Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5042
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 18 1437 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5041
Valid From: 2025 Jul 17 0840 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jul 18 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3498
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 18 0500 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3497
Begin Time: 2025 Jul 14 1550 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 6590 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 July follow.
Solar flux 156 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 18 July was 1.67.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 17 Jul 019
Estimated Ap 18 Jul 012
Predicted Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 010-005-005
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Moderate storm 01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 19 Jul - 21 Jul
Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul 21
00-03UT 3.00 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 3.00 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 2.67 1.67 1.67
09-12UT 2.67 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 1.67 1.00 0.67
15-18UT 1.67 0.67 1.33
18-21UT 1.00 1.67 1.00
21-00UT 2.00 1.67 1.67
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 18-Jul 20 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 18-Jul 20 2025
Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
00-03UT 2.00 3.00 1.67
03-06UT 1.00 3.00 3.00
06-09UT 2.00 2.67 2.67
09-12UT 2.67 2.67 1.67
12-15UT 3.67 1.67 1.33
15-18UT 2.00 1.67 0.67
18-21UT 2.33 1.00 1.67
21-00UT 2.67 2.00 2.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 18-Jul 20 2025
Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 18-20 Jul.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 18-Jul 20 2025
Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
R1-R2 60% 60% 60%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: Low-level solar activity is expected to continue, with
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares likely, and a slight chance for an
isolated X-class (R3-Strong) flare over 18-20 Jul.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with the majority of the low level
C-class activity originating from Region 4136 (N21W43, Dkc/beta-delta).
The largest flare was a C3.5/Sf at 18/0813 UTC from Region 4136. Slight
growth and separation occurred in Region 4136. Slight decay and
consolidation occurred in Regions 4143 (N25W31, Eki/beta-gamma). Slight
decay was observed in Regions 4139 (N22W61, Dko/beta) and 4142 (N01E02,
Dai/beta-gamma). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast...
Low-level solar activity is expected to continue, with M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares likely, and a slight chance for an
isolated X-class (R3-Strong) flare over 18-20 Jul.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 6,593 pfu observed at 17/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
18-20 Jul. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 18-20 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment remained enhanced during the period due to
continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. The total magnetic field
strength ranged between 5-8 nT, with the Bz component reaching as far
south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds peaked near 780 km/s around 17/1500
UTC before gradually decreasing in the hours that followed. The phi
remained mostly positive throughout the period.
.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to continue but gradually
weaken over 18-20 Jul as positive polarity CH HSS influence diminishes.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.
.Forecast...
Quiet to active conditions are expected on 18 Jul due to continued
positive polarity CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
anticipated on 19-20 Jul as HSS influence gradually wanes.
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Jul 14 125 12 4
2025 Jul 15 128 10 3
2025 Jul 16 130 10 3
2025 Jul 17 125 8 3
2025 Jul 18 128 5 2
2025 Jul 19 122 5 2
2025 Jul 20 118 5 2
2025 Jul 21 120 5 2
2025 Jul 22 125 12 4
2025 Jul 23 125 20 4
2025 Jul 24 128 18 4
2025 Jul 25 128 8 3
2025 Jul 26 128 5 2
2025 Jul 27 130 10 4
2025 Jul 28 130 5 2
2025 Jul 29 130 5 2
2025 Jul 30 132 5 2
2025 Jul 31 130 5 2
2025 Aug 01 135 15 3
2025 Aug 02 135 20 4
2025 Aug 03 130 18 4
2025 Aug 04 128 12 4
2025 Aug 05 128 5 2
2025 Aug 06 125 5 2
2025 Aug 07 125 20 4
2025 Aug 08 125 15 4
2025 Aug 09 125 12 4
v4.16b
v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.
v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).
Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast