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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3651
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 19 0459 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3650
Begin Time: 2026 Mar 15 1630 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2949 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 265
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 18 2114 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 19:  G2 (Moderate)   Mar 20:  G2 (Moderate)   Mar 21:  G2 (Moderate)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 March follow.
Solar flux 113 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 19 March was 0.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 17 Mar 004
Estimated Ap 18 Mar 007
Predicted Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 028-044-050

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           20/25/25
Moderate storm        30/25/30
Strong-Extreme storm  25/30/35

NOAA Kp index forecast 19 Mar - 21 Mar
             Mar 19    Mar 20    Mar 21
00-03UT        1.67      6.33      4.33
03-06UT        2.00      6.00      6.33
06-09UT        2.33      4.67      5.67
09-12UT        3.00      4.33      5.00
12-15UT        3.33      4.33      5.00
15-18UT        4.33      4.00      4.67
18-21UT        5.33      4.00      4.67
21-00UT        6.00      3.33      4.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 19-Mar 21 2026 is 6.33 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 19-Mar 21 2026

             Mar 19       Mar 20       Mar 21
00-03UT       0.67         6.33 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       0.67         6.00 (G2)    6.33 (G2)
06-09UT       0.67         4.67 (G1)    5.67 (G2)
09-12UT       0.67         4.33         5.33 (G1)
12-15UT       3.33         3.33         4.33
15-18UT       4.33         3.67         4.67 (G1)
18-21UT       5.33 (G1)    4.00         4.67 (G1)
21-00UT       6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)    4.33

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected over
19-21 Mar due to combined effects of various potential CME arrivals and
a negative polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2026

              Mar 19  Mar 20  Mar 21
S1 or greater    5%      5%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 21 Mar due to potential accelerated particles ahead
of the anticipated CME arrival.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2026

              Mar 19        Mar 20        Mar 21
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, on 19-21 Mar, primarily due
to the flaring potential of Region 4392.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels, with the largest flare of the period
being a C3.6 at 18/1311 UTC from Region 4392 (S17W26, Csi/beta-gamma).
This region has shown sporadic growth and reorganization in the
peripheral spots over the week, but looks to slowly consolidating and
canceling magnetic flux. Regions 4391 (N07, L=66) and 4395 (S06, L=6)
fully decayed to plage. The remaining regions are either in slight decay
or stable.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2;
Minor-Moderate) level events 19-21 Mar due primarily to the minor
instability and variability of Region 4392.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a
peak of 2,949 pfu at 18/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to have a brief return to
normal-moderate levels on late 19 Mar and 20 Mar, due to CME arrival,
returning to high levels on 21 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to continue at background values, with a slight chance for
an S1 (Minor) level event 19-21 Mar due to possible CME shock
enhancement influences.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near background conditions, with a very
coherent magnetic structure appearing after 18/2315 UTC. Total IMF
strength averaged near 4 nT. The Bz component was predominantly
northward, and solar wind speed gradually decreased from 400 km/s to end
the period around 350 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced on 19 Mar as
the 16-17 Mar CMEs are expected to arrive. The disturbed solar
environment is likely to continue as CME passage persists into 20 Mar.
By 21 Mar, the CME from 18 Mar is expected to arrive in conjunction with
the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to become enhanced on 19-21 Mar as
multiple CMEs and a negative polarity CH HSS impact Earth. Active to G2
(Moderate) storm levels are likely on 19-20 Mar as CMEs from 16-17 Mar
are anticipated to arrive. Additional G2 (Moderate) storm conditions are
likely, with G3 (Strong) conditions possible, on 21 Mar as the CME from
18 Mar is expected to arrive in conjunction with the onset of a negative
polarity CH HSS.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Mar 16     108          15          4
2026 Mar 17     108          10          3
2026 Mar 18     105           8          3
2026 Mar 19     105           5          2
2026 Mar 20     105          10          3
2026 Mar 21     100          35          5
2026 Mar 22     102          25          5
2026 Mar 23     105          15          4
2026 Mar 24     110          15          4
2026 Mar 25     100          18          5
2026 Mar 26     110          10          3
2026 Mar 27     120           8          3
2026 Mar 28     125           5          2
2026 Mar 29     125           5          2
2026 Mar 30     125          15          4
2026 Mar 31     125          10          3
2026 Apr 01     130           5          2
2026 Apr 02     135           5          2
2026 Apr 03     140          18          5
2026 Apr 04     135          20          5
2026 Apr 05     135           8          3
2026 Apr 06     130          15          4
2026 Apr 07     135           8          3
2026 Apr 08     130           5          2
2026 Apr 09     125          25          5
2026 Apr 10     120          40          6
2026 Apr 11     115          20          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey