Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1195
Issue Time: 2023 Jun 07 0944 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2023 Jun 07 0637 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 543 km/s
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
Solar-terrestrial indices for 06 June follow.
Solar flux 172 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 07 June was 1.00.
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 05 Jun 005
Estimated Ap 06 Jun 007
Predicted Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 005-012-008
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Active 15/35/20
Minor storm 01/15/10
Moderate storm 01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 07 Jun - 09 Jun
Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09
00-03UT 1.67 2.00 2.67
03-06UT 1.67 2.00 3.00
06-09UT 1.33 1.00 2.00
09-12UT 1.33 2.00 2.00
12-15UT 1.33 3.00 1.33
15-18UT 1.33 4.00 1.33
18-21UT 1.33 3.00 1.67
21-00UT 1.67 3.00 1.67
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 07-Jun 09 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 07-Jun 09 2023
Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09
00-03UT 0.67 2.00 2.67
03-06UT 1.00 2.00 3.00
06-09UT 1.00 1.00 2.00
09-12UT 1.67 2.00 2.00
12-15UT 1.33 3.00 1.33
15-18UT 1.33 4.00 1.33
18-21UT 1.33 3.00 1.67
21-00UT 1.67 3.00 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 07-Jun 09 2023
Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms all three days primarily due to the flare potential
from Region 3327.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 07 2023 1146 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 07-Jun 09 2023
Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater blackouts all three days
primarily due to the flare potential from Region 3327.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M4.7 flare from Region
3327 (S14E34, Dki/beta-gamma-delta) at 07/1146 UTC. The most interesting
regions were 3323 (S08W20, Eki/beta-gamma) and 3327. Region 3323
underwent notable decay, but maintained its mixed polarity signature.
Region 3327 spread out further east-west and developed a delta
configuration in the trailing spot field. The region was also the
primary source of occasional C-class flares, to include a C7.1 at
07/0645 UTC which had an associated Type II sweep (543 km/s) and CME off
the SE. This event is being analyzed at the time of this writing. No
other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance of an X-class flare
(R3-Strong) through 09 Jun.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
levels through 09 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to be at background levels. There is a slight chance of a S1
(Minor) event all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near background levels. Total field strength
was at 5 nT and Bz briefly reached -5 nT but was otherwise in a neutral
or northward orientation. Wind speeds decreased to near 325 km/s. The
phi angle was predominately positive.
.Forecast...
Ambient conditions are most likely for 07 Jun. The periphery of the CME
from 04 Jun is forecast to affect Earth on 08 Jun, with effects
lingering into 09 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are anticipated on 07 Jun. Unsettled to active
levels are forecast on 08-09 Jun with the 04 Jun CME proximity.
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2023 Jun 05 160 12 3
2023 Jun 06 160 8 3
2023 Jun 07 160 5 2
2023 Jun 08 155 5 2
2023 Jun 09 150 5 2
2023 Jun 10 145 5 2
2023 Jun 11 140 10 3
2023 Jun 12 135 12 4
2023 Jun 13 140 8 3
2023 Jun 14 143 5 2
2023 Jun 15 145 5 2
2023 Jun 16 150 5 2
2023 Jun 17 155 5 2
2023 Jun 18 155 22 5
2023 Jun 19 155 15 4
2023 Jun 20 155 12 4
2023 Jun 21 160 10 3
2023 Jun 22 165 5 2
2023 Jun 23 170 5 2
2023 Jun 24 170 5 2
2023 Jun 25 170 5 2
2023 Jun 26 168 5 2
2023 Jun 27 165 10 3
2023 Jun 28 162 12 4
2023 Jun 29 160 5 2
2023 Jun 30 160 5 2
2023 Jul 01 160 8 3
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> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
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