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Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 December follow.
Solar flux 182 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 31 December was 1.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 29 Dec 009
Estimated Ap 30 Dec 009
Predicted Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 012-029-018

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Active                30/35/40
Minor storm           15/40/20
Moderate storm        05/15/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 31 Dec - 02 Jan
             Dec 31    Jan 01    Jan 02
00-03UT        1.67      5.00      3.67
03-06UT        1.67      5.00      3.67
06-09UT        2.00      3.67      3.33
09-12UT        2.00      3.33      3.33
12-15UT        2.33      3.33      3.00
15-18UT        2.67      4.33      3.00
18-21UT        3.33      4.00      3.00
21-00UT        4.33      3.33      3.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 31-Jan 02 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 31-Jan 02 2026

             Dec 31       Jan 01       Jan 02
00-03UT       1.67         5.00 (G1)    3.67
03-06UT       1.67         5.00 (G1)    3.67
06-09UT       2.00         3.67         3.33
09-12UT       2.00         3.33         3.33
12-15UT       2.33         3.33         3.00
15-18UT       2.67         4.33         3.00
18-21UT       3.33         4.00         3.00
21-00UT       4.33         3.33         3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are possible on 01
Jan.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2026

              Dec 31  Jan 01  Jan 02
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2026

              Dec 31        Jan 01        Jan 02
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, on 31 Dec-02 Jan.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours, with few
C-class flares mostly coming from Region 4325 (S08E17, Eki/beta-gamma).
The largest flare of the period was a C5.0/Sf, peaked at 30/0645 UTC,
from Region 4324 (N24E25, Dao/beta-gamma).

Region 4330 (S16E41, Axx/alpha) was responsible for two eruptions seen
in SUVI imagery. The first eruption was associated with a CME, first
observed at coronagraph imagery at 30/0700 UTC and closely followed by a
second CME from the northeast quadrant (potentially from near Region
4324). But none of their modeled trajectory indicated direct impact
near-Earth.

Further coronagraph images are necessary to evaluate if the second
eruption from Region 4330 will result in a visible CME. No other
Earth-directed CME was observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares
through 02 Jan due to the current magnetic complexity and development of
the active regions on the visible solar disk.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, measured at geostationary orbit by
GOES-19, reached a peak level of 5,612 pfu at 30/1545 UTC and decreased
to moderate levels after 30/1915 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux remained at background levels during the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
again on 31 Dec and 01-02 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days 31 Dec, 01-02 Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained at background conditions during most of
the day. Solar wind speed oscillated around 400 km/s, but reached a peak
of 563 km/s at 30/1514 UTC during a brief disturbance. Total IMF
oscillated around 5 nT most of the period, and reached 9 nT at 30/2323
UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/1515 UTC,
during a brief disturbance that was likely anticipating a sector
crossing observed as the phi angle change (from mostly positive to
mostly negative after that), likely associated with a negative CH HSS.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to increasingly respond to the
influence of a negative CH/HSS located at the northwest solar quadrant
in the next days: higher speeds, lower densities and negative phi angle.
By late 31 Dec / early 01 Jan, a glancing blow of CME that left the Sun
on 28 Dec is anticipated to disturb the solar wind near Earth. Later on
01 Jan, an extra disturbance caused by the multiple CMEs from 29 Dec is
also possible.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on
31 Dec, unsettled to minor storm levels on 01 Jan and unsettled to
active levels on 02 Jan.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Dec 29     185           5          2
2025 Dec 30     175           5          2
2025 Dec 31     170           8          3
2026 Jan 01     165          15          4
2026 Jan 02     160          18          4
2026 Jan 03     160          15          4
2026 Jan 04     155          12          4
2026 Jan 05     150           5          2
2026 Jan 06     155           5          2
2026 Jan 07     140           5          2
2026 Jan 08     130           5          2
2026 Jan 09     125          15          4
2026 Jan 10     120          10          4
2026 Jan 11     120           5          2
2026 Jan 12     120          10          4
2026 Jan 13     120          15          4
2026 Jan 14     115          15          4
2026 Jan 15     120           5          2
2026 Jan 16     120           5          2
2026 Jan 17     125          20          5
2026 Jan 18     135          20          5
2026 Jan 19     145          18          4
2026 Jan 20     155          18          4
2026 Jan 21     165           8          3
2026 Jan 22     165           8          3
2026 Jan 23     175           5          2
2026 Jan 24     175           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey