Aurora Forecast

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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3499
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 19 0500 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3498
Begin Time: 2025 Jul 14 1550 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 10273 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5042
Issue Time: 2025 Jul 18 1437 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5041
Valid From: 2025 Jul 17 0840 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jul 18 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 July follow.
Solar flux 156 and estimated planetary A-index 11.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 19 July was 2.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 17 Jul 019
Estimated Ap 18 Jul 012
Predicted Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 010-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 19 Jul - 21 Jul
             Jul 19    Jul 20    Jul 21
00-03UT        3.00      1.67      1.67
03-06UT        3.00      2.00      2.00
06-09UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
09-12UT        2.67      1.33      1.33
12-15UT        1.67      1.00      0.67
15-18UT        1.67      0.67      1.33
18-21UT        1.00      1.67      1.00
21-00UT        2.00      1.67      1.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 19-Jul 21 2025 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 19-Jul 21 2025

             Jul 19       Jul 20       Jul 21
00-03UT       3.00         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       3.00         2.00         2.00
06-09UT       2.67         1.67         1.67
09-12UT       2.67         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       1.67         1.00         0.67
15-18UT       1.67         0.67         1.33
18-21UT       1.00         1.67         1.00
21-00UT       2.00         1.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 19-Jul 21 2025

              Jul 19  Jul 20  Jul 21
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms over 19-21 Jul due to multiple active regions in the
Suns NW quadrant.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 19-Jul 21 2025

              Jul 19        Jul 20        Jul 21
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely over 19-21
Jul due to multiple active regions in the Suns NW quadrant.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class activity observed.
Region 4136 (N21W50, Dkc/beta-gamma) produced the majority of the
C-flare activity this period. Minor growth was observed in Region 4143
(N25W38, Dki/beta) while the remaining regions were either stable or in
decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Low-level solar activity is expected to continue, with M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares likely, and a slight chance for an
isolated X-class (R3-Strong) flare over 19-21 Jul.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 10,272 pfu observed at 18/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
19-21 Jul. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 21 Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment remained mildly enhanced during the period
due to continued, but waning, positive polarity CH HSS influence. The
total magnetic field strength ranged between 5-7 nT, with the Bz
component reaching as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually
decreased throughout the period from a peak near 650 km/s to around 550
km/s. The phi remained mostly positive throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to continue but gradually
weaken over 19 Jul as positive polarity CH HSS influence subsides.
Ambient conditions are expected to prevail over 20-21 Jul.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to
positive polarity CH HSS influence.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated on 19 Jul as CH HSS
influence gradually subsides. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to
prevail over 20-21 Jul with the return of ambient solar wind conditions.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Jul 14     125          12          4
2025 Jul 15     128          10          3
2025 Jul 16     130          10          3
2025 Jul 17     125           8          3
2025 Jul 18     128           5          2
2025 Jul 19     122           5          2
2025 Jul 20     118           5          2
2025 Jul 21     120           5          2
2025 Jul 22     125          12          4
2025 Jul 23     125          20          4
2025 Jul 24     128          18          4
2025 Jul 25     128           8          3
2025 Jul 26     128           5          2
2025 Jul 27     130          10          4
2025 Jul 28     130           5          2
2025 Jul 29     130           5          2
2025 Jul 30     132           5          2
2025 Jul 31     130           5          2
2025 Aug 01     135          15          3
2025 Aug 02     135          20          4
2025 Aug 03     130          18          4
2025 Aug 04     128          12          4
2025 Aug 05     128           5          2
2025 Aug 06     125           5          2
2025 Aug 07     125          20          4
2025 Aug 08     125          15          4
2025 Aug 09     125          12          4

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.