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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3647
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 15 1645 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2026 Mar 15 1630 UTC
Station: GOES19
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2641
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 15 1122 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5287
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 15 1119 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Mar 15 1119 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Mar 15 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5286
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 14 2027 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5285
Valid From: 2026 Mar 13 0156 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Mar 15 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 14 March follow.
Solar flux 112 and estimated planetary A-index 40.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 15 March was 2.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 13 Mar 024
Estimated Ap 14 Mar 045
Predicted Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 024-015-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           35/25/10
Moderate storm        20/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  04/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 15 Mar - 17 Mar
             Mar 15    Mar 16    Mar 17
00-03UT        4.33      3.67      2.67
03-06UT        4.67      3.67      3.00
06-09UT        4.00      3.00      2.33
09-12UT        3.33      2.33      2.33
12-15UT        2.67      2.00      2.33
15-18UT        3.00      2.67      2.33
18-21UT        3.33      3.00      2.33
21-00UT        4.00      3.00      2.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 15-Mar 17 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 15-Mar 17 2026

             Mar 15       Mar 16       Mar 17
00-03UT       4.00         3.67         2.67
03-06UT       2.00         3.67         3.00
06-09UT       2.33         3.00         2.33
09-12UT       3.67         2.33         2.33
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    2.00         2.33
15-18UT       3.33         2.67         2.33
18-21UT       2.00         3.00         2.33
21-00UT       2.33         3.00         2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 15 Mar due to
influence from a positive polarity coronal hole.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 15-Mar 17 2026

              Mar 15  Mar 16  Mar 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 15-Mar 17 2026

              Mar 15        Mar 16        Mar 17
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 15-17 Mar.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4392 (S15E33, Cao/beta)
produced the strongest flare of the period, an M1.0 flare at 15/0939
UTC. Only minor changes were observed among the spotted numbered regions
on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 17 Mar.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels through 15 Mar before reaching high levels on 16 and 17
Mar due to high speed stream effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to continue at background levels through 17 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-9 nT. The
Bz component was mostly positive but briefly reached as far south as -7
nT early in the reporting period. Solar wind speeds were in gradual
decline, with speeds decreasing from ~700 km/s to ~650 km/s over the
past 24 hours. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive
solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated, but gradually
decline over the next three days (15-17 Mar). There is a small potential
for additional enhancement on 15-16 Mar from the periphery of a CME that
left the Sun on 13 Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to continue reaching active levels, with
potential to reach G1 (Minor) levels, over 15-16 Mar under the waning
phase of the coronal holes HSS. Unsettled levels are likely over 17
Mar.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Mar 09     135          12          4
2026 Mar 10     130          10          3
2026 Mar 11     125           8          3
2026 Mar 12     120           5          2
2026 Mar 13     115           5          2
2026 Mar 14     110          20          5
2026 Mar 15     110          15          4
2026 Mar 16     110          10          3
2026 Mar 17     110          10          3
2026 Mar 18     110          10          3
2026 Mar 19     105          12          4
2026 Mar 20     110          15          4
2026 Mar 21     110          35          6
2026 Mar 22     110          24          5
2026 Mar 23     115          15          4
2026 Mar 24     115          15          4
2026 Mar 25     120          18          5
2026 Mar 26     125          10          3
2026 Mar 27     130           8          3
2026 Mar 28     130           8          3
2026 Mar 29     130           5          2
2026 Mar 30     130          14          3
2026 Mar 31     130           6          2
2026 Apr 01     135           5          2
2026 Apr 02     130          10          3
2026 Apr 03     130          20          5
2026 Apr 04     130          25          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey