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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 1096
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 13 1822 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Feb 14:  None (Below G1)   Feb 15:  G1 (Minor)   Feb 16:  G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3626
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 13 1707 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2026 Feb 13 1650 UTC
Station: GOES19
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5254
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 13 1629 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5253
Valid From: 2026 Feb 13 0210 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Feb 13 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2631
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 13 0213 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5253
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 13 0211 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Feb 13 0210 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Feb 13 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 13 February follow.
Solar flux 117 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 13 February was 2.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 11 Feb 018
Estimated Ap 12 Feb 009
Predicted Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005-012-020

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Active                10/15/35
Minor storm           05/05/50
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 13 Feb - 15 Feb
             Feb 13    Feb 14    Feb 15
00-03UT        1.67      3.00      3.67
03-06UT        1.33      2.67      2.67
06-09UT        1.33      2.00      2.67
09-12UT        1.33      2.67      2.33
12-15UT        1.33      2.00      2.33
15-18UT        1.33      2.67      2.33
18-21UT        1.67      2.67      4.67
21-00UT        1.67      3.00      5.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 13-Feb 15 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 13-Feb 15 2026

             Feb 13       Feb 14       Feb 15
00-03UT       4.00         3.00         2.67
03-06UT       2.00         2.67         3.67
06-09UT       2.67         2.00         3.67
09-12UT       2.33         2.67         4.67 (G1)
12-15UT       2.67         2.00         3.67
15-18UT       3.67         2.67         2.67
18-21UT       2.00         2.67         2.67
21-00UT       1.00         3.67         3.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 15 Feb due to
positive polarity CH HSS influences and possible weak CME influences as
a CME from 11 Feb passes in close proximity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 13-Feb 15 2026

              Feb 13  Feb 14  Feb 15
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.


C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 13 2026 0858 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 13-Feb 15 2026

              Feb 13        Feb 14        Feb 15
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
flares through 15 Feb.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels after Region 4373 (N10W22,
Cao/beta) produced an M1.0/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 13/0858 UTC, the
largest of the period. Region 4374 (N10E26, Cao/beta) developed a
rudimentary trailer spot, while the remaining regions were stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 15 Feb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,210 pfu observed at 12/1545 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
13-15 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels through 15 Feb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were weakly enhanced under diminishing negative
polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength ranged between
4-9 nT. The Bz component was sustained southward, by as much as -7 nT,
between 12/2230-13/0130 UTC and 13/0600-0800 UTC. Solar wind speeds
ranged from approximately 350-450 km/s throughout the period. Phi was
predominately negative, with some variability noted after 13/0745 UTC.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain weakly enhanced on 13
Feb as negative polarity CH HSS influences subside. A stronger
enhancement is expected on 14-15 Feb due to CIR effects and the onset of
positive polarity CH HSS influences. Weak CME influences are possible on
14-15 Feb as a CME from 11 Feb passes in close proximity.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to waning
negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 13
Feb as negative polarity CH HSS influences subside. Active conditions
are likely on 14 Feb, with periods of G1 (Minor) storming likely on 15
Feb, due to CIR effects and the onset of positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Weak CME influences are possible on 14-15 Feb as a CME from
11 Feb passes in close proximity.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Feb 09     165          15          4
2026 Feb 10     160           8          3
2026 Feb 11     155           5          2
2026 Feb 12     150           5          2
2026 Feb 13     145           5          2
2026 Feb 14     140           5          2
2026 Feb 15     150           5          2
2026 Feb 16     160          15          4
2026 Feb 17     170          15          4
2026 Feb 18     180          15          4
2026 Feb 19     175          15          4
2026 Feb 20     170          15          4
2026 Feb 21     160          15          4
2026 Feb 22     150           8          3
2026 Feb 23     140           8          3
2026 Feb 24     135          20          5
2026 Feb 25     130          20          5
2026 Feb 26     130           8          3
2026 Feb 27     140           5          2
2026 Feb 28     160           5          2
2026 Mar 01     165           5          2
2026 Mar 02     170           5          2
2026 Mar 03     170           5          2
2026 Mar 04     170           5          2
2026 Mar 05     165          15          4
2026 Mar 06     165          15          4
2026 Mar 07     165           8          3


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey