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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 273
Issue Time: 2026 May 13 0907 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 14:  None (Below G1)   May 15:  G2 (Moderate)   May 16:  G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 May follow.
Solar flux 111 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 13 May was 2.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 11 May 005
Estimated Ap 12 May 008
Predicted Ap 13 May-15 May 015-010-025

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Active                40/20/10
Minor storm           30/10/40
Moderate storm        10/01/30
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/15

NOAA Kp index forecast 13 May - 15 May
             May 13    May 14    May 15
00-03UT        3.33      3.00      3.67
03-06UT        3.33      3.00      4.67
06-09UT        2.00      2.33      4.00
09-12UT        3.00      2.00      3.67
12-15UT        3.00      1.67      3.67
15-18UT        2.00      2.00      3.67
18-21UT        3.67      2.67      4.00
21-00UT        3.33      2.67      3.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 13-May 15 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 13-May 15 2026

             May 13       May 14       May 15
00-03UT       1.00         3.33         4.00
03-06UT       1.67         3.00         5.67 (G2)
06-09UT       1.67         2.33         4.00
09-12UT       1.67         2.00         3.67
12-15UT       3.00         1.67         3.67
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         3.67
18-21UT       3.67         2.67         4.00
21-00UT       3.33         3.67         3.67

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely for 15 May due to
the negative polatiry CH HSS CIR.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 13-May 15 2026

              May 13  May 14  May 15
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 13 May.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 13-May 15 2026

              May 13        May 14        May 15
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 15 May.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels, with minor C-class flares from
Regions 4432 (N14W90, Eko/beta-gamma) - that is rotating off the West
limb, 4433 (S16W60, Hrx/alpha) and 4436 (N18E20, Dai/beta). Region 4436
was responsible for the largest flare of the period: a C2.3 peaked at
13/0640 UTC. Two new regions were numbered during the past 24 hours:
Region 4437 (N15W75, Axx/alpha) and 4438 (N19W23, Bxo/beta), resulting
in a total of 5 numbered regions on the visible disk.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 15 May. A
slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong) flares still exists through the
end of the 13 May UTC-day due to West-limb presence of Region 4432.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels through 15 May. There is a slight chance for a S1 proton event
until the end of the 13 May UTC-day, and no proton events above the S1
threshold are expected on 14-15 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters near Earth suggested the anticipated glancing
influence of the 10 May CME event: the total magnetic field strength
slowly increased from about 5 to 8 nT during the day, jumping quickly
towards 15 nT after 13/1100 UTC. The speeds and densities also showed
enhancements during the period, with maximum speeds of 425 km/s after
13/1100 UTC. The north-south Bz component oscillated between -6/6 nT
most of the day, reaching as north as 13 nT at the end of the period.
Phi angle was predominantly positive until about 13/1100 UTC, when
became negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue slightly disturbed
through 14 May, as the glancing influence from the 10
May CME wanes and a positive polarity CH HSS remains geoeffective. On 15
May, a CIR associated with a negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated to
arrive near Earth, likely resulting in more disturbed solar wind
condition.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active conditions on 13-14
May, due to the glancing influences of the 10 May CME event and/or
effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. A G2 (Moderate) storming
conditions are likely on 15 May due to the anticipated arrival of a
negative polarity CH HSS near Earth.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 11     128           8          3
2026 May 12     128           5          2
2026 May 13     122          10          3
2026 May 14     130           5          2
2026 May 15     125          25          5
2026 May 16     125          20          5
2026 May 17     120          18          5
2026 May 18     122          15          4
2026 May 19     130           5          2
2026 May 20     130           5          2
2026 May 21     130           8          3
2026 May 22     120          10          3
2026 May 23     125          12          4
2026 May 24     125           5          2
2026 May 25     125           5          2
2026 May 26     130           5          2
2026 May 27     135          12          4
2026 May 28     135          10          3
2026 May 29     130           8          3
2026 May 30     125           8          3
2026 May 31     122           8          3
2026 Jun 01     118           5          2
2026 Jun 02     115           5          2
2026 Jun 03     120           5          2
2026 Jun 04     120          12          4
2026 Jun 05     120           5          2
2026 Jun 06     120           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey