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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2253
Issue Time: 2021 Nov 29 0256 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Nov 29 0247 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3977
Issue Time: 2021 Nov 29 0256 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3976
Valid From: 2021 Nov 28 2225 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Nov 29 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3976
Issue Time: 2021 Nov 28 2224 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Nov 28 2225 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Nov 29 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 28 November follow.
Solar flux 92 and estimated planetary A-index 9.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 29 November was 1.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 27 Nov 005
Estimated Ap 28 Nov 009
Predicted Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 008-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 29 Nov - 01 Dec
             Nov 29    Nov 30    Dec 01
00-03UT        3         2         2
03-06UT        3         1         1
06-09UT        3         1         2
09-12UT        2         1         2
12-15UT        1         1         1
15-18UT        1         1         1
18-21UT        1         2         1
21-00UT        2         2         1


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 29-Dec 01 2021 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 29-Dec 01 2021

            Nov 29     Nov 30     Dec 01
00-03UT        3          2          2
03-06UT        3          1          1
06-09UT        3          1          2
09-12UT        2          1          2
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        1          2          1
21-00UT        2          2          1

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 29-Dec 01 2021

              Nov 29  Nov 30  Dec 01
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 29-Dec 01 2021

              Nov 29        Nov 30        Dec 01
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2900 (S26W36, Dso/beta) produced
multiple B-class flares and exhibited growth throughout the period.
Region 2898 (S24W22, Cso/beta) produced B-class flare activity and was
in decay. New Region 2901 (N16E64, Hsx/alpha) was stable and Region 2899
(S21, L=308) decayed to plage before rotating out of view. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for isolated
C-class flare activity, over 29 Nov-01 Dec.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate over 29 Nov-01 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a CME. Solar
wind speeds ranged between 340-410 km/s. Total field strength reached a
peak of 17 nT and Bz reached -16 nT early this period. The phi angle was
negative.

.Forecast...
A slightly disturbed solar wind environment is expected to persist
through midday on 29 Nov, with background conditions expected to prevail
over 30 Nov-01 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to weak CME effects.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 Nov as CME effects
subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail over 30 Nov-01
Dec with the return of a background solar wind environment.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2021 Nov 29      92          10          3
2021 Nov 30      94           5          2
2021 Dec 01      94           5          2
2021 Dec 02      88           5          2
2021 Dec 03      88          10          3
2021 Dec 04      88          10          3
2021 Dec 05      88           8          3
2021 Dec 06      85           5          2
2021 Dec 07      82           5          2
2021 Dec 08      80           5          2
2021 Dec 09      82           5          2
2021 Dec 10      82           5          2
2021 Dec 11      82           5          2
2021 Dec 12      82           8          3
2021 Dec 13      80          12          4
2021 Dec 14      80          10          3
2021 Dec 15      85           5          2
2021 Dec 16      85           5          2
2021 Dec 17      85           8          3
2021 Dec 18      85          10          3
2021 Dec 19      85           5          2
2021 Dec 20      85           5          2
2021 Dec 21      85           5          2
2021 Dec 22      82           5          2
2021 Dec 23      80           5          2
2021 Dec 24      78           5          2
2021 Dec 25      78           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.15b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2020 Brendan Davey