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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4809
Issue Time: 2025 Jan 15 1654 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4808
Valid From: 2025 Jan 15 0138 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 15 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4808
Issue Time: 2025 Jan 15 0854 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4807
Valid From: 2025 Jan 15 0138 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Jan 15 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2519
Issue Time: 2025 Jan 15 0302 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 4807
Issue Time: 2025 Jan 15 0139 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Jan 15 0138 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Jan 15 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 14 January follow.
Solar flux 166 and estimated planetary A-index 12.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 15 January was 3.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 13 Jan 011
Estimated Ap 14 Jan 012
Predicted Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 010-006-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 15 Jan - 17 Jan
             Jan 15    Jan 16    Jan 17
00-03UT        2.67      2.00      2.33
03-06UT        2.67      2.00      2.33
06-09UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
09-12UT        2.33      1.67      1.67
12-15UT        2.33      1.67      2.00
15-18UT        2.33      1.67      2.33
18-21UT        2.00      2.00      2.33
21-00UT        2.67      1.67      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 15-Jan 17 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 15-Jan 17 2025

             Jan 15       Jan 16       Jan 17
00-03UT       3.67         2.00         2.33
03-06UT       3.67         1.67         2.33
06-09UT       3.33         1.33         1.67
09-12UT       2.67         1.00         1.67
12-15UT       2.33         1.00         2.00
15-18UT       2.33         1.00         2.33
18-21UT       2.67         1.67         2.33
21-00UT       2.33         1.67         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 15-Jan 17 2025

              Jan 15  Jan 16  Jan 17
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 15-Jan 17 2025

              Jan 15        Jan 16        Jan 17
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout
events over 15-17 Jan.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low with only C-class flare activity observed. Region
3961 (S09E63, Dao/beta-gamma) produced a C6.3 at 15/0856 UTC as it
rotated further into view. Region 3962 (N17E75, Hsx/alpha) rotated onto
the northeast limb, was numbered, and produced a C6.2 flare.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout events over
15-17 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels through 17 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels through 17 Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced during the period. Total
field varied between 7-9 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 8
nT. Solar wind speed increased from ~440 km/s to ~550 km/s, but has
since decreased to 430 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative throughout
the period.

.Forecast...
Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions due to negative polarity CH HSS
influence are expected to wane through 15 Jan, with a return to nominal
levels on 16 Jan. A new negative polarity CH HSS is expected to enhance
solar wind conditions again on 17 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to CH HSS influence.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue, with active
periods likely, early on 15 Jan under negative polarity CH HSS
influence. By midday on 15 Jan to early on 16 Jan, conditions are
expected to dip to mostly quiet levels before influence from a new
negative polarity CH HSS returns on 17 Jan. Mostly unsettled conditions
are then expected, with a slight chance for an isolated active period
later in the UTC day.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Jan 13     150           6          2
2025 Jan 14     145           8          3
2025 Jan 15     145          10          3
2025 Jan 16     145           6          2
2025 Jan 17     150           8          3
2025 Jan 18     155          10          3
2025 Jan 19     155           8          3
2025 Jan 20     160           8          3
2025 Jan 21     160           5          2
2025 Jan 22     165           5          2
2025 Jan 23     165           5          2
2025 Jan 24     165           5          2
2025 Jan 25     170           5          2
2025 Jan 26     170           5          2
2025 Jan 27     175           5          2
2025 Jan 28     175           5          2
2025 Jan 29     170           5          2
2025 Jan 30     170           5          2
2025 Jan 31     165          20          5
2025 Feb 01     160          20          5
2025 Feb 02     155          20          5
2025 Feb 03     155          15          4
2025 Feb 04     150          12          4
2025 Feb 05     150          12          4
2025 Feb 06     150          10          3
2025 Feb 07     145           5          2
2025 Feb 08     145           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey