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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3624
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 10 1212 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3623
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 07 1340 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1764 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 10 February follow.
Solar flux 142 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 10 February was 2.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 08 Feb 008
Estimated Ap 09 Feb 009
Predicted Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 008-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 10 Feb - 12 Feb
             Feb 10    Feb 11    Feb 12
00-03UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
03-06UT        2.67      1.67      2.00
06-09UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
09-12UT        1.67      1.00      1.33
12-15UT        1.67      1.33      0.67
15-18UT        0.67      1.33      1.00
18-21UT        1.67      1.00      1.67
21-00UT        2.00      1.67      1.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 10-Feb 12 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 10-Feb 12 2026

             Feb 10       Feb 11       Feb 12
00-03UT       1.00         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       0.67         1.67         2.00
06-09UT       1.00         1.67         1.67
09-12UT       2.67         1.00         1.33
12-15UT       1.67         1.33         0.67
15-18UT       0.67         1.33         1.00
18-21UT       1.67         1.00         1.67
21-00UT       2.00         1.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected over
10-12 Feb.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 10-Feb 12 2026

              Feb 10  Feb 11  Feb 12
S1 or greater   25%     25%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms on 10-12 Feb due to the flare potential and location of Region
4366.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 10-Feb 12 2026

              Feb 10        Feb 11        Feb 12
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, on 10-12 Feb.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest event of the period was
an impulsive C9.2/Sf flare at 09/2302 UTC from Region 4374 (N11E65,
Cko/beta). Region 4366 (N14W78, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced four
C-class flares and remains the most magnetically complex region on the
visible disk. While Region 4371 (S23W29, Hsx/alpha) decreased in extent,
it produced three C-class flares during the period. The other four
numbered regions on the disk remained relatively stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely (65%), with a chance
(25%)for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater), over 10-12 Feb,
primarily due to the eruptive potential of Region 4366.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 1,764 pfu observed at 09/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
10-12 Feb. There is a chance (25%) for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 10-12 Feb due to the eruptive
potential and location of Region 4366.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were mildly disturbed during this period under
negative polarity CH HSS influences and possible glancing impact of the
CME that left the Sun on 03 Feb. Solar wind speeds followed a declining
trend for early in the period, decreasing from about 450 km/s to a
minimum near 375 km/s, before rising steadily back to 450 km/s. Total
magnetic field (Bt) strength remained generally steady around 9 nT. The
North-South component of the magnetic field (Bz) remained primarily
northward throughout the period, but reached a maximum southward
deviation of -7 nT. The Phi angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment near Earth is likely to remain mildly
disturbed for the remainder of 10 Feb, with the influences caused by the
negative polarity CH HSS and glancing CME waning down. Undisturbed solar
wind conditions are likely on Feb 11-12 as there is no transient arrival
anticipated.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled
levels for the remainder of 10 Feb as negative polarity CH HSS
influences and any CME enhancements diminish throughout the day. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 11-12 Feb.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Feb 09     165          15          4
2026 Feb 10     160           8          3
2026 Feb 11     155           5          2
2026 Feb 12     150           5          2
2026 Feb 13     145           5          2
2026 Feb 14     140           5          2
2026 Feb 15     150           5          2
2026 Feb 16     160          15          4
2026 Feb 17     170          15          4
2026 Feb 18     180          15          4
2026 Feb 19     175          15          4
2026 Feb 20     170          15          4
2026 Feb 21     160          15          4
2026 Feb 22     150           8          3
2026 Feb 23     140           8          3
2026 Feb 24     135          20          5
2026 Feb 25     130          20          5
2026 Feb 26     130           8          3
2026 Feb 27     140           5          2
2026 Feb 28     160           5          2
2026 Mar 01     165           5          2
2026 Mar 02     170           5          2
2026 Mar 03     170           5          2
2026 Mar 04     170           5          2
2026 Mar 05     165          15          4
2026 Mar 06     165          15          4
2026 Mar 07     165           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.