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Alerts:
none

Solar-terrestrial indices for 22 October follow.
Solar flux 71 and estimated planetary A-index 6.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 23 October was 1.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 21 Oct 004
Estimated Ap 22 Oct 006
Predicted Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005-012-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Active                10/30/20
Minor storm           01/10/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 23 Oct - 25 Oct
             Oct 23    Oct 24    Oct 25
00-03UT        2         3         3
03-06UT        1         3         3
06-09UT        2         3         3
09-12UT        1         2         2
12-15UT        1         2         1
15-18UT        1         2         1
18-21UT        1         3         2
21-00UT        2         3         2


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 23-Oct 25 2018 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 23-Oct 25 2018

            Oct 23     Oct 24     Oct 25
00-03UT        1          3          3
03-06UT        2          3          3
06-09UT        1          3          3
09-12UT        1          2          2
12-15UT        1          2          1
15-18UT        1          2          1
18-21UT        1          3          2
21-00UT        2          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2018

              Oct 23  Oct 24  Oct 25
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2018

              Oct 23        Oct 24        Oct 25
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and the solar disk was spotless. No CMEs
were observed in coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 23-25 Oct.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels this period
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to
high levels on 23-25 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at near-background levels. Solar wind speeds
were less than 350 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Both total
field and the Bz component were benign and unremarkable. Phi angle was
indicative of a positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
Near-background conditions are expected on 23 Oct. An enhanced solar
wind is anticipated on 24-25 Oct as a result of a recurrent, negative
polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet levels are expected on 23 Oct. Mostly unsettled levels are
expected 24-25 Oct in response to a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2018 Oct 22      70           6          2
2018 Oct 23      69           5          2
2018 Oct 24      69          12          3
2018 Oct 25      68           8          3
2018 Oct 26      68           8          3
2018 Oct 27      68           5          2
2018 Oct 28      68           8          3
2018 Oct 29      68          12          4
2018 Oct 30      68           5          2
2018 Oct 31      68           5          2
2018 Nov 01      68           5          2
2018 Nov 02      68           5          2
2018 Nov 03      68          22          5
2018 Nov 04      68          20          5
2018 Nov 05      68          15          4
2018 Nov 06      70          15          4
2018 Nov 07      70           8          3
2018 Nov 08      70           5          2
2018 Nov 09      70          12          3
2018 Nov 10      70           8          3
2018 Nov 11      70          10          3
2018 Nov 12      70           5          2
2018 Nov 13      70           5          2
2018 Nov 14      70           5          2
2018 Nov 15      70           5          2
2018 Nov 16      70           5          2
2018 Nov 17      70           5          2



 
The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.
  • GRAPH OPTIONS:

  • DATA SOURCES:

  • Planatary K Index (Kp):
  • Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast (GW):
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1):
  • ACE Observatory (L1):
  • Additional Magnetometer Sources:

 

 

The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) v3.65


The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).


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