TAFS v3.8b
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Alerts:
none
Solar-terrestrial indices for 24 April follow.
Solar flux 69 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 25 April was 0.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Geo Magnetic Forecast:
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 23 Apr 008
Estimated Ap 24 Apr 008
Predicted Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 015-010-005
NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Active 35/25/15
Minor storm 15/05/01
Moderate storm 01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01
NOAA Kp index forecast 25 Apr - 27 Apr
Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr 27
00-03UT 2 3 2
03-06UT 3 3 2
06-09UT 3 3 1
09-12UT 4 2 1
12-15UT 4 3 1
15-18UT 2 3 1
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 3 2 1
Extended Three Day Forecast:
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 25-Apr 27 2019 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 25-Apr 27 2019
Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr 27
00-03UT 1 3 2
03-06UT 2 3 2
06-09UT 2 3 1
09-12UT 2 2 1
12-15UT 4 3 1
15-18UT 2 3 1
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 3 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2019
Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr 27
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 25-Apr 27 2019
Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr 27
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Extended Space Weather Discussion:
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the forecast period (25-27
Apr).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 25 Apr with a chance for high levels on 26-27 Apr due
to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels over the majority of the
period, but have become slightly enhanced during the latter half of the
period to vaules avereraging near 420 km/s. Total field has also
undergone slight enhancement, averaging between 5-7 nT while the Bz
component has only gone brief, weak deflections. Phi angle was oriented
in a mostly negative (towards) solar sector.
.Forecast...
A negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective on 25 Apr
causing an enhancement in solar wind parameters. Solar wind speeds in
the 500-600 km/s range are likely, based on STEREO A data. CH HSS
influence is expected to slowly diminish on 26-27 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Quiet to active conditions are expected on 25 Apr due with the
arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected on 26 Apr as HSS influences slowly diminish. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected to return on 27 Apr.
27 Day Forecast:
Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2019 Apr 22 69 5 2
2019 Apr 23 69 8 3
2019 Apr 24 69 8 3
2019 Apr 25 69 8 3
2019 Apr 26 69 5 2
2019 Apr 27 69 12 4
2019 Apr 28 69 8 3
2019 Apr 29 69 5 2
2019 Apr 30 69 10 3
2019 May 01 69 14 4
2019 May 02 69 12 4
2019 May 03 72 8 3
2019 May 04 76 5 2
2019 May 05 76 10 3
2019 May 06 77 12 3
2019 May 07 78 14 4
2019 May 08 78 8 3
2019 May 09 78 8 3
2019 May 10 78 8 3
2019 May 11 78 5 2
2019 May 12 78 5 2
2019 May 13 78 5 2
2019 May 14 78 5 2
2019 May 15 78 5 2
2019 May 16 78 5 2
2019 May 17 76 5 2
2019 May 18 72 5 2
v3.8x
Various Updates, New TAFS Index Algo. (8/12/18)
v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).
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