Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1734
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 03 2002 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2007
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 03 1943 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2025 Apr 03 1943 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Apr 04 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4901
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 03 1756 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4900
Valid From: 2025 Apr 02 0123 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Apr 04 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4900
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 03 1755 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4899
Valid From: 2025 Apr 02 0123 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Apr 03 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4899
Issue Time: 2025 Apr 03 0905 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4898
Valid From: 2025 Apr 02 0123 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Apr 03 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 03 April follow.
Solar flux 178 and estimated planetary A-index 26.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 04 April was 4.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 02 Apr 022
Estimated Ap 03 Apr 025
Predicted Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 018-020-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           35/35/10
Moderate storm        15/15/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 04 Apr - 06 Apr
             Apr 04    Apr 05    Apr 06
00-03UT        1.00      5.00      2.67
03-06UT        1.00      4.00      3.33
06-09UT        2.33      3.67      2.33
09-12UT        3.67      3.33      2.00
12-15UT        3.33      2.33      2.33
15-18UT        3.33      2.33      2.00
18-21UT        3.67      2.67      2.33
21-00UT        5.00      2.67      2.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 04-Apr 06 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 04-Apr 06 2025

             Apr 04       Apr 05       Apr 06
00-03UT       1.00         4.00         2.67
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    5.00 (G1)    3.33
06-09UT       2.33         3.67         2.33
09-12UT       3.67         3.33         2.00
12-15UT       3.33         2.33         2.33
15-18UT       3.33         2.33         2.00
18-21UT       3.67         2.67         2.33
21-00UT       4.33         2.67         2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 04-05 Apr due
primarily to coronal hole influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 04-Apr 06 2025

              Apr 04  Apr 05  Apr 06
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over 04-06 Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 04-Apr 06 2025

              Apr 04        Apr 05        Apr 06
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 04-05 Apr.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Only low level C-class flares were
observed from Regions 4048 (S16E14, Fkc/beta-gamma) and 4045 (S14W18,
Cao/beta). Slight decay and separation was observed in Region 4048.
Other activity included an approximate 4 degree filament eruption
centered near S20W05 at 03/0334 UTC. An associated faint, narrow CME was
observed off the SSE limb at 03/0412 UTC. Modelling of the event showed
the majority of the CME south of the Sun-Earth line. However, a
potential grazing early on 06 Apr cannot be ruled out.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) on 04-06 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to be enhanced around 1
pfu, but well below the S1 (Minor) threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 04 Apr. A chance for high levels is likely on 05-06
Apr due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for a greater than
10 MeV proton event on 04-06 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under persistent CME
influence. Total field ranged from 2-11 nT while the Bz component was
between +/-10 nT. Solar wind speed averaged around 440 km/s. Phi angle
was positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to transition into a negative
polarity CIR/CH HSS on 04 Apr. HSS influence is expected to persist
through 06 Apr. There is a chance for a grazing from the 03 Apr CME
early on 06 Apr, however confidence is low.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels due
to persistent CME effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor)
storming on 04-05 Apr due to CIR/CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled
conditions is expected on 06 Apr as HSS effects gradually wane.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Mar 31     170           5          2
2025 Apr 01     175           5          2
2025 Apr 02     175           5          2
2025 Apr 03     175          10          3
2025 Apr 04     180          20          5
2025 Apr 05     180          35          6
2025 Apr 06     180          10          3
2025 Apr 07     185          12          3
2025 Apr 08     185          30          5
2025 Apr 09     180          35          6
2025 Apr 10     175          25          5
2025 Apr 11     175          18          4
2025 Apr 12     175          10          3
2025 Apr 13     175          15          4
2025 Apr 14     170          12          3
2025 Apr 15     170           8          3
2025 Apr 16     175           5          2
2025 Apr 17     175          10          3
2025 Apr 18     175          12          3
2025 Apr 19     170           8          3
2025 Apr 20     170          10          3
2025 Apr 21     165          15          4
2025 Apr 22     165          15          4
2025 Apr 23     170          15          4
2025 Apr 24     170          15          4
2025 Apr 25     165          10          3
2025 Apr 26     165           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.