Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
none

Solar-terrestrial indices for 14 May follow.
Solar flux 106 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 15 May was 3.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 13 May 010
Estimated Ap 14 May 008
Predicted Ap 15 May-17 May 030-024-019

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           35/35/40
Moderate storm        40/30/20
Strong-Extreme storm  15/10/10

NOAA Kp index forecast 15 May - 17 May
             May 15    May 16    May 17
00-03UT        4.00      4.33      3.00
03-06UT        5.67      5.00      4.67
06-09UT        4.00      3.67      3.33
09-12UT        3.67      3.33      3.00
12-15UT        3.67      3.33      3.00
15-18UT        3.67      3.33      3.67
18-21UT        4.00      3.33      3.33
21-00UT        3.67      3.33      2.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 15-May 17 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 15-May 17 2026

             May 15       May 16       May 17
00-03UT       4.00         4.33         3.00
03-06UT       5.67 (G2)    5.00 (G1)    4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       4.00         3.67         3.33
09-12UT       3.67         3.33         3.00
12-15UT       3.67         3.33         3.00
15-18UT       3.67         3.33         3.67
18-21UT       4.00         3.33         3.33
21-00UT       3.67         3.33         2.67

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected
through 17 May due to the anticipated arrival of a negative polarity
high speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 15-May 17 2026

              May 15  May 16  May 17
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 15-May 17 2026

              May 15        May 16        May 17
R1-R2           40%           30%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
15-16 May, decreasing to a slight chance on 17 May.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels, with four active regions on disk
and only C-class level activity. Region 4435 (N22W66, Dri/beta-gamma)
was responsible for the most of the C-class flares, including the
largest event: a C5.5/Sf peaking at 14/0642 UTC. Region 4436 (N18E02,
Cao/beta) was stable this period and produced a C5.1 flare at 14/1840
UTC. Regions 4435 and 4438 (N20W44, Dao/beta) showed significant growth
in the later half of the reporting period.

An active filament was observed near N40W45 at approximately 14/1330
UTC. However, no discernable ejecta has been observed in coronagraph
imagery at the time of this summary.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain predominately at low levels with a
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 16 May,
decreasing to a slight chance on 17 May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
levels through 16 May, potentially reaching high levels on 17 May. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to stay at background levels
through 17 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters reflected the waning effects of a positive
polarity CH HSS. The total magnetic field strength decreased from 7 nT
to 5 nT levels, with a minimum of 2 nT at 14/2149 UTC. The speeds also
slowly dropped from about 450 km/s to a minimum of 375 km/s before
starting to slowly accelerate again. The north-south Bz component
reduced the amplitude of its oscillation to +- 5 nT, though it spent the
majority of the reporting period oriented northward. The Phi angle
was predominantly positive until 14/1948 UTC, when it flipped negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced from 15-17 May due to
negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period.

.Forecast...
G2 (Moderate) storming conditions are likely on 15 May due to the
anticipated impact of a CIR associated with a negative polarity CH HSS.
Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely to prevail on 16-17 May due
to lingering CH HSS influences.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 May 11     128           8          3
2026 May 12     128           5          2
2026 May 13     122          10          3
2026 May 14     130           5          2
2026 May 15     125          25          5
2026 May 16     125          20          5
2026 May 17     120          18          5
2026 May 18     122          15          4
2026 May 19     130           5          2
2026 May 20     130           5          2
2026 May 21     130           8          3
2026 May 22     120          10          3
2026 May 23     125          12          4
2026 May 24     125           5          2
2026 May 25     125           5          2
2026 May 26     130           5          2
2026 May 27     135          12          4
2026 May 28     135          10          3
2026 May 29     130           8          3
2026 May 30     125           8          3
2026 May 31     122           8          3
2026 Jun 01     118           5          2
2026 Jun 02     115           5          2
2026 Jun 03     120           5          2
2026 Jun 04     120          12          4
2026 Jun 05     120           5          2
2026 Jun 06     120           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.