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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3682
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 22 0503 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3681
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 19 1920 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4987 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5326
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 21 1651 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5325
Valid From: 2026 Apr 20 0805 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Apr 21 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3681
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 21 1341 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3680
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 19 1920 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1344 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 21 April follow.
Solar flux 112 and estimated planetary A-index 19.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 22 April was 0.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 20 Apr 024
Estimated Ap 21 Apr 020
Predicted Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 008-008-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 22 Apr - 24 Apr
             Apr 22    Apr 23    Apr 24
00-03UT        2.67      2.33      2.33
03-06UT        2.00      2.00      2.67
06-09UT        2.33      2.00      2.67
09-12UT        2.00      2.00      1.67
12-15UT        2.00      0.67      1.33
15-18UT        2.33      2.00      2.00
18-21UT        2.00      2.67      2.00
21-00UT        2.00      3.00      2.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 22-Apr 24 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 22-Apr 24 2026

             Apr 22       Apr 23       Apr 24
00-03UT       2.67         2.33         2.33
03-06UT       2.00         2.00         2.67
06-09UT       2.33         2.00         2.67
09-12UT       2.00         2.00         1.67
12-15UT       2.00         0.67         1.33
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         2.00
18-21UT       2.00         2.67         2.00
21-00UT       2.00         3.00         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected as
the ongoing CH HSS effects wane.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2026

              Apr 22  Apr 23  Apr 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 22-Apr 24 2026

              Apr 22        Apr 23        Apr 24
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts in the next three days.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period
was a C5.3 at 21/0602 UTC from Region 4421 (S09E72, Cao/beta). Region
4419 (N15W37, Eho/beta-gamma) showed minor decay, particularly in its
trailing spots. Regions 4420 (N16E52, Dro/beta-gamma) and 4422 (N09W30,
Cro/beta) were numbered during the period. Region 4420 was numbered and
contributed the remaining C-class flares of the reporting period, due to
its rapid flux emergence.

A large filament lifted off north of center disk, starting at
approximately 20/2350 UTC. The associated slow CME was first visible in
LASCO C2 imagery beginning at approximately 21/0130 UTC and subsequently
in STEREO and GOES CCOR. Modeling suggests that the CME will pass above
Earths orbit, with the potential for very minor entanglement with an
anticipated coronal hole high speed stream around 24 Apr. No other Earth
directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected (75%) to be at low levels, with a slight
chance (10%) for isolated M-class activity, on 22-24 Apr, primarily due
to the flare potential from Region 4420 and limb activity.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a maximum reading of 4,990 pfu at 21/1740 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 22-24 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels on 22-24 Apr.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS influences. Total magnetic
field (Bt) averaged ~5 nT after a max of 8 nT at the very beginning of
the reporting period. The north-south component (Bz) was predominantly
south/negative, with a sustained southward deflection of ~5 nT for the
majority of the reporting period. The wind speed maintained an average
~525 km/s, and Phi was predominantly in a negative orientation (towards
the Sun).

.Forecast...
Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated 22-23 Apr as the
negative polarity CH HSS continues to move from its geoeffective
position, transitioning to elevated conditions on 24 Apr due to the
anticipated arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field went from Quiet to G1 (Minor) storming levels due
to sustained periods of negative Bz during the ongoing -CH HSS
conditions.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected 22-24 Apr, with isolated
active conditions possible, due to diminishing negative polarity HSS
effects and the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity HSS around 24
Apr.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Apr 20     105          18          4
2026 Apr 21     110          15          4
2026 Apr 22     120           8          3
2026 Apr 23     125           5          2
2026 Apr 24     120           8          3
2026 Apr 25     115           8          3
2026 Apr 26     120           5          2
2026 Apr 27     125           5          2
2026 Apr 28     125           5          2
2026 Apr 29     125          20          5
2026 Apr 30     125          18          5
2026 May 01     125          12          4
2026 May 02     125          10          4
2026 May 03     115           8          3
2026 May 04     108           8          3
2026 May 05     105           5          2
2026 May 06     100           5          2
2026 May 07      95          20          5
2026 May 08      90          15          4
2026 May 09      90           8          3
2026 May 10      95           5          2
2026 May 11     100           5          2
2026 May 12     105           5          2
2026 May 13     110           5          2
2026 May 14     110           5          2
2026 May 15     105          25          5
2026 May 16     105          20          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey