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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3668
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 07 0500 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3667
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 03 0920 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 6075 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5313
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 07 0124 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Apr 07 0124 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Apr 07 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 06 April follow.
Solar flux 116 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 07 April was 2.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 05 Apr 012
Estimated Ap 06 Apr 009
Predicted Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 008-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 07 Apr - 09 Apr
             Apr 07    Apr 08    Apr 09
00-03UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
03-06UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
06-09UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
09-12UT        2.00      1.33      1.00
12-15UT        0.67      0.67      0.67
15-18UT        0.67      0.67      1.33
18-21UT        1.67      1.67      1.33
21-00UT        2.67      2.00      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 07-Apr 09 2026 is 3.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 07-Apr 09 2026

             Apr 07       Apr 08       Apr 09
00-03UT       3.33         3.33         3.33
03-06UT       2.00         3.33         3.00
06-09UT       2.00         1.67         1.67
09-12UT       2.67         1.33         1.00
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         0.67
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         1.33
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         1.33
21-00UT       1.33         2.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 07-Apr 09 2026

              Apr 07  Apr 08  Apr 09
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: There is less than a slight chance for the greater than 10
MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels 07-09
Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 07-Apr 09 2026

              Apr 07        Apr 08        Apr 09
R1-R2           30%           30%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events 07-09 Apr.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels during the reporting period with
C-class flaring limited to events from Region 4404 (N14W79, Hsx/alpha)
as it approached the western limb. There are currently six numbered
sunspot groups on the visible disk. Region 4411 (S06, L=111) decayed to
plage, though a new unnumbered region emerged to the east of its former
location. Region 4409 (N01W58, Dai/beta-gamma) underwent a period of
structural consolidation; while the total number of individual spots
decreased as they merged into larger cores, the group continued to
exhibit persistent flux emergence and developed a mixed-polarity gamma
configuration. Similarly, Region 4408 (N08W59, Dsi/beta-gamma)
experienced the rapid emergence of new leading spots, subsequently
developing its own gamma configuration. The remaining regions on the
disk were either stable or in a state of gradual decline.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 07-09 Apr, with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance
for an X-class (R3/Strong or greater) flares, driven primarily by the
flare potential of Region 4409.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak
flux of 6,075 pfu at 06/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels 07-09 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to remain at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the transition out of a waning negative
polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds continued to decline from a peak of ~580
km/s to near 400 km/s by the end of the period. A Sector Boundary
Crossing was observed as the phi angle shifted from a a predominantly
negative (towards) orientation to a more variable but predominantly
positive (away) orientation. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged around 4
nT while the North-South (Bz) component reached a maximum southward
deflection of -3 nT before remaining mostly northward later in the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain somewhat enhanced
through 07 Apr before returning to nominal, quiet-wind state conditions
on 08-09 Apr.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under waning
negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the remainder of 07 Apr, while mostly quiet levels with isolated
unsettled periods are forecasted for 08-09 Apr as the solar wind
environment stabilizes at nominal levels.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Apr 06     118          10          3
2026 Apr 07     115           8          3
2026 Apr 08     113           5          2
2026 Apr 09     111           5          2
2026 Apr 10     108          12          4
2026 Apr 11     106          18          5
2026 Apr 12     105          10          4
2026 Apr 13     108           8          3
2026 Apr 14     110           7          2
2026 Apr 15     115           5          2
2026 Apr 16     115           4          2
2026 Apr 17     120           7          2
2026 Apr 18     122          48          6
2026 Apr 19     124          22          5
2026 Apr 20     130          12          4
2026 Apr 21     140          12          4
2026 Apr 22     150           8          3
2026 Apr 23     155           5          2
2026 Apr 24     160           8          3
2026 Apr 25     155          12          4
2026 Apr 26     150          10          3
2026 Apr 27     145           5          2
2026 Apr 28     140           5          2
2026 Apr 29     140          20          5
2026 Apr 30     135          18          5
2026 May 01     130          12          4
2026 May 02     120           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey