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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3663
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 01 1330 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3662
Begin Time: 2026 Mar 22 1430 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1413 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 297
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 01 1233 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2026 Apr 01 1206 UTC
Deviation: 19 nT
Station: HAD
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5306
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 01 1210 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2026 Apr 01 1210 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Apr 01 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 252
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 01 1139 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2026 Apr 01 1206 UTC
Valid To: 2026 Apr 01 1236 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2026 Apr 01 1130 UTC
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 269
Issue Time: 2026 Mar 31 2213 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Apr 01:  G2 (Moderate)   Apr 02:  G1 (Minor)   Apr 03:  None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 31 March follow.
Solar flux 141 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 01 April was 2.00.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are likely.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 30 Mar 012
Estimated Ap 31 Mar 030
Predicted Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 024-023-018

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Active                30/30/40
Minor storm           35/35/30
Moderate storm        15/15/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 01 Apr - 03 Apr
             Apr 01    Apr 02    Apr 03
00-03UT        5.00      2.67      3.67
03-06UT        4.67      2.67      3.33
06-09UT        4.33      2.00      3.00
09-12UT        4.00      3.33      3.00
12-15UT        3.00      4.00      3.00
15-18UT        2.67      4.67      3.00
18-21UT        2.00      4.33      3.33
21-00UT        2.33      4.67      3.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 01-Apr 03 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 01-Apr 03 2026

             Apr 01       Apr 02       Apr 03
00-03UT       3.00         2.00         4.33
03-06UT       1.33         1.67         4.00
06-09UT       1.33         1.67         3.33
09-12UT       1.67         2.33         3.33
12-15UT       4.00         3.67         2.67
15-18UT       3.67         5.00 (G1)    2.33
18-21UT       2.33         4.33         2.33
21-00UT       3.67         5.00 (G1)    3.67

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to
active periods for the rest of the UTC day on 01 Apr with G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate)
storming possible as CME effects persist. Active to G1 (Minor) storming
is likely on 02 Apr with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Unsettled to active levels are expected to persist through 03 Apr.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 01-Apr 03 2026

              Apr 01  Apr 02  Apr 03
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 03 Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 01-Apr 03 2026

              Apr 01        Apr 02        Apr 03
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels with R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) flaring, with slight chance for X-class flares through
03 Apr, due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4405.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Low level C-class flares
were produced by Regions 4405 (S27E12, Esi/beta-gamma) and 4409 (N02E31,
Dro/beta). The largest flare was a C1.2 at 01/0651 UTC from Region 4409.
Slight growth was observed in Regions 4409 and 4404 (N15W00, Csi/beta).
The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay.

Other activity included two filament eruptions. The first was an
approximate 5 degree filament eruption, centered near N20W12, occurring
at 01/0202 UTC. The ejecta appeared narrow and directed NNW in SUVI 304
imagery. An associated CME was observed off the NW limb at 01/0312 UTC
in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Initial analysis suggested no Earth-directed
component.

Another larger filament eruption was observed lifting off around 01/0310
UTC in the SW quadrant. The filament appeared to be around 50 degrees
centered near S32W55. Analysis of the CME will be conducted as imagery
becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels with R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) flaring, with slight chance for X-class flares through
03 Apr, due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4405.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
with a peak flux of 1,380 pfu at 31/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels during
the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be reach high levels
on 01-02 Apr and return to moderate to normal levels on 03 Apr. There
is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 03 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels until a IP shock was
observed at the ACE spacecraft at 01/1130 UTC indicating a much later
than expected arrival of the 30 Mar CME. Solar wind speed increased from
approximately 400 km/s to near 500 km/s. Total field increase to 14 nT
while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly
positive.

.Forecast...
Likely weaker CME influence is expected to continue through the rest of
the UTC day on 01 Apr. Further enhancements in solar wind conditions are
anticipated around midday on 02 Apr as a negative polarity CH HSS is
expected to become geoeffective. HSS activity is expected to persist
into 03 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active periods
for the rest of the UTC day on 01 Apr with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
storming possible as CME effects persist. Active to G1 (Minor) storming
is likely on 02 Apr with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Unsettled to active levels are expected to persist through 03 Apr.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Mar 30     155          22          5
2026 Mar 31     152          12          4
2026 Apr 01     155           8          3
2026 Apr 02     155           5          2
2026 Apr 03     150          18          4
2026 Apr 04     145          22          5
2026 Apr 05     145          10          3
2026 Apr 06     135          15          4
2026 Apr 07     125           8          3
2026 Apr 08     118           7          2
2026 Apr 09     120          25          5
2026 Apr 10     110          40          6
2026 Apr 11     112          20          5
2026 Apr 12     115          12          4
2026 Apr 13     115           8          3
2026 Apr 14     110           7          2
2026 Apr 15     115           5          2
2026 Apr 16     115           4          2
2026 Apr 17     120           7          2
2026 Apr 18     122          48          6
2026 Apr 19     124          22          5
2026 Apr 20     130          12          4
2026 Apr 21     140          12          4
2026 Apr 22     150           8          3
2026 Apr 23     155           5          2
2026 Apr 24     160           8          3
2026 Apr 25     155          15          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey