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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3666
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 05 0507 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3665
Begin Time: 2026 Apr 03 0920 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2419 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5312
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 05 0248 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5311
Valid From: 2026 Apr 02 0047 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Apr 05 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5311
Issue Time: 2026 Apr 04 2356 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5310
Valid From: 2026 Apr 02 0047 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Apr 05 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 04 April follow.
Solar flux 128 and estimated planetary A-index 16.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 05 April was 2.33.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 03 Apr 049
Estimated Ap 04 Apr 025
Predicted Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 015-010-008

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Active                35/20/20
Minor storm           20/05/05
Moderate storm        05/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 05 Apr - 07 Apr
             Apr 05    Apr 06    Apr 07
00-03UT        3.67      2.67      2.67
03-06UT        3.67      3.00      2.67
06-09UT        3.67      2.67      2.67
09-12UT        2.67      2.67      2.00
12-15UT        2.67      2.00      0.67
15-18UT        2.00      1.67      0.67
18-21UT        2.67      1.67      1.67
21-00UT        2.67      2.67      2.67


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 05-Apr 07 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 05-Apr 07 2026

             Apr 05       Apr 06       Apr 07
00-03UT       3.67         2.67         2.67
03-06UT       3.00         3.00         2.67
06-09UT       3.00         2.67         2.67
09-12UT       3.00         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       2.00         2.00         0.67
15-18UT       1.67         1.67         0.67
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       2.00         2.67         2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 05-Apr 07 2026

              Apr 05  Apr 06  Apr 07
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 05-07 Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 04 2026 2304 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 05-Apr 07 2026

              Apr 05        Apr 06        Apr 07
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for X-class R3 (Strong) events, over 05-07 Apr, driven
primarily by the flare potential of Region 4409.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4409 (N02W21,
Eai/beta-gamma) produced an M1.2/1f flare (R1-Minor) at 04/1211 UTC and
an M1.0 flare (R1) at 04/2304 UTC, in addition to numerous C-class
flares throughout the period. The region exhibited minor decay and
separation among its leader spots. New Region 4412 (N08E15, Bxo/beta)
was numbered and produced a few low-level C-flares late in the period.
The remaining spotted regions on the visible disk were either mostly
stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels, with a slight chance for X-class (R3/Strong) flares, over 05-07
Apr, driven primarily by the flare potential of Region 4409.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 2,420 pfu at 04/1600 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
continued a gradual decline towards background levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 05-07 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 05-07
Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters suggested the return of influence from a negative
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was steady at around 5
nT and no significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Wind speeds
gradually declined from ~650 km/s to between 550-600 km/s by the end of
the period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar
sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 07 Apr
due to waning negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels during the period under
negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels early on 05
Apr, with quiet to unsettled levels expected on 06-07 Apr, as negative
polarity CH HSS influences gradually wane.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Mar 30     155          22          5
2026 Mar 31     152          12          4
2026 Apr 01     155           8          3
2026 Apr 02     155           5          2
2026 Apr 03     150          18          4
2026 Apr 04     145          22          5
2026 Apr 05     145          10          3
2026 Apr 06     135          15          4
2026 Apr 07     125           8          3
2026 Apr 08     118           7          2
2026 Apr 09     120          25          5
2026 Apr 10     110          40          6
2026 Apr 11     112          20          5
2026 Apr 12     115          12          4
2026 Apr 13     115           8          3
2026 Apr 14     110           7          2
2026 Apr 15     115           5          2
2026 Apr 16     115           4          2
2026 Apr 17     120           7          2
2026 Apr 18     122          48          6
2026 Apr 19     124          22          5
2026 Apr 20     130          12          4
2026 Apr 21     140          12          4
2026 Apr 22     150           8          3
2026 Apr 23     155           5          2
2026 Apr 24     160           8          3
2026 Apr 25     155          15          4


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey