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If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running.
Feedback is always welcome.

Alerts:
none

Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 June follow.
Solar flux 74 and estimated planetary A-index 19.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 19 June was 1.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 17 Jun 005
Estimated Ap 18 Jun 020
Predicted Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 010-008-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           15/05/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 19 Jun - 21 Jun
             Jun 19    Jun 20    Jun 21
00-03UT        3         3         2
03-06UT        4         2         2
06-09UT        3         2         1
09-12UT        2         1         1
12-15UT        2         1         1
15-18UT        2         2         1
18-21UT        2         2         2
21-00UT        2         2         1


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 19-Jun 21 2018 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 19-Jun 21 2018

            Jun 19     Jun 20     Jun 21
00-03UT        2          3          2
03-06UT        2          2          2
06-09UT        3          2          1
09-12UT        2          1          1
12-15UT        3          1          1
15-18UT        2          2          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          2          1

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 19-Jun 21 2018

              Jun 19  Jun 20  Jun 21
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 19-Jun 21 2018

              Jun 19        Jun 20        Jun 21
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2713 (N05W19,
Bxo/beta) was stable in growth and mostly inactive. Region 2714 (N08W47,
Bxo/beta) exhibited slight growth in areal spot coverage and managed a
few B-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight
chance for C-class flares all three days (19-21 Jun).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate
levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained a background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (19-21 Jun) and background
levels are expected for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were consistent with waning CH HSS influences.
Total field gradually decreased from 10 to 3 nT. The Bz component was
variable and at nominal values. Solar wind speeds were between 475 and
520 km/s. Phi was positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to trend toward background values
over the next three days (19-21 Jun) as CH HSS influences continue to
wane.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet. Active levels were observed
during the first synoptic period due to CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
days one and two (19-20 Jun) as CH HSS effects further diminish. Quiet
levels are expected on day three (21 Jun), with a return to a nominal
solar wind regime.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2018 Jun 18      72          15          5
2018 Jun 19      74           8          3
2018 Jun 20      74           5          2
2018 Jun 21      74           5          2
2018 Jun 22      74           5          2
2018 Jun 23      74           5          2
2018 Jun 24      70           8          3
2018 Jun 25      70           8          3
2018 Jun 26      70           5          2
2018 Jun 27      70          15          4
2018 Jun 28      70          28          5
2018 Jun 29      70          18          5
2018 Jun 30      70          10          3
2018 Jul 01      68           5          2
2018 Jul 02      68           5          2
2018 Jul 03      68           5          2
2018 Jul 04      68           5          2
2018 Jul 05      68           5          2
2018 Jul 06      68           5          2
2018 Jul 07      72           5          2
2018 Jul 08      72           5          2
2018 Jul 09      72           5          2
2018 Jul 10      72           5          2
2018 Jul 11      72           5          2
2018 Jul 12      72           5          2
2018 Jul 13      72           5          2
2018 Jul 14      74           5          2



 
The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running.
Feedback is always welcome.
  • GRAPH OPTIONS:

  • DATA SOURCES:

  • Planatary K Index (Kp):
  • Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast (GW):
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1):
  • ACE Observatory (L1):
  • Additional Magnetometer Sources:

 

 

The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) v3.55


The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running.
Feedback is always welcome.


v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).


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