Presets:
close
Ovation: South
North
Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2649
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 10 0208 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5314
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 10 0143 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Apr 10 0145 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Apr 10 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 09 April follow.
Solar flux 98 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 10 April was 2.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 08 Apr 007
Estimated Ap 09 Apr 010
Predicted Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 024-032-017

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Active                30/25/35
Minor storm           50/35/10
Moderate storm        05/20/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/05/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 10 Apr - 12 Apr
             Apr 10    Apr 11    Apr 12
00-03UT        2.33      5.33      4.33
03-06UT        5.00      4.00      3.67
06-09UT        4.33      4.00      2.67
09-12UT        3.67      3.33      2.33
12-15UT        2.67      3.67      3.00
15-18UT        2.67      4.00      2.33
18-21UT        3.67      4.67      3.00
21-00UT        4.33      4.67      3.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 10-Apr 12 2026 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 10-Apr 12 2026

             Apr 10       Apr 11       Apr 12
00-03UT       3.33         5.33 (G1)    4.33
03-06UT       5.00 (G1)    4.00         3.67
06-09UT       4.33         4.00         2.67
09-12UT       3.67         3.33         2.33
12-15UT       2.67         3.67         3.00
15-18UT       2.67         4.00         2.33
18-21UT       2.67         4.67 (G1)    3.00
21-00UT       4.33         4.67 (G1)    3.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely over 10-11 Apr due to the
influence of a +CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 10-Apr 12 2026

              Apr 10  Apr 11  Apr 12
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 09 2026 0845 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 10-Apr 12 2026

              Apr 10        Apr 11        Apr 12
R1-R2           25%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 10 Apr.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 4409 (N01W85,
Esi/beta-delta) produced an M1.0/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 09/0845 UTC, the
strongest of the period. No growth was observed in any of the numbered
active regions over the past 24 hours. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels 10-12 Apr, with a chance
for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on 10 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux
of 10,679 pfu at 09/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
levels over 10-12 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of a corotating
interacting region (CIR) ahead of a positive polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (+CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels, with a small enhancement
to the IMF observed after 09/1100 UTC. Total magnetic field strength
gradually increased from ~5 nT to a peak of 10 nT late in the UT day. Bz
was observed as far south as -8 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly below
400 km/s, with the exception of a brief increase to ~420 km/s around
09/1100 UTC. Phi angle was variable, but predominantly in a negative
orientation.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind parameters are likely over 10-12 Apr due to
the anticipated influence of a CIR and the subsequent onset of a +CH
HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels over
10-11 Apr due to the influence of a +CH HSS. Active conditions are
likely on 12 Apr as the HSS gradually wanes.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Apr 06     118          10          3
2026 Apr 07     115           8          3
2026 Apr 08     113           5          2
2026 Apr 09     111           5          2
2026 Apr 10     108          12          4
2026 Apr 11     106          18          5
2026 Apr 12     105          10          4
2026 Apr 13     108           8          3
2026 Apr 14     110           7          2
2026 Apr 15     115           5          2
2026 Apr 16     115           4          2
2026 Apr 17     120           7          2
2026 Apr 18     122          48          6
2026 Apr 19     124          22          5
2026 Apr 20     130          12          4
2026 Apr 21     140          12          4
2026 Apr 22     150           8          3
2026 Apr 23     155           5          2
2026 Apr 24     160           8          3
2026 Apr 25     155          12          4
2026 Apr 26     150          10          3
2026 Apr 27     145           5          2
2026 Apr 28     140           5          2
2026 Apr 29     140          20          5
2026 Apr 30     135          18          5
2026 May 01     130          12          4
2026 May 02     120           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey