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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3639
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 02 0500 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3638
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 23 1045 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 7042 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 01 March follow.
Solar flux 147 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 02 March was 1.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 28 Feb 008
Estimated Ap 01 Mar 010
Predicted Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 010-012-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Active                15/40/15
Minor storm           05/15/05
Moderate storm        05/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 02 Mar - 04 Mar
             Mar 02    Mar 03    Mar 04
00-03UT        2.67      3.33      2.33
03-06UT        2.33      3.67      2.67
06-09UT        2.00      2.67      2.33
09-12UT        2.00      2.00      2.33
12-15UT        2.00      2.00      2.00
15-18UT        2.33      2.33      2.00
18-21UT        3.00      2.67      2.00
21-00UT        3.00      2.67      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 02-Mar 04 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 02-Mar 04 2026

             Mar 02       Mar 03       Mar 04
00-03UT       1.67         3.33         2.33
03-06UT       1.00         3.67         2.67
06-09UT       1.33         2.67         2.33
09-12UT       1.00         2.00         2.33
12-15UT       1.00         2.00         2.00
15-18UT       1.33         2.33         2.00
18-21UT       2.00         2.67         2.00
21-00UT       3.00         2.67         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 02-Mar 04 2026

              Mar 02  Mar 03  Mar 04
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 02-Mar 04 2026

              Mar 02        Mar 03        Mar 04
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale:  There is a chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 04 Mar.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels with frequent C-class flaring.
Regions 4381 (N08E48, Eho/beta) and 4384 (N10E70, Dso/beta) were
responsible for the vast majority of the flare activity. Region 4381
remained mostly unchanged in total area but showed evidence of new flux
emergence and an increase in longitudinal length. Region 4384 rotated
further into view, but was still too foreshortened for accurate magnetic
identification. However, additional trailing spots were observed
rotating onto the visible disk with increasing flare activty noted from
this region, including a C4.5 flare at 02/0438 UTC, the largest of the
period.

Region 4378 (N15E15, Cho/beta) regained a couple of its trailing spots,
but remained inactive. Region 4380 (S21E35, Cao/beta) exhibited
simplification and a loss of area in the penumbra of its trailing spots,
decaying to a C-group. Region 4382 (N22, L=278) decayed to plage while
Region 4383 (N15W17, Cro/beta) had a few additional spots emerge, but
remained inactive.

At around 02/0230 UTC, an approximately 20 degree long filament,
centered near N53E28, was observed lifting off the visible disk.
Simultaneously, at around 02/1000 UTC, an approximately 11 degree long
filament, centered near N10W68, was observed erupting near the west
limb. Coronagraph imagery is beginning to update as of this writing, and
analysis will be conducted on both of these events as more data becomes
available.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 04 Mar.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
7,042 pfu observed at 01/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
02-04 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels through 04 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of an ambient solar wind regime.
Solar wind speed averaged near 350 km/s, total magnetic field was
hovered between 4-6 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/-5
nT. The Phi angle remained mostly in the negative (towards the Sun)
orientation with frequent oscillations into the positive sector.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind conditions are possible through 02 - 04 Mar
due to the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels, with a
chance for an isolated active period, by the end of 02 Mar as positive
polarity CH HSS influences begin. Activity is likely to persist at
mostly unsettled to active levels on 03-04 Mar as high-speed stream
influences continue to influence geomagnetic activity.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Mar 02     150          10          3
2026 Mar 03     150          12          4
2026 Mar 04     150           8          3
2026 Mar 05     155           5          2
2026 Mar 06     158           8          3
2026 Mar 07     156           5          2
2026 Mar 08     156           8          3
2026 Mar 09     150          10          3
2026 Mar 10     145          18          4
2026 Mar 11     140          10          3
2026 Mar 12     135          15          4
2026 Mar 13     128          10          3
2026 Mar 14     125          15          4
2026 Mar 15     120          15          4
2026 Mar 16     118          10          3
2026 Mar 17     115          10          3
2026 Mar 18     120          10          3
2026 Mar 19     120          12          3
2026 Mar 20     120          15          4
2026 Mar 21     122          35          6
2026 Mar 22     122          24          5
2026 Mar 23     125          15          4
2026 Mar 24     128          15          4
2026 Mar 25     128          18          4
2026 Mar 26     130          10          3
2026 Mar 27     135           8          3
2026 Mar 28     140           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey