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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1311
Issue Time: 2024 Jun 22 0004 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Jun 21 2340 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 590 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 21 June follow.
Solar flux 197 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 22 June was 1.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 20 Jun 007
Estimated Ap 21 Jun 010
Predicted Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 012-010-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Active                35/25/15
Minor storm           15/10/01
Moderate storm        05/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 22 Jun - 24 Jun
             Jun 22    Jun 23    Jun 24
00-03UT        4.00      2.67      1.67
03-06UT        3.33      2.00      2.00
06-09UT        2.33      2.33      1.67
09-12UT        2.33      2.67      1.33
12-15UT        2.00      2.33      0.67
15-18UT        2.00      2.33      1.33
18-21UT        2.33      2.33      1.33
21-00UT        2.67      2.33      1.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 22-Jun 24 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 22-Jun 24 2024

             Jun 22       Jun 23       Jun 24
00-03UT       4.00         2.67         1.67
03-06UT       3.33         2.00         2.00
06-09UT       2.33         2.33         1.67
09-12UT       2.33         2.67         1.33
12-15UT       2.00         2.33         0.67
15-18UT       2.00         2.33         1.33
18-21UT       2.33         2.33         1.33
21-00UT       2.67         2.33         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 22-Jun 24 2024

              Jun 22  Jun 23  Jun 24
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms over the next three days.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 22-Jun 24 2024

              Jun 22        Jun 23        Jun 24
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for R3 (Strong),
radio blackouts are likely over the next three days.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decayed to low levels with C-class flare activity
observed from Regions 3712 (S26W65, Ekc/beta-gamma), 3713 (S14W53,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta, 3716 (N10W59, Ekc/beta-gamma) and 3720 (S05E49,
Cao/beta). Region 3713 produced most of the C-class flare activity
observed this period and increased in size and spot count, and
maintained a complex magnetic field structure. Regions 3712 and 3716
remained largely unchanged from the previous period. New Regions 3721
(N27E59, Hsx/alpha) and 3722 (S09E59, Dso/beta) were numbered this
period. Region 3718 (N12, L=118) decayed to plage late in the period.

Other activity included a Type II radio sweep (Est. 590 km/s) that was
observed beginning at 21/2340 UTC and appeared to be associated with an
event around the Suns E limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in
available imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 22-24 Jun, with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels through 24 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 22-24 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
A nominal solar wind environment prevailed throughout the period. Total
field ranged between 4-6 nT, the Bz component varied between +5/-3 nT
and wind speeds decreased from 450 km/s to 375 km/s. The phi angle was
positive.

.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS influences and mildly enhanced solar wind
conditions are likely over 22-23 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled over
22-23 Jun, with periods of active conditions likely on 22 Jun, due to
negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions are expected on 24
Jun.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2024 Jun 17     175           8          3
2024 Jun 18     180          15          4
2024 Jun 19     180           8          3
2024 Jun 20     180           8          3
2024 Jun 21     175           5          2
2024 Jun 22     175           8          3
2024 Jun 23     190          10          3
2024 Jun 24     190           5          2
2024 Jun 25     180           5          2
2024 Jun 26     175           5          2
2024 Jun 27     180           5          2
2024 Jun 28     190           5          2
2024 Jun 29     180           5          2
2024 Jun 30     185           8          3
2024 Jul 01     190           8          3
2024 Jul 02     195           5          2
2024 Jul 03     190           5          2
2024 Jul 04     185           5          2
2024 Jul 05     190           5          2
2024 Jul 06     180           5          2
2024 Jul 07     180           5          2
2024 Jul 08     165           5          2
2024 Jul 09     165           5          2
2024 Jul 10     180           5          2
2024 Jul 11     170           5          2
2024 Jul 12     170           5          2
2024 Jul 13     170           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey