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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3676
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 15 0756 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3675
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 03 0920 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1705 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 14 April follow.
Solar flux 101 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 15 April was 1.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 13 Apr 003
Estimated Ap 14 Apr 006
Predicted Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 012-008-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Active                35/25/10
Minor storm           25/05/01
Moderate storm        05/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 15 Apr - 17 Apr
             Apr 15    Apr 16    Apr 17
00-03UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
03-06UT        3.00      2.67      1.67
06-09UT        4.00      2.67      1.67
09-12UT        2.67      2.33      1.33
12-15UT        2.67      1.67      1.33
15-18UT        1.67      1.67      1.33
18-21UT        1.67      1.67      1.33
21-00UT        2.00      2.33      1.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 15-Apr 17 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 15-Apr 17 2026

             Apr 15       Apr 16       Apr 17
00-03UT       0.67         1.67         2.33
03-06UT       1.33         2.67         2.67
06-09UT       1.33         2.67         4.00
09-12UT       0.67         2.33         3.67
12-15UT       2.67         1.67         3.33
15-18UT       2.33         1.67         2.67
18-21UT       2.33         1.67         3.33
21-00UT       1.67         2.33         3.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 15-Apr 17 2026

              Apr 15  Apr 16  Apr 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 15-Apr 17 2026

              Apr 15        Apr 16        Apr 17
R1-R2           10%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 15-17 Apr, primarily due to the development of Region 4419.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels with only isolated B-class flaring
mostly from Region 4416 (N20W37, Dso/beta). There are currently four
numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4416 remains the largest
group by area but exhibited signs of structural weakening, including
flux submergence and a slight decay of its intermediary pores. Region
4419 (N13E58, Csi/beta-gamma) was the most complex group on the disk and
showed flux emergence, growth, and divergence within its intermediary
spots, leading to the development of a mixed-polarity gamma
configuration. Region 4418 (S11W07, Bxo/beta) is trending toward plage
with only two small bipolar pores remaining and Region 4415 (S18W05,
Hsx/alpha) remained stable. CMEs observed in coronagraph imagery were
determined to be directed away from Earth.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low to very low levels, with a
slight chance for M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 17 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
with a peak of 1705 pfu observed at 14/1445 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels
through 17 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels through 17 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning coronal hole high speed stream
influences toward a nominal regime. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained
steady and weak, generally ranging between 4 and 6 nT. The North-South
(Bz) component was predominantly northward, though it exhibited
occasional southward deviations with a maximum deflection of -4 nT.
Solar wind speeds underwent a gradual, albeit erratic, decline from
early-period highs near 420 km/s, to stabilize around 375 km/s by the
end of the reporting period. The phi angle was predominantly oriented in
a positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain primarily near nominal
levels through 16 Apr. Significant enhancements are anticipated on 17
Apr with the onset of a corotating interaction region (CIR) that will
precede the arrival of a negative polarity high-speed stream (-CH HSS).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled
through 16 Apr. Activity is forecast to increase on 17 Apr to active
levels in response to the arrival of the CIR and the subsequent onset of
the -CH HSS.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Apr 13      95           8          3
2026 Apr 14      90           8          3
2026 Apr 15     100          12          3
2026 Apr 16     105           8          3
2026 Apr 17     110           5          2
2026 Apr 18     110          15          3
2026 Apr 19     110          20          4
2026 Apr 20     120          12          4
2026 Apr 21     130          10          3
2026 Apr 22     140           8          3
2026 Apr 23     145           5          2
2026 Apr 24     145           8          3
2026 Apr 25     140          12          4
2026 Apr 26     140          10          3
2026 Apr 27     140           5          2
2026 Apr 28     140           5          2
2026 Apr 29     135          20          5
2026 Apr 30     130          18          5
2026 May 01     125          12          4
2026 May 02     125          10          3
2026 May 03     115           8          3
2026 May 04     108           8          3
2026 May 05     105           5          2
2026 May 06     100           5          2
2026 May 07      95          20          4
2026 May 08      90          15          3
2026 May 09      90           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey