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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3630
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 19 1206 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3629
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 16 1635 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3801 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5263
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 19 0855 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5262
Valid From: 2026 Feb 19 0205 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Feb 19 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5262
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 19 0205 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Feb 19 0205 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Feb 19 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 19 February follow.
Solar flux 116 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 20 February was 1.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 18 Feb 010
Estimated Ap 19 Feb 014
Predicted Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 010-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           10/01/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 20 Feb - 22 Feb
             Feb 20    Feb 21    Feb 22
00-03UT        3.00      2.33      1.67
03-06UT        3.00      1.67      1.33
06-09UT        2.33      1.33      1.33
09-12UT        1.33      0.67      1.33
12-15UT        1.33      1.00      1.67
15-18UT        1.67      0.67      1.33
18-21UT        2.00      1.33      1.33
21-00UT        3.00      2.00      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 20-Feb 22 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 20-Feb 22 2026

             Feb 20       Feb 21       Feb 22
00-03UT       2.33         2.33         1.67
03-06UT       2.00         1.67         1.33
06-09UT       1.67         1.33         1.33
09-12UT       1.33         0.67         1.33
12-15UT       1.33         1.00         1.67
15-18UT       2.33         0.67         1.33
18-21UT       2.67         1.33         1.33
21-00UT       3.00         2.00         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 20-Feb 22 2026

              Feb 20  Feb 21  Feb 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 20-Feb 22 2026

              Feb 20        Feb 21        Feb 22
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 22 Feb.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels with three numbered active regions
on the visible solar disk. Region 4374 (N09W64, Cso/beta) remained the
largest and most complex region during the period and was the source of
a C1.0 flare at 19/1015 UTC and a C1.5 flare at 19/1918 UTC. It also
contributed with the slow component of the largest flare of the day: a
C2.0 flare at 19/0718 UTC, that included an impulsive component
originated at a positive polarity plage area above Region 4374 (near
N20W50). Region 4375 (N16W35, Hrx/alpha) and Region 4377 (N07W03,
Hrx/alpha) remained stable and quiet during the period.

A very narrow CME was observed at the Northeast quadrant of LASCO/C2
imagery after 19/0930 UTC but preliminary analysis do not suggest
impacts on Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed at available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare through 22 Feb, mostly due to the Region 4374 flare potential and
due to active regions that are rotating into the visible disk in the
next days.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak
level of 3,260 pfu at 19/1450 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
through 22 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels through 22 Feb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a positive
polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS), with wind speeds
ranging between 450-550 km/s during the day. Total interplanetary
magnetic field (Bt) oscillated around 5nT with a peak of 7 nT at 19/0509
UTC and. The north-south component of the IMF vector oscillated between
+/-5 nT during the period. The Phi angle remained predominantly in a
positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment near Earth is expected to reflect the waning
influences of the positive CH HSS, reaching background levels on 21-22
Feb.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to
+CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
on 20 Feb as +CH HSS conditions wane to background levels. Quiet levels
are anticipated for 21-22 Feb.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Feb 16     115          20          5
2026 Feb 17     115          12          4
2026 Feb 18     110          10          3
2026 Feb 19     110           8          3
2026 Feb 20     110           5          2
2026 Feb 21     105           5          2
2026 Feb 22     120           5          2
2026 Feb 23     130           8          3
2026 Feb 24     135          20          5
2026 Feb 25     130          20          5
2026 Feb 26     130           8          3
2026 Feb 27     140           5          2
2026 Feb 28     160           5          2
2026 Mar 01     165           5          2
2026 Mar 02     170           5          2
2026 Mar 03     170           5          2
2026 Mar 04     170           5          2
2026 Mar 05     165          15          4
2026 Mar 06     165          15          4
2026 Mar 07     165           8          3
2026 Mar 08     145           5          2
2026 Mar 09     140           8          3
2026 Mar 10     130          18          5
2026 Mar 11     130           8          3
2026 Mar 12     120          12          3
2026 Mar 13     120           5          2
2026 Mar 14     120          20          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey