Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3655
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 24 0500 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3654
Begin Time: 2026 Mar 22 1430 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 8285 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2216
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 24 0420 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2215
Valid From: 2026 Mar 23 1440 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Mar 24 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5297
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 24 0420 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5296
Valid From: 2026 Mar 23 1410 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Mar 24 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5296
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 23 2058 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5295
Valid From: 2026 Mar 23 1410 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Mar 24 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2215
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 23 2058 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2214
Valid From: 2026 Mar 23 1440 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Mar 24 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 23 March follow.
Solar flux 124 and estimated planetary A-index 28.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 24 March was 2.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 22 Mar 075
Estimated Ap 23 Mar 028
Predicted Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 022-012-014

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Active                25/35/40
Minor storm           45/20/25
Moderate storm        25/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 24 Mar - 26 Mar
             Mar 24    Mar 25    Mar 26
00-03UT        4.67      3.00      3.00
03-06UT        4.67      3.67      2.00
06-09UT        4.00      2.67      2.00
09-12UT        3.67      2.67      2.67
12-15UT        3.00      2.00      2.67
15-18UT        2.33      2.00      3.00
18-21UT        2.67      2.67      3.67
21-00UT        3.00      2.67      3.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 24-Mar 26 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 24-Mar 26 2026

             Mar 24       Mar 25       Mar 26
00-03UT       2.67         3.00         3.00
03-06UT       3.67         3.67         2.00
06-09UT       3.33         2.67         2.00
09-12UT       3.67         2.67         2.67
12-15UT       3.00         2.00         2.67
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         3.00
18-21UT       2.67         2.67         3.67
21-00UT       3.67         2.67         3.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected
through 26 Mar.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 24-Mar 26 2026

              Mar 24  Mar 25  Mar 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 24-Mar 26 2026

              Mar 24        Mar 25        Mar 26
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) greater radio
blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, through 26 Mar.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with only a scattering of C1 flares
throughout the reporting period, primarily from Regions 4398 (S17W13,
Bxi/beta) and 4402 (N17E44, Dao/beta). Region 4401 (N25E38,
Dai/beta-gamma) continued to exhibit flux emergence in its intermediary
region, resulting in new trailing and intermediary spots. Regions 4398
and 4400 (S13W52, Dao/beta-delta) also exhibited flux emergence, but
only 4398 gained new spots, with 4400 actually mildly simplifying. The
remaining spot groups were either stable or in decay.

No additional Earth directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on
24-26 Mar.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 8,285 pfu at 23/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was slightly elevated, but well below alert threshold levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels through 25 Mar due to post storming effects, before
returning to normal levels on 26 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to continue near background values.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected diminishing negative polarity CH HSS
influences. Solar wind speed slowly decreased throughout the period from
~675 km/s to ~600 km/s. Total IMF (Bt) averaged between 4-6 nT, Bz
fluctuated between +/-5 nT, spending most of the period in a southern
orientation, and Phi was predominantly in a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced, reflecting
slowly diminishing CH HSS influences through 25 Mar. Late on 26 Mar, the
22 Mar CME is anticipated to pass near Earth, possibly inducing
additional
enhancements in the solar wind environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) levels under waning CME/CH HSS
influences.

.Forecast...
Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are possible on 24
Mar
as negative polarity CH HSS influences persist. Mostly unsettled
conditions are expected, with isolated active periods likely, on 25 Mar
as negative polarity CH HSS influences continue, but gradually diminish.
By late 26 Mar, the aforementioned CME is anticipated to pass near
Earth, likely increasing activity to active levels.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Mar 23     120          34          6
2026 Mar 24     120          14          3
2026 Mar 25     122          12          3
2026 Mar 26     125          12          3
2026 Mar 27     130           8          3
2026 Mar 28     130           5          2
2026 Mar 29     128           8          3
2026 Mar 30     125          15          4
2026 Mar 31     125          10          3
2026 Apr 01     130           5          2
2026 Apr 02     120           5          2
2026 Apr 03     120          18          5
2026 Apr 04     115          24          5
2026 Apr 05     110          10          3
2026 Apr 06     120          15          4
2026 Apr 07     120           8          3
2026 Apr 08     118           7          2
2026 Apr 09     120          25          5
2026 Apr 10     110          40          6
2026 Apr 11     112          20          5
2026 Apr 12     115          12          3
2026 Apr 13     115           8          3
2026 Apr 14     110           7          2
2026 Apr 15     115           5          2
2026 Apr 16     115           4          2
2026 Apr 17     120           7          2
2026 Apr 18     122          48          6

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.