Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3638
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 01 0509 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3637
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 23 1045 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 7143 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 28 February follow.
Solar flux 141 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 01 March was 1.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 27 Feb 010
Estimated Ap 28 Feb 010
Predicted Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 018-016-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Active                40/35/15
Minor storm           25/20/05
Moderate storm        05/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 01 Mar - 03 Mar
             Mar 01    Mar 02    Mar 03
00-03UT        3.33      3.33      2.00
03-06UT        4.33      3.67      2.67
06-09UT        4.00      3.00      2.00
09-12UT        3.00      2.67      2.00
12-15UT        2.67      3.00      2.00
15-18UT        2.67      3.00      2.33
18-21UT        3.00      3.33      2.00
21-00UT        3.00      3.00      2.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 01-Mar 03 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 01-Mar 03 2026

             Mar 01       Mar 02       Mar 03
00-03UT       2.67         3.33         2.00
03-06UT       2.67         3.67         2.67
06-09UT       2.33         3.00         2.00
09-12UT       2.00         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       2.67         3.00         2.00
15-18UT       2.67         3.00         2.33
18-21UT       3.00         3.33         2.00
21-00UT       3.00         3.00         2.33

Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming
periods, on 01 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 25 Feb,
followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences on 02 Mar.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 01-Mar 03 2026

              Mar 01  Mar 02  Mar 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 01-Mar 03 2026

              Mar 01        Mar 02        Mar 03
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 03 Mar.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 4380 (S21E42, Dao/beta)
produced a C6.1 flare at 01/0206 UTC, the strongest of the period, as
well as several other C-class lfares. Region 4381 (N07E69, Dao/beta)
continued to produce the majority of the C-flare activity this period,
adding a C5.2 flare at 01/0615 UTC and several C3 and C4 flares. Region
4381 experienced slight growth, mainly in its trailer spots. Region 4380
exhibited slight decay in its leading spots, but grew slightly in
overall size and magnetic complexity. Region 4378 (N16E31, Eho/beta)
lost some of its trailer spots, but remained the largest, most
magnetically complex group on the visible disk. Region 4379 (S17, L=204)
decayed to plage.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 03 Mar.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
7,143 pfu observed at 28/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
01-03 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels through 03 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Solar wind
speeds trended downward towards end of period speeds near 410 km/s,
total magnetic field remained near 4 nT, and the Bz component was mostly
negative, but varied between +/-4 nT. The Phi angle remained in a
negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind conditions are likely through 03 Mar due to
the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 25 Feb, followed
by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
early in the period. An increase to unsettled to active levels is
likely, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, on 01
Mar due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 25 Feb, followed by the
onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences on 02 Mar. Mostly unsettled
levels are expected on 03 Mar under ongoing positive polarity CH HSS
influences.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Feb 23     112          20          5
2026 Feb 24     115          12          4
2026 Feb 25     118          10          3
2026 Feb 26     120           5          2
2026 Feb 27     122           5          2
2026 Feb 28     122           5          2
2026 Mar 01     122           5          2
2026 Mar 02     125           5          2
2026 Mar 03     125           5          2
2026 Mar 04     125           5          2
2026 Mar 05     125          15          4
2026 Mar 06     130          15          4
2026 Mar 07     130           8          3
2026 Mar 08     130           5          2
2026 Mar 09     125           8          3
2026 Mar 10     122          18          5
2026 Mar 11     120           8          3
2026 Mar 12     118          12          4
2026 Mar 13     116          12          4
2026 Mar 14     116          20          5
2026 Mar 15     116          18          4
2026 Mar 16     115          12          4
2026 Mar 17     115          10          3
2026 Mar 18     115          10          3
2026 Mar 19     112          12          4
2026 Mar 20     110          18          5
2026 Mar 21     110          38          6

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.