Presets:
close
Ovation: South
North
Weather: TAS
Presets: Presets

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1195
Issue Time: 2023 Jun 07 0944 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Jun 07 0637 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 543 km/s
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 06 June follow.
Solar flux 172 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 07 June was 1.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 05 Jun 005
Estimated Ap 06 Jun 007
Predicted Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 005-012-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Active                15/35/20
Minor storm           01/15/10
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 07 Jun - 09 Jun
             Jun 07    Jun 08    Jun 09
00-03UT        1.67      2.00      2.67
03-06UT        1.67      2.00      3.00
06-09UT        1.33      1.00      2.00
09-12UT        1.33      2.00      2.00
12-15UT        1.33      3.00      1.33
15-18UT        1.33      4.00      1.33
18-21UT        1.33      3.00      1.67
21-00UT        1.67      3.00      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 07-Jun 09 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 07-Jun 09 2023

             Jun 07       Jun 08       Jun 09
00-03UT       0.67         2.00         2.67
03-06UT       1.00         2.00         3.00
06-09UT       1.00         1.00         2.00
09-12UT       1.67         2.00         2.00
12-15UT       1.33         3.00         1.33
15-18UT       1.33         4.00         1.33
18-21UT       1.33         3.00         1.67
21-00UT       1.67         3.00         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 07-Jun 09 2023

              Jun 07  Jun 08  Jun 09
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms all three days primarily due to the flare potential
from Region 3327.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 07 2023 1146 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 07-Jun 09 2023

              Jun 07        Jun 08        Jun 09
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater blackouts all three days
primarily due to the flare potential from Region 3327.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M4.7 flare from Region
3327 (S14E34, Dki/beta-gamma-delta) at 07/1146 UTC. The most interesting
regions were 3323 (S08W20, Eki/beta-gamma) and 3327. Region 3323
underwent notable decay, but maintained its mixed polarity signature.
Region 3327 spread out further east-west and developed a delta
configuration in the trailing spot field. The region was also the
primary source of occasional C-class flares, to include a C7.1 at
07/0645 UTC which had an associated Type II sweep (543 km/s) and CME off
the SE. This event is being analyzed at the time of this writing. No
other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance of an X-class flare
(R3-Strong) through 09 Jun.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
levels through 09 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to be at background levels. There is a slight chance of a S1
(Minor) event all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near background levels. Total field strength
was at 5 nT and Bz briefly reached -5 nT but was otherwise in a neutral
or northward orientation. Wind speeds decreased to near 325 km/s. The
phi angle was predominately positive.

.Forecast...
Ambient conditions are most likely for 07 Jun. The periphery of the CME
from 04 Jun is forecast to affect Earth on 08 Jun, with effects
lingering into 09 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are anticipated on 07 Jun. Unsettled to active
levels are forecast on 08-09 Jun with the 04 Jun CME proximity.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2023 Jun 05     160          12          3
2023 Jun 06     160           8          3
2023 Jun 07     160           5          2
2023 Jun 08     155           5          2
2023 Jun 09     150           5          2
2023 Jun 10     145           5          2
2023 Jun 11     140          10          3
2023 Jun 12     135          12          4
2023 Jun 13     140           8          3
2023 Jun 14     143           5          2
2023 Jun 15     145           5          2
2023 Jun 16     150           5          2
2023 Jun 17     155           5          2
2023 Jun 18     155          22          5
2023 Jun 19     155          15          4
2023 Jun 20     155          12          4
2023 Jun 21     160          10          3
2023 Jun 22     165           5          2
2023 Jun 23     170           5          2
2023 Jun 24     170           5          2
2023 Jun 25     170           5          2
2023 Jun 26     168           5          2
2023 Jun 27     165          10          3
2023 Jun 28     162          12          4
2023 Jun 29     160           5          2
2023 Jun 30     160           5          2
2023 Jul 01     160           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey