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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5
Serial Number: 207
Issue Time: 2024 Mar 18 1942 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Mar 18 1902 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Mar 18 1919 UTC
End Time: 2024 Mar 18 1928 UTC
X-ray Class: M6.7
Location: S12E62
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 347
Issue Time: 2024 Mar 18 1918 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Mar 18 1916 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 991
Issue Time: 2024 Mar 18 1011 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 19:  None (Below G1)   Mar 20:  G1 (Minor)   Mar 21:  G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 March follow.
Solar flux 177 and estimated planetary A-index 6.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 19 March was 3.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 17 Mar 003
Estimated Ap 18 Mar 005
Predicted Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 005-018-020

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Active                10/35/35
Minor storm           01/40/40
Moderate storm        01/10/10
Strong-Extreme storm  01/05/05

NOAA Kp index forecast 19 Mar - 21 Mar
             Mar 19    Mar 20    Mar 21
00-03UT        1.67      1.67      3.00
03-06UT        2.00      2.00      4.00
06-09UT        1.67      1.67      4.67
09-12UT        1.00      3.00      3.00
12-15UT        0.67      3.67      4.00
15-18UT        0.67      3.67      3.00
18-21UT        1.67      4.00      3.00
21-00UT        1.67      4.67      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 19-Mar 21 2024

             Mar 19       Mar 20       Mar 21
00-03UT       3.33         1.67         3.00
03-06UT       2.67         2.00         4.00
06-09UT       2.00         1.67         4.67 (G1)
09-12UT       1.67         3.00         3.00
12-15UT       0.67         3.67         4.00
15-18UT       0.67         3.67         3.00
18-21UT       1.67         4.00         3.00
21-00UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 20-21 Mar due to the
arrival of CMEs from 17 Mar.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024

              Mar 19  Mar 20  Mar 21
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 18 2024 1919 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024

              Mar 19        Mar 20        Mar 21
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 19-21 Mar.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels (R2-Moderate) with a few M-class
flares observed during the period. The strongest event of the period was
an impulsive M6.7 flare observed at 18/1919 UTC from new Region 3615
(S12E62, Eao/beta-gamma). Since being numbered, this region has
contributed numerous C-class flares as well. Region 3612 (N22, L=014)
produced an M2.7 flare at 18/0332 UTC as it rotated around the NW limb.
Shortly after, an additional M1.0 flare was observed from Region 3614
(N16E56, Dai/beta) at 18/0414 UTC. Emerging flux was noted to the SW of
Region 3608 (N10W24, Bxo/beta) and was numbered 3616 (N02W31, Dai/beta).
Since its emergence, this region has grown rapidly over the period.

Between about 18/0200-0315 UTC, an 11 degree long filament erupted that
was centered near N13W32. At this time, no discernable CME was observed
in SOHO/LASCO imagery. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low over 19-21 Mar, with a chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above background
levels, but remained well below event threshold. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated, but
below event levels on 19 Mar, and slowly return to background levels
over 20-21 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be
at normal to moderate levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were mostly nominal. Solar wind speeds remained
steady near 300 km/s through about 18/1940 UTC when an increase to about
357 km/s was observed. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5
nT through 18/1935 UTC when an increase to 11 nT was observed. The Bz
component was mostly positive through about 18/1300 UTC when a dip to
-10 nT was observed. The Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive
sector. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at 18/2016 UTC.

.Forecast...
Ambient to weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail
over 19 Mar and the first half of 20 Mar. Enhanced solar wind conditions
are expected after midday on 20 Mar through 21 Mar due to the
anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament
eruption.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
19 Mar through midday on 20 Mar. Periods of active conditions and G1
(Minor) storming are likely during the latter half of 20 Mar through 21
Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar
filament eruption.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Mar 18     155           5          2
2024 Mar 19     160           5          2
2024 Mar 20     162          18          5
2024 Mar 21     165          16          5
2024 Mar 22     160           5          2
2024 Mar 23     155           5          2
2024 Mar 24     155           5          2
2024 Mar 25     152           5          2
2024 Mar 26     160           5          2
2024 Mar 27     160           5          2
2024 Mar 28     162          12          3
2024 Mar 29     165           8          3
2024 Mar 30     165           5          2
2024 Mar 31     160           5          2
2024 Apr 01     155           5          2
2024 Apr 02     155           5          2
2024 Apr 03     155          15          3
2024 Apr 04     158          12          3
2024 Apr 05     160          12          3
2024 Apr 06     160           5          2
2024 Apr 07     162           5          2
2024 Apr 08     155           5          2
2024 Apr 09     150           8          3
2024 Apr 10     145           8          3
2024 Apr 11     148           8          3
2024 Apr 12     148           5          2
2024 Apr 13     152           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey