( ) ( )

 
The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3512
Issue Time: 2018 Aug 16 0203 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3511
Valid From: 2018 Aug 15 2215 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2018 Aug 16 1000 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2067
Issue Time: 2018 Aug 16 0002 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2018 Aug 15 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2359 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3511
Issue Time: 2018 Aug 15 2212 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2018 Aug 15 2215 UTC
Valid To: 2018 Aug 16 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2066
Issue Time: 2018 Aug 15 1355 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2018 Aug 15 1350 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 15 August follow.
Solar flux 69 and estimated planetary A-index 14.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 16 August was 2.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 14 Aug 004
Estimated Ap 15 Aug 015
Predicted Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 015-010-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Active                35/20/10
Minor storm           20/10/01
Moderate storm        10/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 16 Aug - 18 Aug
             Aug 16    Aug 17    Aug 18
00-03UT        4         3         2
03-06UT        4         3         2
06-09UT        3         3         2
09-12UT        3         2         1
12-15UT        3         2         1
15-18UT        2         1         1
18-21UT        2         2         1
21-00UT        3         2         1


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 16-Aug 18 2018 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 16-Aug 18 2018

            Aug 16     Aug 17     Aug 18
00-03UT        4          3          2
03-06UT        4          3          2
06-09UT        3          3          2
09-12UT        3          2          1
12-15UT        3          2          1
15-18UT        2          1          1
18-21UT        2          2          1
21-00UT        3          2          1

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2018

              Aug 16  Aug 17  Aug 18
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2018

              Aug 16        Aug 17        Aug 18
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2718 (S07E36, Cro/beta) remained
inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 16-18 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels
on 16-17 Aug and increasing to moderate levels by 18 Aug. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested
the onset of a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic
field strength was enhanced, with a brief peak of 12 nT observed at
15/1840 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from 350 km/s at 15/0700 UTC to
a peak of near 500 km/s at 15/1449 UTC. Phi was predominantly oriented
in the positive sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue with positive polarity CH
HSS enhancements through 16 Aug. Enhancements are expected to wane on 17
Aug and return to nominal levels by 18 Aug.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influence from a
positive polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on
16 Aug and quiet to unsettled on 17 Aug as CH HSS effects are expected
to continue. The return of an ambient solar wind regime is expected to
produce quiet conditions on 18 Aug.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2018 Aug 13      68           8          3
2018 Aug 14      68           5          2
2018 Aug 15      68           5          2
2018 Aug 16      68          12          4
2018 Aug 17      68          15          4
2018 Aug 18      68           8          3
2018 Aug 19      68           5          2
2018 Aug 20      68          15          4
2018 Aug 21      68          12          4
2018 Aug 22      68           5          2
2018 Aug 23      70           5          2
2018 Aug 24      70           5          2
2018 Aug 25      70           5          2
2018 Aug 26      70           5          2
2018 Aug 27      70           5          2
2018 Aug 28      70           5          2
2018 Aug 29      70           5          2
2018 Aug 30      70           5          2
2018 Aug 31      70           5          2
2018 Sep 01      70           5          2
2018 Sep 02      70           5          2
2018 Sep 03      70          12          4
2018 Sep 04      70           8          3
2018 Sep 05      70           5          2
2018 Sep 06      68           5          2
2018 Sep 07      68          10          3
2018 Sep 08      68           8          3



 
The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.
  • GRAPH OPTIONS:

  • DATA SOURCES:

  • Planatary K Index (Kp):
  • Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast (GW):
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1):
  • ACE Observatory (L1):
  • Additional Magnetometer Sources:

 

 

The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) v3.65


The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).


1534422613