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Ovation: South
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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
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Solar-terrestrial indices for 15 September follow.
Solar flux 75 and estimated planetary A-index 6.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 16 September was 1.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 14 Sep 006
Estimated Ap 15 Sep 005
Predicted Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 005-015-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Active                15/40/45
Minor storm           01/35/40
Moderate storm        01/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 16 Sep - 18 Sep
             Sep 16    Sep 17    Sep 18
00-03UT        2         2         4
03-06UT        1         2         4
06-09UT        1         2         3
09-12UT        1         2         3
12-15UT        1         3         3
15-18UT        1         3         2
18-21UT        2         4         3
21-00UT        2         4         3


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 16-Sep 18 2021 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 16-Sep 18 2021

            Sep 16     Sep 17     Sep 18
00-03UT        1          2          4
03-06UT        2          2          4
06-09UT        1          2          3
09-12UT        0          2          3
12-15UT        1          3          3
15-18UT        1          3          2
18-21UT        2          4          3
21-00UT        2          4          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2021

              Sep 16  Sep 17  Sep 18
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 16-Sep 18 2021

              Sep 16        Sep 17        Sep 18
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and the visible disk was spotless. No new
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low 16-18 Sep.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate on 16-18 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF
strength averaged near 4 nT and the Bz component underwent only weak
deviations.  Solar wind speed decreased from near 400 km/s to ~315 km/s
and the phi angle was predominantly positive, but did undergo some
deviations into a negative sector.

.Forecast...
Mostly background conditions are expected the remainder of 16 Sep. On 17
Sep, moderate enhancements in the solar wind parameters are possible
with an anticipated glancing blow from the 13 Sep CME, combined with the
likely onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions should
persist into 18 Sep as CME/CH HSS effects persist.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected the remainder of 16 Sep. By 17 Sep,
the combined effects from a negative polarity CH HSS and the possible
arrival of the 13 Sep CME could result in unsettled to active
conditions, with a chance for isolated G1 (minor) levels.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2021 Sep 13      86           5          2
2021 Sep 14      82           5          2
2021 Sep 15      82           5          2
2021 Sep 16      80           5          2
2021 Sep 17      78           5          2
2021 Sep 18      78           5          2
2021 Sep 19      78           5          2
2021 Sep 20      76           5          2
2021 Sep 21      76           8          3
2021 Sep 22      76           5          2
2021 Sep 23      76           5          2
2021 Sep 24      76           5          2
2021 Sep 25      76           5          2
2021 Sep 26      76           5          2
2021 Sep 27      78           5          2
2021 Sep 28      80           5          2
2021 Sep 29      82           5          2
2021 Sep 30      86           5          2
2021 Oct 01      86           5          2
2021 Oct 02      86           5          2
2021 Oct 03      86           5          2
2021 Oct 04      86           8          3
2021 Oct 05      86          12          4
2021 Oct 06      86           5          2
2021 Oct 07      86           5          2
2021 Oct 08      86           5          2
2021 Oct 09      86           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.15b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2020 Brendan Davey