Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4596
Issue Time: 2024 Apr 26 2300 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4595
Valid From: 2024 Apr 26 0500 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Apr 27 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1571
Issue Time: 2024 Apr 26 1651 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1868
Issue Time: 2024 Apr 26 1648 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Apr 26 1646 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Apr 26 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2441
Issue Time: 2024 Apr 26 1459 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4595
Issue Time: 2024 Apr 26 1406 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4594
Valid From: 2024 Apr 26 0500 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Apr 26 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Solar-terrestrial indices for 26 April follow.
Solar flux 153 and estimated planetary A-index 19.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 27 April was 3.00.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 25 Apr 003
Estimated Ap 26 Apr 018
Predicted Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 018-015-010
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
Active 35/35/25
Minor storm 25/20/10
Moderate storm 10/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 27 Apr - 29 Apr
Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
00-03UT 3.67 3.67 2.67
03-06UT 3.00 3.33 2.00
06-09UT 3.00 3.33 2.33
09-12UT 3.00 3.00 2.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.33
15-18UT 3.33 3.33 2.33
18-21UT 3.33 2.00 2.33
21-00UT 3.67 2.00 2.33
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 27-Apr 29 2024
Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
00-03UT 3.67 3.67 2.67
03-06UT 3.00 3.33 2.00
06-09UT 3.00 3.33 2.33
09-12UT 4.00 3.00 2.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.33
15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.33
18-21UT 3.00 2.00 2.33
21-00UT 3.67 2.00 2.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024
Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
S1 or greater 15% 5% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms on 27 Apr
due to the location and flare potential of multiple active regions.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024
Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
R1-R2 75% 55% 35%
R3 or greater 15% 5% 5%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
slight chance for an R3 (Strong) event, on 27 Apr. R1-R2 events are
likely on 28 Apr and there is a chance for R1-R2 events on 29 Apr.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity declined to low levels. Regions 3638 (S18, L=231), 3639
(N30W90, Axx/alpha) and 3647 (S13, L=217) produced C-class flare
activity during the period, the largest a C6.6 at 26/0636 UTC from
Region 3639. Region 3654 (S08W08, Eai/beta-gamma) remained the largest
region on the disk, but was quiet. The region did indicate some slight
area decay. Minor development was observed in Region 3658 (S23W60,
Dro/beta). The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.
.Forecast...
Moderate levels of solar activity are expected on 27 Apr, with
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a slight chance for
an X-class flare (R3/Strong). Solar activity is expected to be low to
moderate with M-class flare activity likely on 28 Apr decreasing to a
chance on 29 Apr as the cluster of complex regions rotate around the SW
limb.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels,
while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background
levels.
.Forecast...
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) storm levels on 27 Apr due to the flare potential
and location of multiple active regions. The 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to be at background levels on 28-29 Apr. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 27-29
Apr.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions became weakly enhanced at around 26/0018 UTC.
Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 13 nT at 26/1510 UTC,
while the Bz component was sustained southward most of the period, by as
much as -11 nT 26/1250 UTC. Solar wind speed peaked at 387 km/s at
26/0116 UTC and slowly decreased to low speeds near 305 km/s near the
end of the period. The phi angle was predominately negative through
about 26/1500 UTC when the orientation switched to positive.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 27-29 Apr due to CH HSS
influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs
that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels on 27-28 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Apr, due to the
anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient
influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A
chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 27-28 Apr should these
features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz.
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Apr 22 215 10 4
2024 Apr 23 215 15 4
2024 Apr 24 200 10 4
2024 Apr 25 190 12 3
2024 Apr 26 170 15 4
2024 Apr 27 170 15 4
2024 Apr 28 165 12 3
2024 Apr 29 160 8 3
2024 Apr 30 155 7 2
2024 May 01 155 10 3
2024 May 02 160 10 3
2024 May 03 160 10 3
2024 May 04 160 5 2
2024 May 05 160 8 3
2024 May 06 160 8 3
2024 May 07 165 8 3
2024 May 08 170 5 2
2024 May 09 180 5 2
2024 May 10 185 5 2
2024 May 11 190 5 2
2024 May 12 195 5 2
2024 May 13 200 5 2
2024 May 14 210 5 2
2024 May 15 215 5 2
2024 May 16 215 5 2
2024 May 17 212 5 2
2024 May 18 212 5 2
v4.16b
v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.
v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).
Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast