09  Feb 10  Feb 11
S1 or greater   25%     25%     25%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 08 2026 1353 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 09-Feb 11 2026

              Feb 09        Feb 10        Feb 11
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for R3 (Strong or greater) events over 09-11 Feb, primarily due
to the eruptive potential of Region 4366.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 4366 (N14W59,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced numerous M-class flares (R1-Minor) this
period. The largest of these flares was an impulsive M2.7 observed at
08/1353 UTC. Associated with this event was a quick 440 sfu Tenflare.
The region remained the largest and most complex on the disk, but
exhibited signs of decay especially among the intermediate spots. It
maintained a complex Delta magnetic configuration.

New spots emerged in Region 4363 (S26W62, Bxo/beta) which had decayed to
plage over the past seven days. The remaining regions were either stable
or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a chance for
X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater) over 09-11 Feb, primarily due to
the eruptive potential of Region 4366.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 1,893 pfu observed at 08/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
09-11 Feb. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels over 09-11 Feb due to the eruptive potential and
location of Region 4366.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained mildly enhanced this period under
negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength values
remained steady near 6-9 nT, with the Bz component ranging between +7 to
-8 nT. Solar wind speeds were steady near 450 km/s throughout most of
the period before decreasing to around 400 km/s by the end of the day.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is likely to become further enhanced on 09
Feb, pending the anticipated arrival of a CME (from 03 Feb) combined
with continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Enhancements are
likely to diminish late on 10 Feb into 11 Feb as CH HSS effects decay.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to
negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions are likely on 09 Feb as weak CME effects
and ongoing negative polarity CH HSS influences persist. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on 10 Feb due to continued negative
polarity CH HSS influences. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on 11
Feb.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Feb 09     165          15          4
2026 Feb 10     160           8          3
2026 Feb 11     155           5          2
2026 Feb 12     150           5          2
2026 Feb 13     145           5          2
2026 Feb 14     140           5          2
2026 Feb 15     150           5          2
2026 Feb 16     160          15          4
2026 Feb 17     170          15          4
2026 Feb 18     180          15          4
2026 Feb 19     175          15          4
2026 Feb 20     170          15          4
2026 Feb 21     160          15          4
2026 Feb 22     150           8          3
2026 Feb 23     140           8          3
2026 Feb 24     135          20          5
2026 Feb 25     130          20          5
2026 Feb 26     130           8          3
2026 Feb 27     140           5          2
2026 Feb 28     160           5          2
2026 Mar 01     165           5          2
2026 Mar 02     170           5          2
2026 Mar 03     170           5          2
2026 Mar 04     170           5          2
2026 Mar 05     165          15          4
2026 Mar 06     165          15          4
2026 Mar 07     165           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey