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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1476
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 23 0914 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 23 0859 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 722 km/s

Comment: Report from San Vito
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 904
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 23 0859 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 23 0844 UTC
Maximum Time: 2026 Apr 23 0844 UTC
End Time: 2026 Apr 23 0844 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 130 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 116 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 706
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 23 0535 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 23 0513 UTC

Comment: Report from San Vito
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1475
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 23 0510 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 23 0450 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1033 km/s

Comment: Report from San Vito
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3683
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 23 0459 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3682
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 19 1920 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4922 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 22 April follow.
Solar flux 116 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 23 April was 2.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 21 Apr 019
Estimated Ap 22 Apr 005
Predicted Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 008-008-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 23 Apr - 25 Apr
             Apr 23    Apr 24    Apr 25
00-03UT        2.33      2.33      2.33
03-06UT        2.00      2.67      2.67
06-09UT        2.00      2.67      2.33
09-12UT        2.00      1.67      2.00
12-15UT        0.67      1.33      1.33
15-18UT        2.00      2.00      1.67
18-21UT        2.67      2.00      2.00
21-00UT        3.00      2.33      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 23-Apr 25 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 23-Apr 25 2026

             Apr 23       Apr 24       Apr 25
00-03UT       2.33         2.33         2.33
03-06UT       2.00         2.67         2.67
06-09UT       2.00         2.67         2.33
09-12UT       2.00         1.67         2.00
12-15UT       0.67         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         1.67
18-21UT       2.67         2.00         2.00
21-00UT       3.00         2.33         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 23-Apr 25 2026

              Apr 23  Apr 24  Apr 25
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 23-Apr 25 2026

              Apr 23        Apr 24        Apr 25
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
will persist through 25 April primarily due to the flare potential
exhibited by Region 4420.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels, with the largest flare of the
reporting period being a C3.7/sf at 22/1714 UTC from Region 4420
(N16E38, Dai/beta-gamma), which produced all of the periods flaring
activity due to its continual flux emergence and growth in its trailing
and intermediary areas. Region 4419 (N15W50, Eao/beta) showed minor
decay in its trailing spots . Regions 4421 (S10E58, Dso/beta) and 4422
(N09W44, Cao/beta) were largely stable.

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected (75%) to be at low levels, with a slight
chance (10%) for isolated M-class activity, on 23-25 Apr, primarily due
to the flare potential from Region 4420 and limb activity.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a maximum reading of 4,920 pfu at 22/1605 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 23-25 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels on 22-24 Apr.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS influences. Total magnetic
field (Bt) averaged ~5 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) variable
between +/- 5 nT. The wind speed had a very gradual downward trend,
beginning the reporting period with an average of 525 km/s and ending
with an average range of 450-460 km/s. While phi was predominantly
negative (towards the Sun), it frequently fluctuated between the
positive and negative sectors.

.Forecast...
Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are anticipated 23-25 Apr as the
negative polarity CH HSS continues to move from its geoeffective
position, transitioning to elevated conditions on 24 Apr due to the
anticipated arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected 23-25 Apr, with isolated
active conditions possible, due to diminishing negative polarity HSS
effects and the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity HSS around 24
Apr.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Apr 20     105          18          4
2026 Apr 21     110          15          4
2026 Apr 22     120           8          3
2026 Apr 23     125           5          2
2026 Apr 24     120           8          3
2026 Apr 25     115           8          3
2026 Apr 26     120           5          2
2026 Apr 27     125           5          2
2026 Apr 28     125           5          2
2026 Apr 29     125          20          5
2026 Apr 30     125          18          5
2026 May 01     125          12          4
2026 May 02     125          10          4
2026 May 03     115           8          3
2026 May 04     108           8          3
2026 May 05     105           5          2
2026 May 06     100           5          2
2026 May 07      95          20          5
2026 May 08      90          15          4
2026 May 09      90           8          3
2026 May 10      95           5          2
2026 May 11     100           5          2
2026 May 12     105           5          2
2026 May 13     110           5          2
2026 May 14     110           5          2
2026 May 15     105          25          5
2026 May 16     105          20          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey