Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
none

Solar-terrestrial indices for 11 August follow.
Solar flux 74 and estimated planetary A-index 3.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0900 UTC on 12 August was 1.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 10 Aug 003
Estimated Ap 11 Aug 003
Predicted Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 005-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 12 Aug - 14 Aug
             Aug 12    Aug 13    Aug 14
00-03UT        1         2         2
03-06UT        1         1         2
06-09UT        1         1         1
09-12UT        2         1         1
12-15UT        2         1         1
15-18UT        1         1         1
18-21UT        1         2         1
21-00UT        2         2         2

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 12-Aug 14 2020 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 12-Aug 14 2020

            Aug 12     Aug 13     Aug 14
00-03UT        1          2          2
03-06UT        1          1          2
06-09UT        1          1          1
09-12UT        2          1          1
12-15UT        2          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        1          2          1
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 12-Aug 14 2020

              Aug 12  Aug 13  Aug 14
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 12-Aug 14 2020

              Aug 12        Aug 13        Aug 14
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Very low solar activity continued and Region 2770 (N23W30, Axx/alpha)
decayed further. Despite the dissipation, Region 2770 produced a weak
B2-level X-ray enhancement at 11/1659 UTC that was observed as an
optical subflare by USAF solar observatories. Analysis of GOES-16/SUVI
and STEREO/EUVI imagery revealed a likely active region just beyond the
solar disks SE limb, that may rotate into Earth-view in another day. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Very low solar activity is expected 12-14 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels for the seventh
consecutive day and peaked at 2,410 pfu at 11/1525 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
12-14 Aug; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained indicative of an ambient-background, slow
regime. Total IMF strength was mostly less than 5 nT and Bz variations
were negligible. Solar wind speed averaged around 300 km/s and the phi
angle was positive.

.Forecast...
A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue 12-14 Aug.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Quiet conditions dominated the geomagnetic state.

.Forecast...
Quiet conditions are expected 12-14 Aug as earth continues under the
influence of an ambient, slow solar wind regime.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2020 Aug 10      75           5          2
2020 Aug 11      75           5          2
2020 Aug 12      75           5          2
2020 Aug 13      75           5          2
2020 Aug 14      73           5          2
2020 Aug 15      73           5          2
2020 Aug 16      72           5          2
2020 Aug 17      72           5          2
2020 Aug 18      72           5          2
2020 Aug 19      72           5          2
2020 Aug 20      72           5          2
2020 Aug 21      72           5          2
2020 Aug 22      72           5          2
2020 Aug 23      72           5          2
2020 Aug 24      72           5          2
2020 Aug 25      72           5          2
2020 Aug 26      72           5          2
2020 Aug 27      72           5          2
2020 Aug 28      73           5          2
2020 Aug 29      73           8          3
2020 Aug 30      75          16          4
2020 Aug 31      75           8          3
2020 Sep 01      75           5          2
2020 Sep 02      75           5          2
2020 Sep 03      75           5          2
2020 Sep 04      75           5          2
2020 Sep 05      75           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary (G15) Secondary (G14) Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.10b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 10th Oct 2019)
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2019 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.