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Ovation: South
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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3026
Issue Time: 2020 Feb 28 1621 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2020 Feb 28 1605 UTC
Station: GOES-16
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 28 February follow.
Solar flux 71 and estimated planetary A-index 6.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 29 February was 2.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 27 Feb 004
Estimated Ap 28 Feb 005
Predicted Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar 010-012-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 29 Feb - 02 Mar
             Feb 29    Mar 01    Mar 02
00-03UT        2         3         4
03-06UT        2         4         3
06-09UT        3         3         3
09-12UT        2         2         2
12-15UT        3         2         3
15-18UT        3         2         3
18-21UT        3         3         2
21-00UT        3         3         2


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 29-Mar 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 29-Mar 02 2020

            Feb 29     Mar 01     Mar 02
00-03UT        2          3          4
03-06UT        2          4          3
06-09UT        3          3          3
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        3          2          3
15-18UT        3          2          3
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        3          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels are expected on 01-02 Mar due to CH HSS
effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 29-Mar 02 2020

              Feb 29  Mar 01  Mar 02
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 29-Mar 02 2020

              Feb 29        Mar 01        Mar 02
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels with a spotless visible disk.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 29 Feb and 01-02 Mar.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels with a maximum
flux of 1,195 pfu observed at 28/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach moderate to high
levels on 29 Feb and 01-02 Mar due to HSS influence. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained near background levels through about
28/0630 UTC when an overall increase in wind parameters was observed.
Solar wind speeds gradually increased from about 325 km/s to maximum
speeds near 470 km/s. A steady total field at about 3-4 nT increased to
a maximum of 8 nT while the Bz component indicated variability between
-5 nT to +7 nT. Phi was mostly in a negative sector through 28/0630 UTC
before rotating to a more positive orientation until 28/1830 UTC.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected 29 Feb through 02 Mar as an
equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
29 Mar with unsettled to isolated active levels likely on 01-2 Mar. This
increase in activity is due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2020 Feb 24      71           8          3
2020 Feb 25      71           8          3
2020 Feb 26      71          12          4
2020 Feb 27      71           8          3
2020 Feb 28      71           8          3
2020 Feb 29      71           8          3
2020 Mar 01      71           5          2
2020 Mar 02      71           5          2
2020 Mar 03      71           5          2
2020 Mar 04      71          15          4
2020 Mar 05      71          15          4
2020 Mar 06      71           5          2
2020 Mar 07      71           5          2
2020 Mar 08      71           5          2
2020 Mar 09      71           5          2
2020 Mar 10      71           5          2
2020 Mar 11      71           5          2
2020 Mar 12      71           5          2
2020 Mar 13      71           5          2
2020 Mar 14      71           5          2
2020 Mar 15      71           5          2
2020 Mar 16      71           5          2
2020 Mar 17      71           5          2
2020 Mar 18      71           8          3
2020 Mar 19      71          12          4
2020 Mar 20      71           8          3
2020 Mar 21      71           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.10b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 10th Oct 2019)
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2019 Brendan Davey