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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5266
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 22 0800 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5265
Valid From: 2026 Feb 21 2230 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Feb 22 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 642
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 22 0800 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2026 Feb 22 0800 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Feb 22 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2197
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 22 0800 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2196
Valid From: 2026 Feb 22 0425 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Feb 22 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1968
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 22 0740 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1967
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 22 0503 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2196
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 22 0425 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Feb 22 0425 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Feb 22 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2634
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 21 2243 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5265
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 21 2230 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Feb 21 2230 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Feb 22 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 22 February follow.
Solar flux 110 and estimated planetary A-index 33.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 22 February was 4.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 20 Feb 012
Estimated Ap 21 Feb 013
Predicted Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 015-020-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Active                35/25/35
Minor storm           20/35/20
Moderate storm        05/20/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/05/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 22 Feb - 24 Feb
             Feb 22    Feb 23    Feb 24
00-03UT        2.67      3.67      3.67
03-06UT        3.67      4.67      3.67
06-09UT        2.67      3.67      2.67
09-12UT        1.67      3.67      2.67
12-15UT        2.67      2.67      2.00
15-18UT        2.67      2.67      1.67
18-21UT        3.67      2.67      1.67
21-00UT        3.67      3.67      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 22-Feb 24 2026 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 22-Feb 24 2026

             Feb 22       Feb 23       Feb 24
00-03UT       4.00         3.67         3.67
03-06UT       5.00 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    3.67
06-09UT       5.33 (G1)    3.67         2.67
09-12UT       4.00         3.67         2.67
12-15UT       2.67         2.67         2.00
15-18UT       2.67         2.67         1.67
18-21UT       3.67         2.67         1.67
21-00UT       3.67         3.67         2.67

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1/G2
(Minor/Moderate) storm levels on 22 Feb, followed by likely G1 storming
conditions on 23 Feb, due to CIR effects and negative polarity CH HSS
influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2026

              Feb 22  Feb 23  Feb 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2026

              Feb 22        Feb 23        Feb 24
R1-R2            5%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for isolated (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
radio blackouts over 23-24 Feb.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased slightly to low levels following a C1.2 flare
at 22/0037 UTC and a subsequent C2.2 flare at 22/0633 UTC, both from
near Region 4374 (N10, L=065) as it completed its transit beyond the
west limb. A B7.7 flare was also observed at 22/0111 UTC from an area of
plage near N13E40. Aside from this minor activity, the visible disk was
spotless and relatively inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected
in available imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares on 22-24 Feb, and a slight chance for isolated M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over 23-24 Feb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach moderate to high
levels on 22-24 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
persist at background levels through 24 Feb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment reflected enhanced conditions following the
likely passing of a suspected embedded transient, combined with onset of
a CIR and subsequent negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field
strength reached 16 nT, the Bz component ranged between +10/-13 nT, and
solar wind speeds increased from around 460 km/s to a peak near 650
km/s. The phi angle was in a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to prevail over 22-24 Feb due
to persistent CIR/negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storming levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1/G2 (Minor/Moderate) storm
levels on 22 Feb, followed by likely G1 storming conditions on 23 Feb,
due to CIR effects and negative polarity CH HSS influences.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Feb 16     115          20          5
2026 Feb 17     115          12          4
2026 Feb 18     110          10          3
2026 Feb 19     110           8          3
2026 Feb 20     110           5          2
2026 Feb 21     105           5          2
2026 Feb 22     120           5          2
2026 Feb 23     130           8          3
2026 Feb 24     135          20          5
2026 Feb 25     130          20          5
2026 Feb 26     130           8          3
2026 Feb 27     140           5          2
2026 Feb 28     160           5          2
2026 Mar 01     165           5          2
2026 Mar 02     170           5          2
2026 Mar 03     170           5          2
2026 Mar 04     170           5          2
2026 Mar 05     165          15          4
2026 Mar 06     165          15          4
2026 Mar 07     165           8          3
2026 Mar 08     145           5          2
2026 Mar 09     140           8          3
2026 Mar 10     130          18          5
2026 Mar 11     130           8          3
2026 Mar 12     120          12          3
2026 Mar 13     120           5          2
2026 Mar 14     120          20          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey