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Alerts:
none

Solar-terrestrial indices for 24 April follow.
Solar flux 69 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 25 April was 0.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 23 Apr 008
Estimated Ap 24 Apr 008
Predicted Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 015-010-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Active                35/25/15
Minor storm           15/05/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 25 Apr - 27 Apr
             Apr 25    Apr 26    Apr 27
00-03UT        2         3         2
03-06UT        3         3         2
06-09UT        3         3         1
09-12UT        4         2         1
12-15UT        4         3         1
15-18UT        2         3         1
18-21UT        2         2         2
21-00UT        3         2         1


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 25-Apr 27 2019 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 25-Apr 27 2019

            Apr 25     Apr 26     Apr 27
00-03UT        1          3          2
03-06UT        2          3          2
06-09UT        2          3          1
09-12UT        2          2          1
12-15UT        4          3          1
15-18UT        2          3          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          2          1

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2019

              Apr 25  Apr 26  Apr 27
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2019

              Apr 25        Apr 26        Apr 27
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the forecast period (25-27
Apr).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 25 Apr with a chance for high levels on 26-27 Apr due
to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels over the majority of the
period, but have become slightly enhanced during the latter half of the
period to vaules avereraging near 420 km/s. Total field has also
undergone slight enhancement, averaging between 5-7 nT while the Bz
component has only gone brief, weak deflections. Phi angle was oriented
in a mostly negative (towards) solar sector.

.Forecast...
A negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective on 25 Apr
causing an enhancement in solar wind parameters. Solar wind speeds in
the 500-600 km/s range are likely, based on STEREO A data. CH HSS
influence is expected to slowly diminish on 26-27 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Quiet to active conditions are expected on 25 Apr due with the
arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected on 26 Apr as HSS influences slowly diminish. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected to return on 27 Apr.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2019 Apr 22      69           5          2
2019 Apr 23      69           8          3
2019 Apr 24      69           8          3
2019 Apr 25      69           8          3
2019 Apr 26      69           5          2
2019 Apr 27      69          12          4
2019 Apr 28      69           8          3
2019 Apr 29      69           5          2
2019 Apr 30      69          10          3
2019 May 01      69          14          4
2019 May 02      69          12          4
2019 May 03      72           8          3
2019 May 04      76           5          2
2019 May 05      76          10          3
2019 May 06      77          12          3
2019 May 07      78          14          4
2019 May 08      78           8          3
2019 May 09      78           8          3
2019 May 10      78           8          3
2019 May 11      78           5          2
2019 May 12      78           5          2
2019 May 13      78           5          2
2019 May 14      78           5          2
2019 May 15      78           5          2
2019 May 16      78           5          2
2019 May 17      76           5          2
2019 May 18      72           5          2



 
The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.
  • GRAPH OPTIONS:

  • DATA SOURCES:

  • Planatary K Index (Kp):
  • Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast (GW):
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1):
  • ACE Observatory (L1):
  • Additional Magnetometer Sources:

 

 

The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) v3.8b


The Aurora Forecast Service (TAFS) is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v3.8x
Various Updates, New TAFS Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).


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