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Ovation: South
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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
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Solar-terrestrial indices for 13 April follow.
Solar flux 73 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 13 April was 1.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 12 Apr 005
Estimated Ap 13 Apr 005
Predicted Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 005-008-018

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Active                15/25/35
Minor storm           01/05/30
Moderate storm        01/01/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 14 Apr - 16 Apr
             Apr 14    Apr 15    Apr 16
00-03UT        2         3         2
03-06UT        2         2         1
06-09UT        2         2         3
09-12UT        1         2         3
12-15UT        1         1         3
15-18UT        1         1         4
18-21UT        2         2         4
21-00UT        2         2         4


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 13-Apr 15 2021 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 13-Apr 15 2021

            Apr 13     Apr 14     Apr 15
00-03UT        0          2          3
03-06UT        2          2          2
06-09UT        1          2          2
09-12UT        2          1          2
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          2          1
18-21UT        2          3          2
21-00UT        2          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 13-Apr 15 2021

              Apr 13  Apr 14  Apr 15
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 13-Apr 15 2021

              Apr 13        Apr 14        Apr 15
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2814 (S22E03, Cao/beta) was
responsible for multiple B-class flares, the largest of which was a
B8/Sf flare at 12/2004 UTC. Region 2814 continued to show slight growth
and development over the period but maintains a simple beta magnetic
configuration.

Other activity included two prominent eruptions. The first was centered
near S38 on the SW limb beginning at 12/2327 UTC while the second was
centered at S20 on the SE limb beginning at 13/0527 UTC.  There was no
evident CME signature in the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph on the prominence
eruption off the SW limb. We are currently waiting on further
coronagraph imagery for the SE limb, however any potential CMEs are not
likely to have an Earth-directed component based on their location.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flares from Region 2814.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on 13-15 Apr and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed
ranging from 342-387 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz
component was between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative with
deviations into a positive sector between 12/1250-1905 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at or near nominal levels
on 13-15 Apr. Influences from a small, isolated positive polarity CH HSS
may cause mild disturbances on 14-15 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 13-15 Apr with
possible isolated unsettled conditions on 14-15 Apr due to minor CH HSS
influences.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2021 Apr 12      72           5          2
2021 Apr 13      72           5          2
2021 Apr 14      72           8          3
2021 Apr 15      72           8          3
2021 Apr 16      72           5          2
2021 Apr 17      72          20          5
2021 Apr 18      72           8          3
2021 Apr 19      72           8          3
2021 Apr 20      72           5          2
2021 Apr 21      75           5          2
2021 Apr 22      75          10          4
2021 Apr 23      75           8          3
2021 Apr 24      75           8          3
2021 Apr 25      75           5          2
2021 Apr 26      75           5          2
2021 Apr 27      75          10          4
2021 Apr 28      75           8          3
2021 Apr 29      75           5          2
2021 Apr 30      75           5          2
2021 May 01      75           5          2
2021 May 02      75           5          2
2021 May 03      75           5          2
2021 May 04      75          15          4
2021 May 05      75           5          2
2021 May 06      75           5          2
2021 May 07      75           5          2
2021 May 08      75           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.15b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2020 Brendan Davey