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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1275
Issue Time: 2024 Feb 21 0413 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Feb 21 0201 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 627 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 21 February follow.
Solar flux 170 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 21 February was 1.67.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 20 Feb 006
Estimated Ap 21 Feb 004
Predicted Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 005-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 22 Feb - 24 Feb
             Feb 22    Feb 23    Feb 24
00-03UT        1.67      1.67      1.67
03-06UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
06-09UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
09-12UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
12-15UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
15-18UT        1.33      1.33      1.33
18-21UT        1.67      1.67      1.67
21-00UT        1.67      1.67      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2024 is 1.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 21-Feb 23 2024

             Feb 21       Feb 22       Feb 23
00-03UT       1.00         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       0.33         1.33         1.33
06-09UT       0.67         1.33         1.33
09-12UT       1.00         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.33
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2024

              Feb 21  Feb 22  Feb 23
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2024

              Feb 21        Feb 22        Feb 23
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
all three days.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels despite the continued growth and
extent of AR3590 (N17E45, Fki/beta-gamma). The other 2 regions were
simple magnetically, stable and/or in decay. Type II sweeps were
reported shortly after 21/0200 UTC in association with a far sided CME.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) from AR3590 through 23 Feb.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was generally less than 1 pfu at
GOES-18 and below the S1 (Minor) radiation storm threshold of 10 pfu.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue to decrease
to background levels through 23 Feb. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were elevated with what is likely passing
influence from the 16 Feb CME that was progged to pass ahead of Earth
earlier today. Total field strength peaked at 9 nT and Bz underwent a
few sustained, southward deviations of no more than -8 nT. Wind speeds
increased late in the period from near 260 km/s to 350 km/s. Phi was
positive.

.Forecast...
A return to nominal levels is expected on 21 Feb.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Despite minor CME influences, the geomagnetic field remained at quiet
levels.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated through 23 Feb with no
significant features forecast in the solar wind.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Feb 19     160           8          3
2024 Feb 20     160          10          3
2024 Feb 21     165           5          2
2024 Feb 22     170           5          2
2024 Feb 23     170           5          2
2024 Feb 24     172           5          2
2024 Feb 25     172           5          2
2024 Feb 26     165           8          3
2024 Feb 27     165           7          3
2024 Feb 28     165           5          2
2024 Feb 29     155           5          2
2024 Mar 01     160           5          2
2024 Mar 02     165           5          2
2024 Mar 03     170           5          2
2024 Mar 04     170           5          2
2024 Mar 05     170           5          2
2024 Mar 06     170           5          2
2024 Mar 07     170           5          2
2024 Mar 08     170           5          2
2024 Mar 09     170           5          2
2024 Mar 10     165           5          2
2024 Mar 11     165           5          2
2024 Mar 12     165           5          2
2024 Mar 13     165           5          2
2024 Mar 14     165           5          2
2024 Mar 15     165           5          2
2024 Mar 16     165           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey