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The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2882
Issue Time: 2018 Dec 13 1208 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2881
Begin Time: 2018 Dec 10 2010 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2453 pfu
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 12 December follow.
Solar flux 71 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 13 December was 0.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 11 Dec 007
Estimated Ap 12 Dec 006
Predicted Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 005-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 13 Dec - 15 Dec
             Dec 13    Dec 14    Dec 15
00-03UT        2         2         2
03-06UT        1         2         1
06-09UT        2         2         1
09-12UT        2         1         1
12-15UT        1         1         1
15-18UT        1         1         1
18-21UT        1         1         2
21-00UT        1         1         2


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 13-Dec 15 2018 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 13-Dec 15 2018

            Dec 13     Dec 14     Dec 15
00-03UT        0          2          2
03-06UT        1          2          1
06-09UT        0          2          1
09-12UT        0          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        1          1          2
21-00UT        2          1          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 13-Dec 15 2018

              Dec 13  Dec 14  Dec 15
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 13-Dec 15 2018

              Dec 13        Dec 14        Dec 15
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 13-15 Dec.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high levels,
today. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 13-15 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at ambient conditions. Solar wind speed
decreased to near 400 km/s. Total field strength remained less than 5 nT
during the period. Bz ranged between +/- 3nT. Phi angle was mostly
oriented in a negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Nominal levels is expected for 13-15 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
A return to quiet conditions is expected for 13-15 Dec.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2018 Dec 10      68          12          4
2018 Dec 11      68           5          2
2018 Dec 12      68           8          3
2018 Dec 13      68           8          3
2018 Dec 14      68           5          2
2018 Dec 15      68           5          2
2018 Dec 16      68           5          2
2018 Dec 17      68           8          3
2018 Dec 18      68           8          3
2018 Dec 19      68           5          2
2018 Dec 20      68           5          2
2018 Dec 21      68           5          2
2018 Dec 22      68           5          2
2018 Dec 23      70           5          2
2018 Dec 24      70           5          2
2018 Dec 25      70           5          2
2018 Dec 26      70           5          2
2018 Dec 27      70           5          2
2018 Dec 28      70           8          3
2018 Dec 29      70          12          4
2018 Dec 30      70          10          3
2018 Dec 31      70           8          3
2019 Jan 01      70           5          2
2019 Jan 02      70           5          2
2019 Jan 03      70          10          3
2019 Jan 04      70          10          3
2019 Jan 05      68           8          3



 
The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.
  • GRAPH OPTIONS:

  • DATA SOURCES:

  • Planatary K Index (Kp):
  • Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast (GW):
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1):
  • ACE Observatory (L1):
  • Additional Magnetometer Sources:

 

 

The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) v3.8b


The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v3.8x
Various Updates, New TAFS Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).


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