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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3778
Issue Time: 2020 Oct 24 0845 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3777
Valid From: 2020 Oct 23 1930 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2020 Oct 24 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1564
Issue Time: 2020 Oct 23 2055 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2020 Oct 23 2055 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Oct 24 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2174
Issue Time: 2020 Oct 23 2054 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2020 Oct 23 2054 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3777
Issue Time: 2020 Oct 23 1929 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2020 Oct 23 1930 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Oct 24 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 23 October follow.
Solar flux 72 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 24 October was 4.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 22 Oct 006
Estimated Ap 23 Oct 014
Predicted Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 020-015-020

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           35/25/35
Moderate storm        15/10/15
Strong-Extreme storm  05/01/05

NOAA Kp index forecast 24 Oct - 26 Oct
             Oct 24    Oct 25    Oct 26
00-03UT        4         3         3
03-06UT        5         4         4
06-09UT        4         3         5
09-12UT        3         3         4
12-15UT        3         2         3
15-18UT        3         3         3
18-21UT        3         3         3
21-00UT        3         3         3


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 24-Oct 26 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 24-Oct 26 2020

            Oct 24     Oct 25     Oct 26
00-03UT        4          3          3
03-06UT        5 (G1)     4          4
06-09UT        4          3          5 (G1)
09-12UT        3          3          4
12-15UT        3          2          3
15-18UT        3          3          3
18-21UT        3          3          3
21-00UT        3          3          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on 24
Oct and likely on 26 Oct due to CH HSS activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2020

              Oct 24  Oct 25  Oct 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2020

              Oct 24        Oct 25        Oct 26
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2776 (S14W57, Hsx/alpha) was stable
and quiet throughout the period. An area of emerging flux and
rudimentary sunspots was observed near N30E20, but this area will remain
unnumbered unless further development occurs.

A filament eruption, observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery, occurred at
23/1302 UTC in the NE quadrant near N37E60. Further analysis of a likely
CME will occur as imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels over 24-26 Oct.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
24-26 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist
at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels through the first half
of the period, but became enhanced after 23/1200 UTC. After 1200 UTC,
solar wind speeds increased from around 400 km/s to around 525 km/s,
total field reached 15 nT, and Bz briefly reached -10 nT. Density values
peaked at around 37 units and phi was variable throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced over 24-26 Oct due to
the influence of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to the onset of a positive
polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 24-26 Oct,
with G1 (Minor) storm conditions expected on 24 Oct and likely on 26
Oct, due to the influence of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2020 Oct 19      75           5          2
2020 Oct 20      74           8          3
2020 Oct 21      74          15          4
2020 Oct 22      74          18          5
2020 Oct 23      74          20          5
2020 Oct 24      74          20          5
2020 Oct 25      74          20          5
2020 Oct 26      72          15          4
2020 Oct 27      72          12          3
2020 Oct 28      72          10          3
2020 Oct 29      72           8          3
2020 Oct 30      72           5          2
2020 Oct 31      74           5          2
2020 Nov 01      74           5          2
2020 Nov 02      74           5          2
2020 Nov 03      74           5          2
2020 Nov 04      74           5          2
2020 Nov 05      74           5          2
2020 Nov 06      74           5          2
2020 Nov 07      74           5          2
2020 Nov 08      75           5          2
2020 Nov 09      75           5          2
2020 Nov 10      75           5          2
2020 Nov 11      75           5          2
2020 Nov 12      75           5          2
2020 Nov 13      75           5          2
2020 Nov 14      75           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.10b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 10th Oct 2019)
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2019 Brendan Davey