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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
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Solar-terrestrial indices for 26 January follow.
Solar flux 102 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 27 January was 2.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 25 Jan 013
Estimated Ap 26 Jan 012
Predicted Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 008-005-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           01/01/20
Moderate storm        01/01/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 27 Jan - 29 Jan
             Jan 27    Jan 28    Jan 29
00-03UT        3         2         3
03-06UT        3         2         2
06-09UT        2         1         2
09-12UT        3         1         3
12-15UT        1         1         3
15-18UT        1         1         3
18-21UT        2         2         3
21-00UT        1         1         4


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 27-Jan 29 2022 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 27-Jan 29 2022

            Jan 27     Jan 28     Jan 29
00-03UT        1          2          3
03-06UT        1          2          2
06-09UT        1          1          2
09-12UT        2          1          3
12-15UT        2          1          3
15-18UT        2          1          3
18-21UT        2          2          3
21-00UT        3          1          4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2022

              Jan 27  Jan 28  Jan 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 27-Jan 29 2022

              Jan 27        Jan 28        Jan 29
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels. A C1 flare, the largest of the
period, was observed from Region 2936 (N16E33, Dro/beta). Region 2934
(S24W24, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and inactive. Region 2935 (N27W28,
Bxo/beta) lost and reformed its trailing spots. Region 2937 (S19W13,
Cro/beta) lost penumbra on both poles while its leading and trailing
spots separated. Region 2938 (N17E56, Bxo/beta) maintained a few
immature spots and was inactive.

No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
activity (R1-R2 Radio Blackouts) on 27-29 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
levels on 27-29 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was somewhat disturbed with lingering CME and
CH HSS influences. Total field peaked at 8 nT early in the period and
the Bz component did not undergo significant deviations. Wind speed
averaged around 475 km/s. Phi was highly variable.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced through
the remainder of 27 Jan due to a combination of CME and CH HSS
influences. Waning influence is forecast on 28 Jan. Another positive
polarity CH HSS is forecast to become geoeffective on 29 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to unsettled
levels through the rest of 27 Jan with lingering, but waning, CME and
positive polarity CH HSS influences. Conditions are expected to improve
on 28 Jan with mostly quiet conditions expected. Quiet to active
conditions are forecast for 29 Jan with the onset of another positive
polarity CH HSS.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2022 Jan 24      90          12          4
2022 Jan 25      90           8          3
2022 Jan 26      88          12          4
2022 Jan 27      87           8          3
2022 Jan 28      92           5          2
2022 Jan 29      94          12          4
2022 Jan 30      96          10          3
2022 Jan 31      96           5          2
2022 Feb 01      98           5          2
2022 Feb 02     100           5          2
2022 Feb 03     105           5          2
2022 Feb 04     105          15          5
2022 Feb 05     108          10          3
2022 Feb 06     108           5          2
2022 Feb 07     108           5          2
2022 Feb 08     110           5          2
2022 Feb 09     110           5          2
2022 Feb 10     108          12          4
2022 Feb 11     106          15          5
2022 Feb 12     105          12          4
2022 Feb 13     103           5          2
2022 Feb 14     101           5          2
2022 Feb 15     100           5          2
2022 Feb 16      95           5          2
2022 Feb 17      92           5          2
2022 Feb 18      92           5          2
2022 Feb 19      90           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.15b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2020 Brendan Davey