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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1709
Issue Time: 2022 Nov 29 1806 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2022 Nov 29 1645 UTC
Valid To: 2022 Nov 30 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4191
Issue Time: 2022 Nov 29 1756 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4190
Valid From: 2022 Nov 28 1907 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2022 Nov 30 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1408
Issue Time: 2022 Nov 29 1651 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2022 Nov 29 1647 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1708
Issue Time: 2022 Nov 29 1646 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2022 May 29 1645 UTC
Valid To: 2022 May 30 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3272
Issue Time: 2022 Nov 29 1531 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2022 Nov 29 1425 UTC
Station: GOES16
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4190
Issue Time: 2022 Nov 29 1149 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4189
Valid From: 2022 Nov 28 1907 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2022 Nov 29 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4189
Issue Time: 2022 Nov 29 0527 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4188
Valid From: 2022 Nov 28 1907 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2022 Nov 29 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1707
Issue Time: 2022 Nov 29 0119 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2022 Nov 29 0118 UTC
Valid To: 2022 Nov 29 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 29 November follow.
Solar flux 108 and estimated planetary A-index 26.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 29 November was 3.67.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 28 Nov 024
Estimated Ap 29 Nov 026
Predicted Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 022-025-020

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           40/40/25
Moderate storm        10/10/10
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 30 Nov - 02 Dec
             Nov 30    Dec 01    Dec 02
00-03UT        4.67      3.00      3.67
03-06UT        4.33      3.00      2.33
06-09UT        3.67      3.00      3.67
09-12UT        3.67      3.67      3.67
12-15UT        3.00      3.67      3.67
15-18UT        3.00      4.00      3.67
18-21UT        3.00      4.33      3.67
21-00UT        3.00      5.00      3.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 29-Dec 01 2022 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 29-Dec 01 2022

             Nov 29       Nov 30       Dec 01
00-03UT       4.33         3.67         2.00
03-06UT       3.33         4.00         2.00
06-09UT       3.67         3.33         1.33
09-12UT       3.67         3.00         1.33
12-15UT       2.33         2.67         2.00
15-18UT       2.67         2.33         3.00
18-21UT       3.67         1.67         4.00
21-00UT       4.00         2.33         5.00 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 01 Dec due to CH
HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 29-Dec 01 2022

              Nov 29  Nov 30  Dec 01
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 29-Dec 01 2022

              Nov 29        Nov 30        Dec 01
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Regions 3151 (S16W73, Cso/beta) and 3152
(N27W05, Bxo/beta) were stable and in decay.

A filament/prominence eruption occurred from along the southeast limb
beginning near 28/2049 UTC as seen in GOES/SUVI 304A imagery. This event
was modeled and determined to be a clear miss.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-flares
through 01 Dec.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach high levels on 29
Nov with elevated solar winds and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Earth remained under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar
wind speeds started the day around 540 km/s and increased to near 660
km/s. Total field strength peaked at 9 nT and Bz deviated southward
early and late in the day, reaching a maximum southward deviation of -10
nT at 28/0033 UTC.

.Forecast...
An enhanced solar wind environment is expected to last through 01 Dec
due to the influences of multiple positive polarity CH HSSs.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels
while under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions are expected through 29 Nov with ongoing
CH HSS (+) activity, along with the anticipated arrival of another
positive polarity CH HSS. Isolated G1 (Minor) storming is also possible.
A third CH HSS is forecast to arrive on Day 3 (01 Dec) with stronger
winds, prompting a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm Watch.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2022 Nov 28     105          18          5
2022 Nov 29     110          15          4
2022 Nov 30     115          18          4
2022 Dec 01     115          10          3
2022 Dec 02     115          18          4
2022 Dec 03     115          10          3
2022 Dec 04     120           5          2
2022 Dec 05     125           5          2
2022 Dec 06     125           5          2
2022 Dec 07     125           5          2
2022 Dec 08     125           8          3
2022 Dec 09     125           8          3
2022 Dec 10     125           5          2
2022 Dec 11     120           5          2
2022 Dec 12     115           5          2
2022 Dec 13     110           5          2
2022 Dec 14     105           5          2
2022 Dec 15     105           5          2
2022 Dec 16     105           5          2
2022 Dec 17     105          10          3
2022 Dec 18     100          10          3
2022 Dec 19     100           5          2
2022 Dec 20     100           5          2
2022 Dec 21     100           5          2
2022 Dec 22     100          20          4
2022 Dec 23     100          15          4
2022 Dec 24      95          12          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey