The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running.
Feedback is always welcome.

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2773
Issue Time: 2018 Apr 25 1237 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2772
Begin Time: 2018 Apr 10 1830 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 12265 pfu
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 25 April follow.
Solar flux 71 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 26 April was 1.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 24 Apr 005
Estimated Ap 25 Apr 006
Predicted Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 008-012-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Active                20/35/15
Minor storm           10/15/01
Moderate storm        01/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 26 Apr - 28 Apr
             Apr 26    Apr 27    Apr 28
00-03UT        2         3         2
03-06UT        1         4         1
06-09UT        1         2         1
09-12UT        1         3         1
12-15UT        2         3         1
15-18UT        2         3         1
18-21UT        3         2         2
21-00UT        3         3         2


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 26-Apr 28 2018 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 26-Apr 28 2018

            Apr 26     Apr 27     Apr 28
00-03UT        2          3          2
03-06UT        1          4          1
06-09UT        1          2          1
09-12UT        1          3          1
12-15UT        2          3          1
15-18UT        2          3          1
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        3          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 26-Apr 28 2018

              Apr 26  Apr 27  Apr 28
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 26-Apr 28 2018

              Apr 26        Apr 27        Apr 28
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2018 Apr 26 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2706 (N03W10, Cro/beta) showed signs
of continued decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for
C-class flare activity, over the next three days (26-28 Apr).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 5,060 pfu at 25/1950 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
each of the next three days (25-27 Apr) with a chance of decreasing to
normal to moderate levels on days two and three (26-27 Apr). The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was at background levels. Solar wind speed
was generally less than 350 km/s throughout the reporting period. Total
field ranged from 1 to 5 nT and Bz was variable. Phi angle rotated
between positive and negative sectors.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels for
most of day one (26 Apr) then become elevated on days two and three
(27-28 Apr) with the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet for most of day
one (26 Apr). Unsettled to active levels are anticipated on days two
three (27-28 Apr) due to a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2018 Apr 23      75           5          2
2018 Apr 24      75           5          2
2018 Apr 25      75           5          2
2018 Apr 26      75           8          3
2018 Apr 27      75          12          4
2018 Apr 28      75           5          2
2018 Apr 29      75           5          2
2018 Apr 30      75           5          2
2018 May 01      75           5          2
2018 May 02      75           5          2
2018 May 03      70           5          2
2018 May 04      70           5          2
2018 May 05      70           5          2
2018 May 06      70          10          3
2018 May 07      70          15          4
2018 May 08      70          12          4
2018 May 09      70          10          3
2018 May 10      70           8          3
2018 May 11      70           5          2
2018 May 12      70           5          2
2018 May 13      70           5          2
2018 May 14      70           5          2
2018 May 15      70           5          2
2018 May 16      70           5          2
2018 May 17      75          42          6
2018 May 18      75          12          4
2018 May 19      75           8          3



 
The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running.
Feedback is always welcome.
  • GRAPH OPTIONS:

  • DATA SOURCES:

  • Planatary K Index (Kp):
  • Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast (GW):
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1):
  • ACE Observatory (L1):
  • Additional Magnetometer Sources:

 

 

The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) v3.55


The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running.
Feedback is always welcome.


v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).


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