Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 207
Issue Time: 2024 Mar 18 1942 UTC
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Mar 18 1902 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Mar 18 1919 UTC
End Time: 2024 Mar 18 1928 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.7
Location: S12E62
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 347
Issue Time: 2024 Mar 18 1918 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Mar 18 1916 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 991
Issue Time: 2024 Mar 18 1011 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 19: None (Below G1) Mar 20: G1 (Minor) Mar 21: G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 March follow.
Solar flux 177 and estimated planetary A-index 6.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 19 March was 3.00.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 17 Mar 003
Estimated Ap 18 Mar 005
Predicted Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 005-018-020
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Active 10/35/35
Minor storm 01/40/40
Moderate storm 01/10/10
Strong-Extreme storm 01/05/05
NOAA Kp index forecast 19 Mar - 21 Mar
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21
00-03UT 1.67 1.67 3.00
03-06UT 2.00 2.00 4.00
06-09UT 1.67 1.67 4.67
09-12UT 1.00 3.00 3.00
12-15UT 0.67 3.67 4.00
15-18UT 0.67 3.67 3.00
18-21UT 1.67 4.00 3.00
21-00UT 1.67 4.67 2.00
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 19-Mar 21 2024
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21
00-03UT 3.33 1.67 3.00
03-06UT 2.67 2.00 4.00
06-09UT 2.00 1.67 4.67 (G1)
09-12UT 1.67 3.00 3.00
12-15UT 0.67 3.67 4.00
15-18UT 0.67 3.67 3.00
18-21UT 1.67 4.00 3.00
21-00UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 2.00
Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 20-21 Mar due to the
arrival of CMEs from 17 Mar.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 18 2024 1919 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 19-21 Mar.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels (R2-Moderate) with a few M-class
flares observed during the period. The strongest event of the period was
an impulsive M6.7 flare observed at 18/1919 UTC from new Region 3615
(S12E62, Eao/beta-gamma). Since being numbered, this region has
contributed numerous C-class flares as well. Region 3612 (N22, L=014)
produced an M2.7 flare at 18/0332 UTC as it rotated around the NW limb.
Shortly after, an additional M1.0 flare was observed from Region 3614
(N16E56, Dai/beta) at 18/0414 UTC. Emerging flux was noted to the SW of
Region 3608 (N10W24, Bxo/beta) and was numbered 3616 (N02W31, Dai/beta).
Since its emergence, this region has grown rapidly over the period.
Between about 18/0200-0315 UTC, an 11 degree long filament erupted that
was centered near N13W32. At this time, no discernable CME was observed
in SOHO/LASCO imagery. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low over 19-21 Mar, with a chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above background
levels, but remained well below event threshold. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated, but
below event levels on 19 Mar, and slowly return to background levels
over 20-21 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be
at normal to moderate levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were mostly nominal. Solar wind speeds remained
steady near 300 km/s through about 18/1940 UTC when an increase to about
357 km/s was observed. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5
nT through 18/1935 UTC when an increase to 11 nT was observed. The Bz
component was mostly positive through about 18/1300 UTC when a dip to
-10 nT was observed. The Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive
sector. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at 18/2016 UTC.
.Forecast...
Ambient to weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail
over 19 Mar and the first half of 20 Mar. Enhanced solar wind conditions
are expected after midday on 20 Mar through 21 Mar due to the
anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament
eruption.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
19 Mar through midday on 20 Mar. Periods of active conditions and G1
(Minor) storming are likely during the latter half of 20 Mar through 21
Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar
filament eruption.
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Mar 18 155 5 2
2024 Mar 19 160 5 2
2024 Mar 20 162 18 5
2024 Mar 21 165 16 5
2024 Mar 22 160 5 2
2024 Mar 23 155 5 2
2024 Mar 24 155 5 2
2024 Mar 25 152 5 2
2024 Mar 26 160 5 2
2024 Mar 27 160 5 2
2024 Mar 28 162 12 3
2024 Mar 29 165 8 3
2024 Mar 30 165 5 2
2024 Mar 31 160 5 2
2024 Apr 01 155 5 2
2024 Apr 02 155 5 2
2024 Apr 03 155 15 3
2024 Apr 04 158 12 3
2024 Apr 05 160 12 3
2024 Apr 06 160 5 2
2024 Apr 07 162 5 2
2024 Apr 08 155 5 2
2024 Apr 09 150 8 3
2024 Apr 10 145 8 3
2024 Apr 11 148 8 3
2024 Apr 12 148 5 2
2024 Apr 13 152 5 2
v4.16b
v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
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v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
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v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
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User Interface Upgrades.
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v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
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Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
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v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
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DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
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Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).
Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast