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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3492
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 10 1102 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3491
Begin Time: 2025 Jul 09 1425 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1210 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 10 July follow.
Solar flux 129 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 10 July was 1.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 09 Jul 008
Estimated Ap 10 Jul 005
Predicted Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 005-010-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Active                10/25/20
Minor storm           01/10/05
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 11 Jul - 13 Jul
             Jul 11    Jul 12    Jul 13
00-03UT        1.67      2.33      2.33
03-06UT        1.67      2.00      2.00
06-09UT        1.33      2.33      2.33
09-12UT        1.33      2.67      2.00
12-15UT        1.33      2.33      2.00
15-18UT        1.33      2.67      2.00
18-21UT        1.67      2.33      2.00
21-00UT        1.33      2.33      2.00

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 10-Jul 12 2025 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 10-Jul 12 2025

             Jul 10       Jul 11       Jul 12
00-03UT       1.00         1.67         2.33
03-06UT       1.33         1.67         2.00
06-09UT       1.00         1.33         2.33
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         2.67
12-15UT       1.67         1.33         2.33
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         2.67
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         2.33
21-00UT       1.33         1.33         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 10-Jul 12 2025

              Jul 10  Jul 11  Jul 12
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 10-Jul 12 2025

              Jul 10        Jul 11        Jul 12
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 10-12 Jul, primarily due to the
flare potential of Region 4136.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares observed. The
largest flare during the period was a C8.9 from an unnumbered region
beyond the east limb at S13. This region was also responsible for the
majority of the remaining flares alongside Regions 4136 (N19E53,
Dai/beta-gamma) and 4137 (N18W34).

An approximate M2 was observed by Solar Orbiter at 10/1326 UTC just
beyond the east limb, brightening can be seen in the SUVI-94 channel at
this time. A slow moving CME was observed in coronagraph imagery,
modelled and was determined to not have any impact.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 13 Jul, primarily due to the flare
potential of Region 4136.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the
diurnal maxima; GOES-19 reached peak of 3.110 pfu at 10/0520 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate
to high levels 11 Jul. Positive polarity CH HSS is expected to start to
become geoeffective 12-13 Jul; increased wind speeds during this time
will likely suppress the Van Allen belts and reduce electron flux at
geostationary orbit.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels through 13 Jul barring any significant flares from
Region 4137 that is moving into a favorable position.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained at nominal conditions. Total field was
2-5 nT with the Bz component between +/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds were
between 350-400 km/s. The phi angle was variable after 10/0500 UTC.

.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected through 11 Jul. The
co-rotating interacting region associated with a positive polarity CH
HSS is expected to arrive 12 Jul, an enhancement of the solar wind
parameters will follow the arrival and remained enhanced thereafter.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected 11 Jul. Unsettled to active
conditions are likely starting 12 Jul as Earth moves into a geoeffective
position with a positive polarity CH HSS.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Jul 07     115          10          3
2025 Jul 08     113           8          3
2025 Jul 09     111           5          2
2025 Jul 10     110           5          2
2025 Jul 11     110           5          2
2025 Jul 12     105          10          4
2025 Jul 13     105           8          3
2025 Jul 14     110           8          3
2025 Jul 15     115          12          4
2025 Jul 16     120          12          4
2025 Jul 17     125          10          4
2025 Jul 18     125          10          4
2025 Jul 19     125          10          4
2025 Jul 20     125           5          2
2025 Jul 21     120           5          2
2025 Jul 22     120          12          4
2025 Jul 23     120          20          5
2025 Jul 24     120          18          5
2025 Jul 25     120           8          3
2025 Jul 26     120           5          2
2025 Jul 27     125          10          4
2025 Jul 28     125           5          2
2025 Jul 29     125           5          2
2025 Jul 30     125           5          2
2025 Jul 31     125           5          2
2025 Aug 01     120          15          4
2025 Aug 02     120          15          4

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.