Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5252
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 11 1937 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Feb 11 1936 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Feb 12 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 2189
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 10 2330 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2026 Feb 10 2330 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Feb 11 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2629
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 10 2215 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5251
Issue Time: 2026 Feb 10 2214 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Feb 10 2213 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Feb 11 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 10 February follow.
Solar flux 142 and estimated planetary A-index 10.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 11 February was 3.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 09 Feb 007
Estimated Ap 10 Feb 007
Predicted Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 005-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 11 Feb - 13 Feb
             Feb 11    Feb 12    Feb 13
00-03UT        1.67      1.67      1.67
03-06UT        1.67      2.00      1.33
06-09UT        1.67      1.67      1.33
09-12UT        1.00      1.33      1.33
12-15UT        1.33      0.67      1.33
15-18UT        1.33      1.00      1.33
18-21UT        1.00      1.67      1.67
21-00UT        1.67      1.67      1.67

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 11-Feb 13 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 11-Feb 13 2026

             Feb 11       Feb 12       Feb 13
00-03UT       4.00         1.67         1.67
03-06UT       3.33         2.00         1.33
06-09UT       3.00         1.67         1.33
09-12UT       3.00         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       1.33         0.67         1.33
15-18UT       1.33         1.00         1.33
18-21UT       1.00         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         1.67

Rationale: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at unsettled up to
active levels on 11 Feb before returning to quiet levels on 12-13 Feb as
no recurrent or transient disturbances are anticipated near Earth during
this period.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 11-Feb 13 2026

              Feb 11  Feb 12  Feb 13
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 11 2026 0057 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 11-Feb 13 2026

              Feb 11        Feb 12        Feb 13
R1-R2           15%           10%           10%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 13 Feb.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels during the reporting period. The
strongest event was a long-duration, double-peaked M1.2 flare from
Region 4366 (N14W90, Fhc/beta-gamma-delta). Region 4366 was also the
source of six C-class flares. Region 4371 (S23W41, Hrx/alpha) and Region
4374 (N11E51, Cso/beta) produced the remaining C-class activity, with
Region 4373 producing a long-duration C3.2 flare peaking at 10/1910Z.
Notably, the bulk of Region 4366 has now rotated off the visible disk.
Regions 4371 (S23W41, Hrx/alpha) and 4369 (S02W56, Hrx/alpha) exhibited
decay in extent, while other numbered regions remained relatively
static. A new region is currently rotating into view over the northeast
limb (near N16); however, characterization of its complexity and extent
is pending further observation.

Around 10/1910Z, a large filament (located near N15W25) lifted off and
disappeared from GONG H-alpha imagery. Initial coronagraph imagery from
LASCO C2 at 10/1948Z revealed an eruption likely superimposed over a
separate eruption from S22W80 (first visible in C2 at 10/1924Z).
Evaluation of both eruptions remains ongoing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low through 13 Feb. Probability for
M-class (R1-R2) and X-class (R3 or greater) flares has dropped
significantly as Region 4366 continues to rotate behind the western limb
with a slight chance (10-15%) for M- and X-class flaring 11-13 Feb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a maximum flux of 1,006 pfu observed at 10/1205 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
11-13 Feb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS) with discrete mild
disturbances likely associated with embedded transient structures. Solar
wind speeds remained generally elevated, predominantly ranging between
425–500 km/s throughout the period. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained
around 7 nT with the North-South (Bz) component southward for the
majority of the period, attaining a maximum southward deflection of -7
nT. Isolated intervals of northward Bz were observed primarily after
11/0000Z. The Phi angle remained in a predominantly negative (towards)
orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment near Earth is likely to be undisturbed on Feb
11-13 as there are no recurrent or transient disturbances anticipated
for the next days.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled up to active
levels on 11 Feb before returning to quiet levels on 12-13 Feb, as
no recurrent or transient disturbances are anticipated near Earth at the
period.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Feb 09     165          15          4
2026 Feb 10     160           8          3
2026 Feb 11     155           5          2
2026 Feb 12     150           5          2
2026 Feb 13     145           5          2
2026 Feb 14     140           5          2
2026 Feb 15     150           5          2
2026 Feb 16     160          15          4
2026 Feb 17     170          15          4
2026 Feb 18     180          15          4
2026 Feb 19     175          15          4
2026 Feb 20     170          15          4
2026 Feb 21     160          15          4
2026 Feb 22     150           8          3
2026 Feb 23     140           8          3
2026 Feb 24     135          20          5
2026 Feb 25     130          20          5
2026 Feb 26     130           8          3
2026 Feb 27     140           5          2
2026 Feb 28     160           5          2
2026 Mar 01     165           5          2
2026 Mar 02     170           5          2
2026 Mar 03     170           5          2
2026 Mar 04     170           5          2
2026 Mar 05     165          15          4
2026 Mar 06     165          15          4
2026 Mar 07     165           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.