Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
none

Solar-terrestrial indices for 05 March follow.
Solar flux 146 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 05 March was 0.33.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 03 Mar 016
Estimated Ap 04 Mar 008
Predicted Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 008-022-016

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Active                30/35/45
Minor storm           01/45/10
Moderate storm        01/05/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 05 Mar - 07 Mar
             Mar 05    Mar 06    Mar 07
00-03UT        2.33      3.33      3.67
03-06UT        2.33      3.33      3.33
06-09UT        1.00      3.00      2.00
09-12UT        1.33      2.67      1.67
12-15UT        1.00      3.00      3.00
15-18UT        2.33      4.00      3.33
18-21UT        2.33      4.67      3.67
21-00UT        3.33      4.33      3.33

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 05-Mar 07 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 05-Mar 07 2026

             Mar 05       Mar 06       Mar 07
00-03UT       1.67         3.33         3.67
03-06UT       0.67         3.33         3.33
06-09UT       1.67         3.00         2.00
09-12UT       0.33         2.67         1.67
12-15UT       1.00         3.00         3.00
15-18UT       2.33         4.00         3.33
18-21UT       2.33         4.67 (G1)    3.67
21-00UT       3.33         4.33         3.33

Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are possible on 06 Mar
due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR ahead of a CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 05-Mar 07 2026

              Mar 05  Mar 06  Mar 07
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 05-Mar 07 2026

              Mar 05        Mar 06        Mar 07
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 07 Mar.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. Flaring was limited to isolated
C- and B-class flares. The C-class flares were produced by Region 4384
(N09E33, Eho/beta) and the plage of decayed Region 4380 (S21, L=205).
X-ray background flux subsided below the C-level. Region 4378
(N16W22, Cso/beta) gained a companion pore just south of its leader
spot. The trailing spots of Region 4381 (N08E09, Cao/beta) decayed
throughout the period, including loss of penumbra. Region 4384 remains
the largest group on the disk, but exhibited further simplification as
its intermediate spots dissipated and its primary trailing spot
decreased in size. A new region 4385 (S08E24, Bxo/beta) emerged in the
southeast as a stable but unremarkable collection of small pores. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 07 Mar.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels with a peak
of 541 pfu observed at 04/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is to remain at moderate levels
05-06 Mar before reaching high levels on 07 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 07 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected weak enhancements, potentially
associated with glancing influence from a positive polarity coronal hole
high-speed
stream (+CH HSS). Solar wind speed was slightly elevated and ranged from
400 to 470 km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) trended slightly downward
throughout the period, averaging 6 nT. The North-South (Bz) component
exhibited several southward deviations with a maximum southward
deflection of -6 nT early in the reporting period. The Phi angle was
primarily in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to return to a more
nominal, ambient regime on 05 Mar. A more significant enhancement is
expected 06-07 Mar with the anticipated onset of a stronger negative
polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 05 Mar
as lingering enhancements subside. G1 (Minor) storming is likely on 06
Mar due to the anticipated onset of a negative polarity coronal hole
high-speed stream (-CH HSS), with active conditions expected 07 Mar as
high-speed stream influences continue.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2026 Mar 02     150          10          3
2026 Mar 03     150          12          4
2026 Mar 04     150           8          3
2026 Mar 05     155           5          2
2026 Mar 06     158           8          3
2026 Mar 07     156           5          2
2026 Mar 08     156           8          3
2026 Mar 09     150          10          3
2026 Mar 10     145          18          4
2026 Mar 11     140          10          3
2026 Mar 12     135          15          4
2026 Mar 13     128          10          3
2026 Mar 14     125          15          4
2026 Mar 15     120          15          4
2026 Mar 16     118          10          3
2026 Mar 17     115          10          3
2026 Mar 18     120          10          3
2026 Mar 19     120          12          3
2026 Mar 20     120          15          4
2026 Mar 21     122          35          6
2026 Mar 22     122          24          5
2026 Mar 23     125          15          4
2026 Mar 24     128          15          4
2026 Mar 25     128          18          4
2026 Mar 26     130          10          3
2026 Mar 27     135           8          3
2026 Mar 28     140           8          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.