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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3621
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 07 1418 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2026 Feb 07 1340 UTC
Station: GOES18
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5249
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 07 0848 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5248
Valid From: 2026 Feb 06 1253 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Feb 07 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5248
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 06 2351 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5247
Valid From: 2026 Feb 06 1253 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Feb 07 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 06 February follow.
Solar flux 164 and estimated planetary A-index 16.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 07 February was 2.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 level are expected.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 05 Feb 022
Estimated Ap 06 Feb 014
Predicted Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 015-020-016

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/40/15
Moderate storm        01/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 07 Feb - 09 Feb
             Feb 07    Feb 08    Feb 09
00-03UT        4.00      4.67      3.33
03-06UT        2.67      3.67      2.00
06-09UT        1.67      3.33      2.00
09-12UT        1.67      3.33      3.00
12-15UT        2.33      2.00      3.00
15-18UT        2.67      3.33      3.33
18-21UT        3.33      3.33      3.67
21-00UT        4.00      3.67      3.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 07-Feb 09 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 07-Feb 09 2026

             Feb 07       Feb 08       Feb 09
00-03UT       3.67         4.67 (G1)    3.33
03-06UT       3.33         3.67         2.67
06-09UT       3.33         3.33         2.00
09-12UT       2.67         3.33         3.00
12-15UT       2.67         2.00         3.00
15-18UT       1.67         3.33         3.33
18-21UT       2.67         3.33         3.00
21-00UT       3.67         3.67         3.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 08 Feb due to
the anticipated arrival of a CME (from 03 Feb), combined with the onset
of new negative polarity CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 07-Feb 09 2026

              Feb 07  Feb 08  Feb 09
S1 or greater   25%     25%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms over 07-09 Feb due to the eruptive potential and location of
Region 4366.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 07-Feb 09 2026

              Feb 07        Feb 08        Feb 09
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 07-09 Feb, primarily due
to the eruptive potential of Region 4366.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. The strongest flare of the period
was a C7.3 at 07/0819 UTC from Region 4362 (S17W41, Dao/beta). Region
4366 (N14W39, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) was the largest and most complex
group on the disk. It produced the majority of the C-flare activity
observed during the period and showed minor intermediate spot
development. The remaining regions were mostly unchanged from the
previous period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available
imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a chance for
X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater), over 07-09 Feb, primarily due to
the eruptive potential of Region 4366.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, while the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout
the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels on 07 Feb and high levels on 08-09 Feb. There is a chance for
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over
07-09 Feb due to the eruptive potential and location of Region 4366.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained mildly enhanced this period under
negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength values
remained steady near 5-7 nT, with the Bz component ranging between +/-6
nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from a peak near 625 km/s to
around 450 km/s by the end of the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain mildly enhanced through
07 Feb due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. An
additional disturbance is likely over 08-09 Feb with the anticipated
arrival of a CME (from 03 Feb), combined with the onset of new negative
polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels in response to
negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
Additional active periods are likely through the remainder of 07 Feb due
to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storming are likely on 08 Feb, with active levels likely on
09 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of a CME (from 03 Feb), combined
with the onset of new negative polarity CH HSS influences.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Feb 02     160           5          2
2026 Feb 03     155           5          2
2026 Feb 04     155           5          2
2026 Feb 05     145           5          2
2026 Feb 06     120           8          3
2026 Feb 07     125           8          3
2026 Feb 08     130           8          3
2026 Feb 09     135          10          3
2026 Feb 10     140           8          3
2026 Feb 11     135           8          3
2026 Feb 12     140           5          2
2026 Feb 13     145          20          5
2026 Feb 14     145          15          4
2026 Feb 15     155          15          4
2026 Feb 16     160          15          4
2026 Feb 17     170          15          4
2026 Feb 18     180          15          4
2026 Feb 19     175          15          4
2026 Feb 20     170          15          4
2026 Feb 21     160          15          4
2026 Feb 22     150           8          3
2026 Feb 23     140           8          3
2026 Feb 24     135          20          4
2026 Feb 25     130          20          4
2026 Feb 26     130           8          3
2026 Feb 27     140           5          2
2026 Feb 28     160           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey