Presets:
close
Ovation: South
North
Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3707
Issue Time: 2026 Jun 29 0502 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3706
Begin Time: 2026 Jun 26 1345 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2637 pfu


Solar-terrestrial indices for 29 June follow.
Solar flux 195 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 29 June was 0.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 27 Jun 007
Estimated Ap 28 Jun 010
Predicted Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 010-025-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Active                20/39/35
Minor storm           30/35/25
Moderate storm        20/25/15
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 29 Jun - 01 Jul
             Jun 29    Jun 30    Jul 01
00-03UT        1.67      4.67      2.67
03-06UT        1.33      5.00      2.67
06-09UT        1.33      4.00      2.33
09-12UT        1.33      4.00      2.33
12-15UT        1.33      3.67      2.33
15-18UT        1.33      3.33      2.33
18-21UT        1.67      3.00      2.00
21-00UT        4.67      1.67      4.33


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 29-Jul 01 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 29-Jul 01 2026

             Jun 29       Jun 30       Jul 01
00-03UT       1.00         4.67 (G1)    2.00
03-06UT       1.00         5.00 (G1)    1.67
06-09UT       0.33         4.00         1.67
09-12UT       1.33         4.00         1.67
12-15UT       1.33         3.67         2.00
15-18UT       1.33         3.33         2.33
18-21UT       1.67         3.00         3.67
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    1.67         4.33

Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely, with a
slight chance for G2 (Moderate) levels by early 30 Jun, due to the
potential arrival of the 26 Jun CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2026

              Jun 29  Jun 30  Jul 01
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2026

              Jun 29        Jun 30        Jul 01
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: Isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are
likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong or greater) events,
primarily due to the potential of Regions 4475 and 4479.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Despite showing decay and weakening
throughout the period, Region 4475 (S07W43, Dai/beta-gamma) produced a
C9.5 at 28/2117 UTC (the largest flare of the period), as well as a C3.0
flare at 29/0250 UTC. Region 4478 (S05E01, Fki/beta-gamma-delta)
maintained its weak delta configuration as it observed minor decay and
separation between its leading spots and trailing spots. this region
only yielded a C4.1 flare at 29/0340 UTC. Region 4479 (N15W05,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited significant development, gaining a delta
configuration and multiple intermediate spots, and was the primary
contributor to the overall flare activity. The largest events from this
region included: a C8.7 at 28/2159 UTC, a C6.5/Sf at 29/0758 UTC, and a
C8.1/Sf at 29/0828 UTC. This region added multiple low and mid level
C-class flares as well. The other regions on the visible disk continued
to decay and were inactive.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
29-30 Jun and 01 Jul. Isolated M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are
likely, with a slight chance for X-flares (R3/Strong or greater),
primarily due to the potential of Regions 4475 and 4479.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, observing a
maximum flux of 2,627 pfu at 28/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain elevated to
moderate to high levels over 29-30 Jun and 01 Jul. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 01
Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters returned to near background levels. Total magnetic
field strength averaged around 4 nT, the Bz component experienced no
significant southward deflections, and solar wind speeds decreased to
settled under 400 km/s by the end of the period. Phi remained mostly in
a negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain near background levels
through most of 29 Jun. Enhanced conditions are anticipated to return by
late 29 Jun to midday on 30 Jun with the predicted arrival of the CME
that left the Sun late on 26 Jun. Additional enhancements are again
likely on 01 Jul as the CME from 27 Jun is forecast to reach Earth.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for most of 29 Jun. Unsettled to
active levels are then expected, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm
conditions likely, and a slight chance for G2 (Moderate) levels by early
30 Jun, due to the potential arrival of the 26 Jun CME. Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected on 01 Jul.
There is also a chance for isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming on 01
Jul with the anticipated arrival of the CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun,
though confidence is low with this forecast.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Jun 29     175          10          5
2026 Jun 30     180          25          5
2026 Jul 01     175          12          4
2026 Jul 02     170           8          3
2026 Jul 03     175           5          2
2026 Jul 04     170           5          2
2026 Jul 05     160           5          2
2026 Jul 06     160           5          2
2026 Jul 07     155           5          2
2026 Jul 08     155          12          4
2026 Jul 09     150          12          4
2026 Jul 10     140           8          3
2026 Jul 11     140           5          2
2026 Jul 12     135           5          2
2026 Jul 13     130           5          2
2026 Jul 14     135           5          2
2026 Jul 15     140           5          2
2026 Jul 16     140          10          3
2026 Jul 17     145           8          3
2026 Jul 18     150           5          2
2026 Jul 19     145           5          2
2026 Jul 20     145           5          2
2026 Jul 21     145           5          2
2026 Jul 22     150          15          5
2026 Jul 23     155          12          4
2026 Jul 24     155           8          3
2026 Jul 25     155           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey