Aurora Forecast

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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4760
Issue Time: 2024 Nov 20 0452 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 20 0452 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 20 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 20 November follow.
Solar flux 163 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 21 November was 0.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 19 Nov 009
Estimated Ap 20 Nov 008
Predicted Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 005-008-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Active                10/25/25
Minor storm           05/15/15
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 21 Nov - 23 Nov
             Nov 21    Nov 22    Nov 23
00-03UT        1.67      2.00      2.33
03-06UT        1.33      1.67      1.67
06-09UT        1.33      2.33      2.00
09-12UT        1.33      1.00      2.33
12-15UT        1.33      1.33      2.33
15-18UT        1.33      1.67      2.33
18-21UT        1.67      3.00      2.33
21-00UT        1.67      3.00      2.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 21-Nov 23 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 21-Nov 23 2024

             Nov 21       Nov 22       Nov 23
00-03UT       1.67         2.00         2.33
03-06UT       1.33         1.67         3.00
06-09UT       1.33         2.33         2.33
09-12UT       1.33         1.00         2.00
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       1.33         1.67         1.33
18-21UT       1.67         3.00         1.67
21-00UT       1.67         3.00         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 21-Nov 23 2024

              Nov 21  Nov 22  Nov 23
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 20 2024 1948 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 21-Nov 23 2024

              Nov 21        Nov 22        Nov 23
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for
M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) and a slight chance of X-class
(R3-Strong) events 21-23 Nov.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels following a long-duration M1.1
flare at 20/1948 UTC from Region 3897 (S12W90, Dao/beta) as it transited
the west limb. This region also produced the majority of the C-class
flare activity during the period. Region 3898 (S16W27, Cao/beta)
exhibited slight decay early in the period, but then had some
redevelopment later and managed to produced a C3.5 flare at 20/0632 UTC.
Region 3901 (S07E35, Dao/beta-gamma) added a pair of low-level C-class
flares, but remained mostly unchanged. The remaining regions were
quiescent. New Region 3902 (S17E70, Cso/beta) was numbered. While
several CMEs were observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery, none were
deemed Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) and a slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events
21-23 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to maintain background levels on 21-23 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a weakly enhanced solar wind regime
early, before transitioning to background levels the latter half of the
period. Solar wind speeds ranged between 350 km/s - 400 km/s. Total
field strength averaged near 10nT, reached a peak of 13 nT, then
decreased to remain near 5-8 nT the last half of the period. The Bz
component fluctuated between +9/-10 nT before turning mostly north, and
the phi angle was predominantly in a positive orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are anticipated to become elevated on 22-23 Nov
due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 21 Nov,
becoming quiet to unsettled, with a chance for an isolated active
period, on 22-23 Nov, due to anticipated CH HSS effects.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Nov 18     230           8          3
2024 Nov 19     235           5          2
2024 Nov 20     235          12          4
2024 Nov 21     240           5          2
2024 Nov 22     240           5          2
2024 Nov 23     240           5          2
2024 Nov 24     245           5          2
2024 Nov 25     245          10          3
2024 Nov 26     240          10          3
2024 Nov 27     245           8          3
2024 Nov 28     255           5          2
2024 Nov 29     250           5          2
2024 Nov 30     250          10          3
2024 Dec 01     240          12          4
2024 Dec 02     230           9          3
2024 Dec 03     220           8          3
2024 Dec 04     210           7          2
2024 Dec 05     205           5          2
2024 Dec 06     205          12          4
2024 Dec 07     200          12          4
2024 Dec 08     180          10          3
2024 Dec 09     170           5          2
2024 Dec 10     150           5          2
2024 Dec 11     145          10          3
2024 Dec 12     145          15          3
2024 Dec 13     140          10          3
2024 Dec 14     145           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.