Aurora Forecast

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Alerts:
none

Solar-terrestrial indices for 04 February follow.
Solar flux 139 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 04 February was 0.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 03 Feb 009
Estimated Ap 04 Feb 008
Predicted Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005-010-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Active                10/25/40
Minor storm           01/05/15
Moderate storm        01/01/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 05 Feb - 07 Feb
             Feb 05    Feb 06    Feb 07
00-03UT        1.67      1.67      4.00
03-06UT        1.33      1.33      3.67
06-09UT        1.33      1.33      3.00
09-12UT        1.33      1.67      2.67
12-15UT        1.33      2.33      2.33
15-18UT        1.33      2.67      2.33
18-21UT        1.67      3.00      2.67
21-00UT        1.67      3.33      2.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 04-Feb 06 2023 is 3.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 04-Feb 06 2023

             Feb 04       Feb 05       Feb 06
00-03UT       2.67         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       3.00         1.33         1.33
06-09UT       1.00         1.33         1.33
09-12UT       0.67         1.33         1.67
12-15UT       1.67         1.33         2.33
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         2.67
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         3.00
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 04-Feb 06 2023

              Feb 04  Feb 05  Feb 06
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 04-Feb 06 2023

              Feb 04        Feb 05        Feb 06
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 3207 (S13E17, Cai/beta) and new Region
3211 (S16W22, Bxo/beta) were responsible for the majority of the low
level C-class activity. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3209
(N18E48, Dro/beta), 3210 (S15W12, Cro/beta), and 3211. The rest of the
spotted regions were either stable or in decay.

An 8 degree filament centered near N25W10 began erupting at 03/0844 UTC
in SUVI 304 imagery. A possible associated CME was observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery off the NW beginning at 03/1036 UTC. The CME is
currently being remodeled.

Another filament eruption that occurred in the SE near S15E50 at 04/0040
UTC had a likely associated CME off the E limb in C2 imagery beginning
at 04/0125 UTC. Modelling is currently in progress.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 04-06 Feb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 04-06 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced early in the period with
total field reaching 11 nT and the Bz component near -8 nT. By 03/1800
UTC, total field began to decrease to around 5-7 nT. Solar wind speed
decreased from approximately 370 km/s to near 300 km/s. Phi angle became
variable after 03/1947 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels on
04-05 Feb. Late on 06 Feb, parameters are expected to increase due to
negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are expected on 04-05 Feb followed by quiet to
unsettled levels on 06 Feb due to CH HSS influence.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2023 Jan 30     140           5          2
2023 Jan 31     140           5          2
2023 Feb 01     135           5          2
2023 Feb 02     135          12          4
2023 Feb 03     135          12          4
2023 Feb 04     135           8          3
2023 Feb 05     135           5          2
2023 Feb 06     140           5          2
2023 Feb 07     145          12          4
2023 Feb 08     150          12          4
2023 Feb 09     150          15          4
2023 Feb 10     155          12          4
2023 Feb 11     155           5          2
2023 Feb 12     155           8          3
2023 Feb 13     155           8          3
2023 Feb 14     150           5          2
2023 Feb 15     150           5          2
2023 Feb 16     145           5          2
2023 Feb 17     145           5          2
2023 Feb 18     140           8          3
2023 Feb 19     140           7          2
2023 Feb 20     135           5          2
2023 Feb 21     130           5          2
2023 Feb 22     130          10          3
2023 Feb 23     130          10          3
2023 Feb 24     125          10          3
2023 Feb 25     125           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.