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Weather: TAS
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Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 November follow.
Solar flux 109 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 01 December was 0.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 29 Nov 006
Estimated Ap 30 Nov 010
Predicted Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 012-012-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Active                35/35/10
Minor storm           25/25/01
Moderate storm        05/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 01 Dec - 03 Dec
             Dec 01    Dec 02    Dec 03
00-03UT        2         4         2
03-06UT        1         4         1
06-09UT        1         3         1
09-12UT        1         2         1
12-15UT        2         1         1
15-18UT        4         1         2
18-21UT        4         1         2
21-00UT        3         2         1


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 01-Dec 03 2020 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 01-Dec 03 2020

            Dec 01     Dec 02     Dec 03
00-03UT        1          4          2
03-06UT        0          4          1
06-09UT        0          3          1
09-12UT        0          2          1
12-15UT        2          1          1
15-18UT        4          1          2
18-21UT        4          1          2
21-00UT        4          2          1

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 01-Dec 03 2020

              Dec 01  Dec 02  Dec 03
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms due to
the elevated proton flux from the 29 Nov event coupled with the
potential and location of region 2786.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 01-Dec 03 2020

              Dec 01        Dec 02        Dec 03
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1 and R2 (Minor and
Moderate) radio blackouts due mostly to the flare potential of region
2786 and the 29 Nov event produced by region 2790.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2787 (N30,L=305), 2788 (S27,
L=349, and 2789 (S25, L=300) decayed to plage. Region 2786 (S15W24,
Cko/beta) underwent consolidation and decay in its intermediate and
trailer spots, and remained inactive for the period. Newly numbered
region 2790 (S23E61, Hax/alpha) produced a C3.8 flare at 01/0427 UTC
which was the largest of the period.

After decaying to plage, region 2787 produced a short-lived C1.2 flare
resulting in an observed CME in coronagraph imagery. Initial observation
is that this CME is aimed more towards STEREO-A, but a model run is
underway to determine if there is any Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 01-03 Dec.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced from the southeast limb
event on 29 Nov but remained below the 10 pfu threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 01-03 Dec. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event (S1-minor) given the sustained, gradual rise in
pfu.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated. Wind speeds ranged from
400-550 km/s, total field averaged 3-4 nT, and the Bz component ranged
from -5 nT to 4 nT. Phi was in a negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Model runs suggest a shock enhancement/glancing blow from the 29 Nov CME
on 01-02 Dec. The bulk of the ejecta was not Earth-directed.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
While model runs suggest a possible glancing blow as early as 1 Dec from
the 29 Nov CME, it is not entirely likely since the CME occurred behind
the east limb. Nonetheless, this expansive event has spurred a slight
particle response at ACE and GOES, which suggests Earth may see some
component of this CME. Active conditions are possible if this were to
materialize. Otherwise quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated as
solar wind rebounds nearer to background levels.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2020 Nov 30     115           5          2
2020 Dec 01     113          12          4
2020 Dec 02     113          12          4
2020 Dec 03     113           5          2
2020 Dec 04     110           5          2
2020 Dec 05     105           5          2
2020 Dec 06     103           5          2
2020 Dec 07      95           5          2
2020 Dec 08      95           5          2
2020 Dec 09      92           5          2
2020 Dec 10      88           5          2
2020 Dec 11      85           5          2
2020 Dec 12      85           5          2
2020 Dec 13      82           5          2
2020 Dec 14      82           5          2
2020 Dec 15      82           5          2
2020 Dec 16      82           5          2
2020 Dec 17      85           5          2
2020 Dec 18      90          12          4
2020 Dec 19     100          20          5
2020 Dec 20     105           8          3
2020 Dec 21     105           5          2
2020 Dec 22     108           5          2
2020 Dec 23     110           8          3
2020 Dec 24     110          10          3
2020 Dec 25     110           8          3
2020 Dec 26     115           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.10b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 10th Oct 2019)
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2019 Brendan Davey