Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4065
Issue Time: 2022 Aug 08 1740 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4064
Valid From: 2022 Aug 07 0752 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2022 Aug 09 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3216
Issue Time: 2022 Aug 08 1711 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2022 Aug 08 1645 UTC
Station: GOES16
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4064
Issue Time: 2022 Aug 08 0839 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4063
Valid From: 2022 Aug 07 0752 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2022 Aug 08 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1657
Issue Time: 2022 Aug 08 0839 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1656
Valid From: 2022 Aug 07 1428 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2022 Aug 08 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1380
Issue Time: 2022 Aug 08 0830 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2022 Aug 08 0828 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1379
Issue Time: 2022 Aug 08 0607 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2022 Aug 08 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 08 August follow.
Solar flux 113 and estimated planetary A-index 31.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 09 August was 4.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 07 Aug 024
Estimated Ap 08 Aug 030
Predicted Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 016-012-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           30/25/15
Moderate storm        15/10/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 09 Aug - 11 Aug
             Aug 09    Aug 10    Aug 11
00-03UT        3         4         3
03-06UT        4         3         2
06-09UT        3         3         2
09-12UT        2         2         2
12-15UT        2         2         2
15-18UT        3         2         2
18-21UT        3         2         2
21-00UT        4         2         3

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 09-Aug 11 2022 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 09-Aug 11 2022

            Aug 09     Aug 10     Aug 11
00-03UT        3          4          3
03-06UT        4          3          2
06-09UT        3          3          2
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        4          2          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 09-Aug 11 2022

              Aug 09  Aug 10  Aug 11
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 09-Aug 11 2022

              Aug 09        Aug 10        Aug 11
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 11 Aug.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low, with only B-level enhancements observed.
All five of the numbered regions were stable, quiet, and otherwise
unremarkable. Despite coronal dimming on GOES-16 SUVI 195 imagery
between Region 3071 (S21W07, Hsx/alpha) and Region 3074 (S16E26,
Hsx/alpha), no CMEs were observed that would indicate an Earth-directed
trajectory.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares on 09-11 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a
peak of 1614 pfu at 08/2045 UTC, following the onset of the high speed
stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 09-11 Aug in association with the elevated wind speeds
from the CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence from a positive
polarity CH HSS. Total field began the period near 12 nT, but has since
decreased to average near 5 nT. The Bz component saw a maximum southward
deflection to near -13 nT. Solar wind speeds increased to values over
600 km/s, and the Phi remained in a predominantly positive orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 09-11 Aug as
multiple positive polarity CH HSSs connect with the Earths magnetic
field lines.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at active to G1 (Minor) storm levels during
the first half of the period due to persistent HSS activity.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels,
with a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming period, on
09-10 Aug due to multiple positive polarity CH HSS. Conditions should
begin to taper off by 11 Aug as the CH HSS influence begins to subside.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2022 Aug 08     116          18          5
2022 Aug 09     112          14          4
2022 Aug 10     112          10          3
2022 Aug 11     112           8          3
2022 Aug 12     110           5          2
2022 Aug 13     110           5          2
2022 Aug 14     108           5          2
2022 Aug 15     108           5          2
2022 Aug 16     108           5          2
2022 Aug 17     106          22          5
2022 Aug 18     104          15          4
2022 Aug 19     104          15          4
2022 Aug 20     104           8          3
2022 Aug 21     102           5          2
2022 Aug 22      98           5          2
2022 Aug 23     100           5          2
2022 Aug 24     102           5          2
2022 Aug 25     100           5          2
2022 Aug 26     102           5          2
2022 Aug 27     100          12          4
2022 Aug 28     102           8          3
2022 Aug 29     102           8          3
2022 Aug 30     102           8          3
2022 Aug 31     108           5          2
2022 Sep 01     114           5          2
2022 Sep 02     116           5          2
2022 Sep 03     116          14          4

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.