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Ovation: South
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Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5319
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 18 2246 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5318
Valid From: 2026 Apr 18 0157 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Apr 19 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2009
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 18 1124 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 713
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 18 0825 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 654
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 18 0752 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2026 Apr 18 0751 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Apr 18 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2008
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 18 0741 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 2007
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 18 0528 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2650
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 18 0414 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5318
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 18 0158 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Apr 18 0157 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Apr 18 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 April follow.
Solar flux 106 and estimated planetary A-index 34.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 18 April was 3.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 17 Apr 004
Estimated Ap 18 Apr 038
Predicted Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 025-018-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Active                20/45/40
Minor storm           40/15/10
Moderate storm        25/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 19 Apr - 21 Apr
             Apr 19    Apr 20    Apr 21
00-03UT        5.00      3.67      3.33
03-06UT        4.67      3.67      4.00
06-09UT        4.00      3.33      3.00
09-12UT        3.33      3.33      2.67
12-15UT        3.67      3.33      2.33
15-18UT        3.00      2.00      3.00
18-21UT        3.00      3.33      2.67
21-00UT        3.33      3.33      2.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 18-Apr 20 2026 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 18-Apr 20 2026

             Apr 18       Apr 19       Apr 20
00-03UT       3.33         5.00 (G1)    3.67
03-06UT       5.00 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    3.67
06-09UT       5.67 (G2)    4.00         3.33
09-12UT       5.00 (G1)    3.33         3.33
12-15UT       5.00 (G1)    3.67         3.33
15-18UT       4.33         3.00         2.00
18-21UT       4.00         3.00         3.33
21-00UT       6.00 (G2)    3.33         3.33

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels are
expected on 18 Apr as negative polarity CH HSS geomagnetic conditions
persist. Active to G1 (Minor) levels are expected to continue through 19
Apr, followed by unsettled to active conditions on 20 Apr, as HSS
effects linger.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2026

              Apr 18  Apr 19  Apr 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2026

              Apr 18        Apr 19        Apr 20
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flares on 18-20
Apr, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 4419.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4416 (N22W85, Cso/beta)
produced the largest event of the period, a C1.6 flare at 18/0704 UTC,
as it rotated around the western limb. Region 4419 (N13E8,
Eki/beta-gamma) displayed slight decay and consolidation in its trailing
spots, with the leader spots separating yet decaying as well. Region
4415 (S18W68, Hsx/alpha) remained unchanged and was unremarkable.

From around 18/0730-0823 UTC, an approximately 30 degree long eruptive
filament was observed in GONG H-alpha and GOES-19 SUVI imagery lifting
off the solar disk. The associated CME will be modeled when coronagraph
imagery becomes available.

No other Earth directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flares on 18-20 Apr, primarily due to the flare
potential of Region 4419.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak of 2,441 pfu observed at 17/1650 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to briefly drop to
normal to moderate levels on 18 Apr with the arrival of a negative
polarity CH HSS. Flux levels are expected to increase back to high
levels on 19-20 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels on 18-20 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels the first half of the
reporting period. At around 17/2300 UTC, enhancements were noted as the
anticipated CH HSS moved into a geoeffective position. Total field
increased to a peak of 17 nT, while the Bz component was mostly
negative, seeing a maximum southward deflection to -14 nT. Solar wind
speeds varied between approximately 280-360 km/s before gradually
increasing to a maximum velocity of ~540 km/s. Phi rotated into a
negative orientation just after 18/2300 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 18 Apr as
negative polarity CH HSS influence persists. Solar wind speeds ranging
from 600-700 km/s are likely based on recurrent values. Enhanced
conditions are expected to continue through 20 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) levels before increasing to G2
(Moderate) levels after 18/0825 UTC.

.Forecast...
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels are expected on 18
Apr as negative polarity CH HSS geomagnetic conditions persist. Active
to G1 (Minor) levels are expected to continue through 19 Apr, followed
by unsettled to active conditions on 20 Apr, as HSS effects linger.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Apr 13      95           8          3
2026 Apr 14      90           8          3
2026 Apr 15     100          12          3
2026 Apr 16     105           8          3
2026 Apr 17     110           5          2
2026 Apr 18     110          15          3
2026 Apr 19     110          20          4
2026 Apr 20     120          12          4
2026 Apr 21     130          10          3
2026 Apr 22     140           8          3
2026 Apr 23     145           5          2
2026 Apr 24     145           8          3
2026 Apr 25     140          12          4
2026 Apr 26     140          10          3
2026 Apr 27     140           5          2
2026 Apr 28     140           5          2
2026 Apr 29     135          20          5
2026 Apr 30     130          18          5
2026 May 01     125          12          4
2026 May 02     125          10          3
2026 May 03     115           8          3
2026 May 04     108           8          3
2026 May 05     105           5          2
2026 May 06     100           5          2
2026 May 07      95          20          4
2026 May 08      90          15          3
2026 May 09      90           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey