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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3629
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 18 0527 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3628
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 16 1635 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2215 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1467
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 18 0452 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2026 Feb 18 0431 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 310 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 17 February follow.
Solar flux 122 and estimated planetary A-index 11.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 18 February was 2.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 16 Feb 029
Estimated Ap 17 Feb 011
Predicted Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 015-012-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Active                35/35/20
Minor storm           20/20/10
Moderate storm        05/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 18 Feb - 20 Feb
             Feb 18    Feb 19    Feb 20
00-03UT        3.67      2.67      3.00
03-06UT        4.00      3.00      3.00
06-09UT        3.33      2.33      2.33
09-12UT        3.00      2.00      1.33
12-15UT        2.33      2.00      1.33
15-18UT        2.00      2.00      1.67
18-21UT        2.00      3.00      2.00
21-00UT        2.67      3.67      3.00


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 18-Feb 20 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 18-Feb 20 2026

             Feb 18       Feb 19       Feb 20
00-03UT       2.33         2.67         3.00
03-06UT       3.33         3.00         3.00
06-09UT       2.33         2.33         2.33
09-12UT       2.00         2.00         1.33
12-15UT       3.00         2.00         1.33
15-18UT       3.67         2.00         1.67
18-21UT       3.67         3.00         2.00
21-00UT       3.67         3.67         3.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 18-Feb 20 2026

              Feb 18  Feb 19  Feb 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 18-Feb 20 2026

              Feb 18        Feb 19        Feb 20
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels,
with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through
20 Feb.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The strongest event of the period was
a C1.8 flare at 17/2323Z from Region 4374 (N09W43, Dsi/beta). This
region was also responsible for the C1.4 flare at 18/0507Z. The only
other flare of note was C1.1 flare at 17/1848Z from an unnumbered plage
region near S05E85. Region 4374 exhibited minor decay through the
dissipation of its trailing spots. Regions 4375 (N17W14, Hrx/alpha) and
4377 (N08E18, Cro/beta) were largely unchanged in area and complexity.

A large filament eruption beyond the southwest limb was seen in SDO and
SUVI imagery starting at approximately 18/0408Z. It was associated with
a Type II radio sweep that began at 18/0431Z with an estimated shock
velocity of 310 km/s. The eruption was first visible in coronagraph
imagery (LASCO C2) at 18/0436Z. Initial analysis indicates no
Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 20 Feb.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak of
2,210 pfu at 17/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
through 20 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels through 20 Feb.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the waning influence of a
positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+ CH HSS). Solar wind
speed followed a general declining trend, decreasing from an initial
peak near 600 km/s to approximately 500 km/s by the end of the reporting
period. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained relatively constant at
approximately 5 nT. The North-South component (Bz) remained mostly
northward but exhibited multiple fluctuations and reached a maximum
southward deflection of -4 nT at 17/1441Z. The Phi angle was
predominantly in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 20 Feb
due to continued but weakening CH HSS influences. Weak influences from
the 16 Feb CME are possible on 19 Feb.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to
+ CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
Quiet to active periods are expected, with a chance for G1 (Minor)
storming, on 18-19 Feb due as HSS activity persists and wanes, with
possible glancing influences from the 16 Feb CME arriving late on 19
Feb. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on 20 Feb as HSS
conditions wane to background levels.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Feb 16     115          20          5
2026 Feb 17     115          12          4
2026 Feb 18     110          10          3
2026 Feb 19     110           8          3
2026 Feb 20     110           5          2
2026 Feb 21     105           5          2
2026 Feb 22     120           5          2
2026 Feb 23     130           8          3
2026 Feb 24     135          20          5
2026 Feb 25     130          20          5
2026 Feb 26     130           8          3
2026 Feb 27     140           5          2
2026 Feb 28     160           5          2
2026 Mar 01     165           5          2
2026 Mar 02     170           5          2
2026 Mar 03     170           5          2
2026 Mar 04     170           5          2
2026 Mar 05     165          15          4
2026 Mar 06     165          15          4
2026 Mar 07     165           8          3
2026 Mar 08     145           5          2
2026 Mar 09     140           8          3
2026 Mar 10     130          18          5
2026 Mar 11     130           8          3
2026 Mar 12     120          12          3
2026 Mar 13     120           5          2
2026 Mar 14     120          20          5


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey