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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1140
Issue Time: 2022 May 25 1847 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2022 May 25 1817 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 994 km/s
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 574
Issue Time: 2022 May 25 1842 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2022 May 25 1824 UTC
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 25 May follow.
Solar flux 137 and estimated planetary A-index 6.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 26 May was 1.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 24 May 004
Estimated Ap 25 May 006
Predicted Ap 26 May-28 May 012-014-010

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           15/15/10
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 26 May - 28 May
             May 26    May 27    May 28
00-03UT        2         3         3
03-06UT        2         4         3
06-09UT        2         4         2
09-12UT        1         3         3
12-15UT        2         3         2
15-18UT        3         2         2
18-21UT        4         2         3
21-00UT        4         3         2


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 26-May 28 2022 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 26-May 28 2022

            May 26     May 27     May 28
00-03UT        1          3          4
03-06UT        1          4          4
06-09UT        1          4          3
09-12UT        2          3          4
12-15UT        2          3          2
15-18UT        2          2          3
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        4          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 26-May 28 2022

              May 26  May 27  May 28
S1 or greater   10%      5%      1%

Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm
exists on 26 May due primarily to favorable positioning of Regions 3014
and 3017.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 25 2022 1824 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 26-May 28 2022

              May 26        May 27        May 28
R1-R2           30%           20%           15%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            1%

Rationale: Low levels of solar activity are expected to continue through
28 May with a chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts. A slight
chance for R3 (Strong) remains for the duration of 26 May until Regions
3014 and 3017 exit the western limb.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.3/1N flare at
25/1824 UTC originating from an area of plage near old region 3016 (S19,
L=78). Type II (est. 994 km/s) and IV, as well as a Tenflare at 160 SFU,
radio sweeps were associated with this event. An associated DSF centered
near S20W43 was reported by USAF observatories as well. A subsequent CME
was observed emerging from the southwest limb in NASA C2 coronagraph
imagery beginning around 25/1836 UTC. Initial analysis and modeling
suggests that the bulk of the material will be ahead and south of
Earths orbit with some glancing arrival early on 28 May.

Regions 3014 (N24W81, Dkc/Beta-Delta) and 3017 (N12W65, Dso/Beta) were
responsible for C-class activity. Region 3022 (S08, L=348) decayed to
plage and the remaining active regions on the visible disk were
unremarkable.

.Forecast...
Low levels of solar activity are expected to continue through 28 May
with a chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts. A slight chance
for R3 (Strong) remains for the duration of 26 May until Regions 3014
and 3017 exit the western limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate levels through 28 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels with a slight chance for an S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm on 26 May due primarily to favorable
positioning of Regions 3014 and 3017.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated a SSBC. Total field ranged 2-6 nT and
the Bz component was mostly at or near neutral with a few negligible
southward deflections. Solar wind speed tended to waver between ~340
km/s to 385 km/s. Phi angle was mostly positive until approximately
25/2210 UTC when it became predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to come under the influence of a
pair of negative polarity CH HSS late on 26 May, which is anticipated to
continue through 28 May. Further enhancements to the IMF are likely
early on 28 May with glancing influence from the 25 May CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with active
periods likely 26-27 May due to CH HSS effects. Glancing effects from
the 25 May CME are anticipated to begin early 28 May, causing continued
active conditions with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storming periods.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2022 May 23     165           8          3
2022 May 24     163           5          2
2022 May 25     162           5          2
2022 May 26     158           5          2
2022 May 27     150          10          3
2022 May 28     142          10          3
2022 May 29     138           8          3
2022 May 30     135           5          2
2022 May 31     130           5          2
2022 Jun 01     125           5          2
2022 Jun 02     120           5          2
2022 Jun 03     120           5          2
2022 Jun 04     120           5          2
2022 Jun 05     115           5          2
2022 Jun 06     115           5          2
2022 Jun 07     130           5          2
2022 Jun 08     140           5          2
2022 Jun 09     150           5          2
2022 Jun 10     155           8          3
2022 Jun 11     155          14          4
2022 Jun 12     160          12          3
2022 Jun 13     165          14          4
2022 Jun 14     175           8          3
2022 Jun 15     175          12          3
2022 Jun 16     165          14          4
2022 Jun 17     165          14          3
2022 Jun 18     165          14          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.20b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X
Updated site to handle No DSCOVR data being available. (4th March 2022)
Auto switch to ACE, user warning, and timeshift disabled.

Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey