Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 816
Issue Time: 2024 Jul 27 0604 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Jul 27 0537 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Jul 27 0539 UTC
End Time: 2024 Jul 27 0543 UTC
Duration: 6 minutes
Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 176 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1328
Issue Time: 2024 Jul 27 0600 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Jul 27 0434 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 251 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1327
Issue Time: 2024 Jul 27 0500 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Jul 27 0433 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1046 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1896
Issue Time: 2024 Jul 26 1559 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Jul 26 1559 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Jul 26 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2459
Issue Time: 2024 Jul 26 1455 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4648
Issue Time: 2024 Jul 26 1434 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Jul 26 1434 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Jul 26 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 26 July follow.
Solar flux 176 and estimated planetary A-index 23.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 27 July was 2.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 25 Jul 009
Estimated Ap 26 Jul 026
Predicted Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 018-008-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Active                30/25/35
Minor storm           35/05/25
Moderate storm        10/01/05
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 27 Jul - 29 Jul
             Jul 27    Jul 28    Jul 29
00-03UT        3.67      2.67      3.00
03-06UT        4.00      2.33      2.67
06-09UT        4.67      2.00      2.00
09-12UT        3.33      2.00      2.67
12-15UT        2.33      1.67      2.67
15-18UT        2.33      2.00      2.00
18-21UT        2.00      2.00      2.67
21-00UT        2.33      2.33      3.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 27-Jul 29 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 27-Jul 29 2024

             Jul 27       Jul 28       Jul 29
00-03UT       3.67         2.67         3.00
03-06UT       4.00         2.33         2.67
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    2.00         2.00
09-12UT       3.33         2.00         2.67
12-15UT       2.33         1.67         2.67
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         2.00
18-21UT       2.00         2.00         2.67
21-00UT       2.33         2.33         3.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 27 Jul due to CH HSS and CME
influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 27-Jul 29 2024

              Jul 27  Jul 28  Jul 29
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms over 27-29
Jul.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 22 2024 0404 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 27-Jul 29 2024

              Jul 27        Jul 28        Jul 29
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater, over 27-29 Jul.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3761 (S09W86,
Dao/beta-gamma) exhibited signs of decay in its trailing spots but
produced an M1.7/Sf flare at 26/0442 UTC. Region 3762 (S12W20,
Fac/beta-gamma-delta) grew in overall size while maintaining a weak
delta signature. Regions 3768 (S16W00, Axx/alpha) and 3769 (N22E78,
Hsx/alpha) were numbered this period, but were otherwise unremarkable.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class
flares through 29 Jul.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to near background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels through 29 Jul. A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar
radiation event will persist through 29 Jul as the complex of spots
consisting of ARs 3751 and 3761 rotate around the western limb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced early this period from what was
likely CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached 17 nT and the Bz
component underwent a few sustained southward deflections early in the
day. Solar wind speeds peaked at approximately 600 km/s before settling
near 500 km/s. Phi was positive outside of ~26/0400-26/0945 UTC, where
it was in a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Current conditions are likely to continue into 27 Jul with a further
enhancement likely on 27 Jul due to glancing CME influences from the
C4.5 flare events from AR 3751 on 23 Jul. A gradual wane to a more
ambient-like environment is anticipated for 28 Jul. Another transient
feature is possible on 29 Jul due to a broad area of dimming near center
disk early on 25 Jul, however, confidence is low.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CH HSS
effects.

.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely to occur on 27 Jul with
continued CH HSS influences in addition to possible glancing effects
from the 23 Jul CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail
on 28 Jul and any lingering CH HSS/CME effects are expected to subside.
Quiet to active conditions are possible on 29 Jul due to the possible
arrival of a transient associated with dimming near center disk early on
25 Jul.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Jul 22     195           5          2
2024 Jul 23     190           5          2
2024 Jul 24     190           5          2
2024 Jul 25     190           5          2
2024 Jul 26     180           5          2
2024 Jul 27     180           5          2
2024 Jul 28     175           5          2
2024 Jul 29     170           5          2
2024 Jul 30     170           5          2
2024 Jul 31     170           5          2
2024 Aug 01     165           5          2
2024 Aug 02     165           5          2
2024 Aug 03     165           5          2
2024 Aug 04     170           5          2
2024 Aug 05     175           5          2
2024 Aug 06     180           5          2
2024 Aug 07     185           5          2
2024 Aug 08     185           5          2
2024 Aug 09     190           5          2
2024 Aug 10     190           5          2
2024 Aug 11     190           5          2
2024 Aug 12     195           5          2
2024 Aug 13     195           5          2
2024 Aug 14     190           5          2
2024 Aug 15     190           5          2
2024 Aug 16     190           5          2
2024 Aug 17     190           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.