Alerts:
none
Solar-terrestrial indices for 04 February follow.
Solar flux 139 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 04 February was 0.67.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 03 Feb 009
Estimated Ap 04 Feb 008
Predicted Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005-010-015
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Active 10/25/40
Minor storm 01/05/15
Moderate storm 01/01/05
Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 05 Feb - 07 Feb
Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb 07
00-03UT 1.67 1.67 4.00
03-06UT 1.33 1.33 3.67
06-09UT 1.33 1.33 3.00
09-12UT 1.33 1.67 2.67
12-15UT 1.33 2.33 2.33
15-18UT 1.33 2.67 2.33
18-21UT 1.67 3.00 2.67
21-00UT 1.67 3.33 2.67
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 04-Feb 06 2023 is 3.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 04-Feb 06 2023
Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb 06
00-03UT 2.67 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 3.00 1.33 1.33
06-09UT 1.00 1.33 1.33
09-12UT 0.67 1.33 1.67
12-15UT 1.67 1.33 2.33
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 2.67
18-21UT 1.67 1.67 3.00
21-00UT 2.67 1.67 3.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 04-Feb 06 2023
Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb 06
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 04-Feb 06 2023
Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb 06
R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 3207 (S13E17, Cai/beta) and new Region
3211 (S16W22, Bxo/beta) were responsible for the majority of the low
level C-class activity. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3209
(N18E48, Dro/beta), 3210 (S15W12, Cro/beta), and 3211. The rest of the
spotted regions were either stable or in decay.
An 8 degree filament centered near N25W10 began erupting at 03/0844 UTC
in SUVI 304 imagery. A possible associated CME was observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery off the NW beginning at 03/1036 UTC. The CME is
currently being remodeled.
Another filament eruption that occurred in the SE near S15E50 at 04/0040
UTC had a likely associated CME off the E limb in C2 imagery beginning
at 04/0125 UTC. Modelling is currently in progress.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 04-06 Feb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 04-06 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced early in the period with
total field reaching 11 nT and the Bz component near -8 nT. By 03/1800
UTC, total field began to decrease to around 5-7 nT. Solar wind speed
decreased from approximately 370 km/s to near 300 km/s. Phi angle became
variable after 03/1947 UTC.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels on
04-05 Feb. Late on 06 Feb, parameters are expected to increase due to
negative polarity CH HSS influence.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are expected on 04-05 Feb followed by quiet to
unsettled levels on 06 Feb due to CH HSS influence.
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2023 Jan 30 140 5 2
2023 Jan 31 140 5 2
2023 Feb 01 135 5 2
2023 Feb 02 135 12 4
2023 Feb 03 135 12 4
2023 Feb 04 135 8 3
2023 Feb 05 135 5 2
2023 Feb 06 140 5 2
2023 Feb 07 145 12 4
2023 Feb 08 150 12 4
2023 Feb 09 150 15 4
2023 Feb 10 155 12 4
2023 Feb 11 155 5 2
2023 Feb 12 155 8 3
2023 Feb 13 155 8 3
2023 Feb 14 150 5 2
2023 Feb 15 150 5 2
2023 Feb 16 145 5 2
2023 Feb 17 145 5 2
2023 Feb 18 140 8 3
2023 Feb 19 140 7 2
2023 Feb 20 135 5 2
2023 Feb 21 130 5 2
2023 Feb 22 130 10 3
2023 Feb 23 130 10 3
2023 Feb 24 125 10 3
2023 Feb 25 125 5 2
v4.16b
v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.
v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).
Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast