Presets:


close
Ovation: South
North
Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3494
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 15 1212 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3493
Begin Time: 2025 Jul 14 1550 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1230 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1422
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 15 1210 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Jul 15 1052 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 525 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5036
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 15 1147 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5035
Valid From: 2025 Jul 14 1858 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jul 15 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2080
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 15 1147 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2079
Valid From: 2025 Jul 14 2051 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jul 15 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1828
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 15 1056 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1827
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 15 0901 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5035
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 15 0224 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5034
Valid From: 2025 Jul 14 1858 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jul 15 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2079
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 15 0224 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2078
Valid From: 2025 Jul 14 2051 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jul 15 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 15 July follow.
Solar flux 139 and estimated planetary A-index 25.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 15 July was 1.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 13 Jul 023
Estimated Ap 14 Jul 018
Predicted Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 015-010-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           40/05/05
Moderate storm        15/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 15 Jul - 17 Jul
             Jul 15    Jul 16    Jul 17
00-03UT        4.67      2.67      2.00
03-06UT        3.33      3.00      2.00
06-09UT        2.67      2.67      2.33
09-12UT        2.33      2.33      2.33
12-15UT        2.33      2.33      2.00
15-18UT        2.00      2.00      2.33
18-21UT        3.00      1.00      2.00
21-00UT        2.67      2.33      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 15-Jul 17 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 15-Jul 17 2025

             Jul 15       Jul 16       Jul 17
00-03UT       4.00         4.00         3.00
03-06UT       4.33         3.67         2.67
06-09UT       5.00 (G1)    3.00         2.00
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         1.67
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         2.00
15-18UT       2.67         2.00         2.00
18-21UT       2.33         2.33         1.67
21-00UT       3.67         2.67         2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected on 15 Jul due to
persistent CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 15-Jul 17 2025

              Jul 15  Jul 16  Jul 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 15-Jul 17 2025

              Jul 15        Jul 16        Jul 17
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with an increased chance
for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 15-17 Jul.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C4.5 at
14/1706 UTC from Region 4141 (S13, L=112) which rotated around the SW
limb on 14 Jul. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4139 (N22W23,
Dai/beta), 4142 (N01E42, Csi/beta), and 4143 (N23E08, Cro/beta). The
remaining spot groups were either stable or slightly decaying. New
Region 4144 (S15E69, Hsx/alpha) was numbered.

An approximate 65 degree filament eruption centered near N30E57 was
observed lifting off in SUVI 304 imagery at 14/0530 UTC. Coronagraph
imagery showed an associated CME off the NE limb at 15/0748 UTC. This
CME is not expected to have a geoeffective component, however further
analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with an increased chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 15-17 Jul.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,230 pfu at 14/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
Continued influence from the coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS)
will maintain higher than normal electron flux at geostationary orbit
through 17 Jul. The greater than 2 MeV flux will be moderate to high,
especially during the diurnal maxima, during this time.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels through 17 Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under positive polarity
CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 500 km/s
to around 600-750 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-11 nT while the Bz
component was between +/-9 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced under CH
HSS influence through 17 Jul. Fluctuations in solar wind speed are
likely depending on the connection with the HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming due to
persistent CH HSS activity.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to G1 (Minor)
levels through the rest of the UTC day on 15 Jul. Unsettled to active
levels are expected on 16 Jul followed by quiet to unsettled levels on
17 Jul as HSS conditions persist.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Jul 14     125          12          4
2025 Jul 15     128          10          3
2025 Jul 16     130          10          3
2025 Jul 17     125           8          3
2025 Jul 18     128           5          2
2025 Jul 19     122           5          2
2025 Jul 20     118           5          2
2025 Jul 21     120           5          2
2025 Jul 22     125          12          4
2025 Jul 23     125          20          4
2025 Jul 24     128          18          4
2025 Jul 25     128           8          3
2025 Jul 26     128           5          2
2025 Jul 27     130          10          4
2025 Jul 28     130           5          2
2025 Jul 29     130           5          2
2025 Jul 30     132           5          2
2025 Jul 31     130           5          2
2025 Aug 01     135          15          3
2025 Aug 02     135          20          4
2025 Aug 03     130          18          4
2025 Aug 04     128          12          4
2025 Aug 05     128           5          2
2025 Aug 06     125           5          2
2025 Aug 07     125          20          4
2025 Aug 08     125          15          4
2025 Aug 09     125          12          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey